Trex Bio (TRXB)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $12.745 | Market Cap: $349.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Trex Bio (TRXB)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $12.745Market Cap: $349.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Key risksTRXB key risks include [1] the potential clinical trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Key risksTRXB key risks include [1] the potential clinical trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Trex Bio (TRXB) stock has lost about 5% since it went public on 10/9/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. IPO Priced at Lower End Amidst Cautious Investor Demand.
TRex Bio (TRXB) priced its initial public offering on October 8, 2026, at $14.00 per share, which was the bottom of its proposed $14-$16 range. The stock concluded its first day of trading on October 9, 2026, exactly at its IPO price, indicating an initial lack of strong investor enthusiasm or immediate upside momentum.
2. Absence of Near-Term Catalysts for Clinical-Stage Company.
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, TRex Bio's stock movement was significantly influenced by the absence of immediate data readouts or other substantial company-specific news within the period following its IPO. Topline data for its lead candidate, TRB-061, from a Phase 1 study for atopic dermatitis, is not anticipated until mid-2027 (fiscal Q2 2027 or Q3 2027). A second candidate, TRB-071, is slated to enter Phase 1 in the first half of 2027. This lack of near-term catalysts in fiscal Q4 2026 contributed to the stock remaining largely at its IPO level.
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Trex Bio (TRXB) stock has lost about 5% since it went public on 10/9/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. IPO Priced at Lower End Amidst Cautious Investor Demand.
TRex Bio (TRXB) priced its initial public offering on October 8, 2026, at $14.00 per share, which was the bottom of its proposed $14-$16 range. The stock concluded its first day of trading on October 9, 2026, exactly at its IPO price, indicating an initial lack of strong investor enthusiasm or immediate upside momentum.
2. Absence of Near-Term Catalysts for Clinical-Stage Company.
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, TRex Bio's stock movement was significantly influenced by the absence of immediate data readouts or other substantial company-specific news within the period following its IPO. Topline data for its lead candidate, TRB-061, from a Phase 1 study for atopic dermatitis, is not anticipated until mid-2027 (fiscal Q2 2027 or Q3 2027). A second candidate, TRB-071, is slated to enter Phase 1 in the first half of 2027. This lack of near-term catalysts in fiscal Q4 2026 contributed to the stock remaining largely at its IPO level.
3. Selective Investor Environment for Biotech IPOs and Macroeconomic Caution.
The broader market environment in October 2026, while seeing a return of biotech IPOs, was characterized by selective investor demand and macroeconomic caution. Investors favored "revenue-generating biotech" and companies with strong "platform stories." As a clinical-stage company with no reported revenue, TRex Bio likely faced this selective sentiment. Furthermore, general "macro caution" and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes (following a 25 basis point hike in September 2026) contributed to a more reserved market for new listings, preventing significant upward movement for TRXB.
4. Limited Analyst Coverage Post-IPO.
In the short period since its October 9, 2026 IPO, TRex Bio had not yet seen the establishment of comprehensive analyst coverage or consensus price targets. This absence of widely circulated external valuation benchmarks typically provided by financial analysts for newly public companies meant investors lacked additional guidance that could otherwise drive price discovery and movement beyond the initial IPO price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRXB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.7% | -1.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRXB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 30.5% | -1.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRXB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 33.2% | -1.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRXB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 59.5% | -1.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRXB Return | - | - | - | - | - | -3% | -3% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 13% | 21% | 9% | 47% | 45% | 289% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRXB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 58% | 57% | 55% | 65% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRXB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -27% | -22% | -19% | -22% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABBV, AMGN, JNJ, LLY, ROIV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TRXB has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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TRXB has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trex Bio (TRXB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Regeneron for T regulatory cell (Treg) therapies.
2. Like AbbVie, but focused entirely on engineering T regulatory cells to treat inflammatory diseases.
3. A more specialized Amgen, developing antibody drugs that rebalance the immune system through T regulatory cells.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- TRXB002: A clinical-stage antibody targeting CD8a, designed to treat inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) by restoring immune balance.
- TRXB005: A preclinical-stage anti-CD8a antibody program being developed for various autoimmune diseases.
- Discovery Pipeline: Earlier-stage research and development efforts aimed at identifying novel therapeutic targets and compounds for inflammatory and autoimmune conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, Trex Bio (TRXB) is focused on the discovery and development of novel therapeutics for autoimmune diseases, inflammatory disorders, and cancer. At its current stage, Trex Bio does not have major commercial customers who purchase its products.
Companies like Trex Bio primarily engage in research and development, with their operations funded through investment capital (e.g., venture capital, public offerings). They do not currently have products on the market for sale to other companies or individuals.
If and when their drug candidates successfully complete clinical trials and receive regulatory approval, Trex Bio may then:
- License their therapies to larger pharmaceutical companies for commercialization. In this scenario, the licensing partners would become their "customers" in terms of receiving milestone payments and royalties.
- Commercialize the drugs themselves. In this case, their direct customers would typically be pharmaceutical distributors, hospitals, or pharmacies, rather than individual patients.
However, at its current stage, Trex Bio does not sell products to other companies or individuals and therefore does not have major customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Johnston Erwin, Chief Executive Officer
Johnston Erwin has served as Chief Executive Officer of TRex Bio since 2021. Prior to joining TRex Bio, he spent 36 years at Eli Lilly and Company, holding various leadership roles, including leading Lilly's internal venture capital investment team. He also serves as a Board Member.
Brandon Hants, Chief Financial Officer
Brandon Hants was appointed Chief Financial Officer of TRex Bio on April 8, 2025. He possesses over 25 years of experience in finance, accounting, and corporate functions, with a focus on scaling biopharma and life sciences organizations for growth. His previous roles include serving as CFO at Singulex and holding positions of increasing responsibility at Novartis Vaccines & Diagnostics and Genentech.
Ariella Kelman, Chief Medical Officer
Ariella Kelman joined TRex Bio as Chief Medical Officer on April 8, 2025. She is a rheumatologist with more than 20 years of experience in leading clinical development and global programs for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Before TRex Bio, she was CMO at Biora Therapeutics and led clinical development at Human Immunology Biosciences. Dr. Kelman also spent 15 years at Genentech/Roche, where she led clinical development programs for new medicines and was global head of bioethics for Roche.
Laura Berner, Chief Operating Officer
Laura Berner holds the position of Chief Operating Officer at TRex Bio. She also serves as an investor contact for the company.
Ali Zarrin, Chief Scientific Officer
Ali Zarrin is the Chief Scientific Officer at TRex Bio.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Trex Bio (TRXB) are as follows:
- Clinical Trial Failure Risk: Trex Bio is an early clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with its lead candidate, TRB-061, currently in Phase 1 trials. At this stage, the primary focus is on safety and tolerability, and the efficacy of its drug candidates remains unknown. The potential for trial failure is considered the most significant risk to the business.
- Future Financing Risks: As a clinical-stage biopharma company, Trex Bio will likely require substantial additional funding beyond its initial public offering (IPO), which is projected to cover approximately 18 months of operations. The company faces ongoing risks related to securing future financing, with an ideal scenario being the achievement of a significant clinical milestone before seeking further equity investment to enhance its valuation.
- Intense Market Competition: Trex Bio operates in a highly competitive landscape, particularly in the development of treatments for atopic dermatitis and other immune-mediated conditions. The company faces strong competition from other biotechnology firms that are also developing next-generation drugs in this therapeutic area.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Trex Bio (TRXB) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing immunoregulatory medicines for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Their pipeline targets conditions such as atopic dermatitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and lupus with cutaneous involvement.
Product Market Sizes:
- Atopic Dermatitis (TRB-061): The total addressable market for atopic dermatitis impacts approximately 16 million U.S. adults and around 225 million people globally. The market was valued at $19.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $37.3 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2026 to 2033. In 2025, the North American market alone constituted 44.6% of the revenue share.
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) (TRB-071): Inflammatory bowel disease affects approximately 3 million individuals in the U.S. and is anticipated to exceed 10 million worldwide by 2032.
- Lupus with Cutaneous Involvement (TRB-051 - partnered with Eli Lilly): Market size information specifically for "lupus with cutaneous involvement" was not available in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Trex Bio (TRXB) over the next 2-3 years:
- Advancement and Potential Commercialization of Lead Candidate TRB-061: TRex Bio's most advanced wholly-owned product candidate, TRB-061, is a TNFR2 agonist currently in Phase 1b clinical development for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD). The company anticipates topline data from this trial by mid-2027 and plans to initiate Phase 2 trials for atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata. Successful progression through clinical trials and eventual market approval and commercialization of TRB-061 for these indications would be a primary driver of significant future revenue.
- Progression of TRB-071 into Clinical Development and Beyond: TRex Bio is also advancing TRB-071, a CD30 agonist, which is currently in IND-enabling studies with a Phase 1 trial planned for the first half of 2027. TRB-071 is being developed for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and is designed to augment tissue regulatory T cells (Tregs) and modulate inflammatory signaling. Successful clinical development and subsequent commercialization of TRB-071 would contribute to future revenue growth.
- Milestone and Royalty Payments from the Eli Lilly Collaboration (TRB-051): The company has an ongoing partnership with Eli Lilly for TRB-051, a program initially identified using TRex Bio's Deep Biology platform. Eli Lilly intends to initiate a Phase 2a clinical trial for TRB-051 in lupus with cutaneous involvement in the second half of 2026. Under this collaboration, TRex Bio is eligible to receive significant development, commercial, and sales milestone payments, as well as tiered royalties on net sales, which would represent a notable source of future revenue.
- Expansion of Pipeline through the Deep Biology Platform: TRex Bio's proprietary "Deep Biology platform" is central to its drug discovery efforts, utilizing human tissue data and computational analysis to identify therapeutic targets and develop new immunoregulatory medicines. The ongoing productivity of this platform in generating new wholly-owned or partnered preclinical and clinical candidates beyond TRB-061 and TRB-071 will be crucial for long-term revenue diversification and growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- TRex Bio has raised a total of $222 million in funding over various rounds as a private company.
- In November 2024, the company closed an oversubscribed $84 million Series B financing round.
- TRex Bio secured an additional $50 million in financing in January 2026, serving as an extension to its Series B round.
- The company filed for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in September 2026, aiming to raise up to $100 million.
Inbound Investments
- TRex Bio has attracted a total of $222 million in investments from various parties.
- Key investors include Eli Lilly and Company, SV Health Investors, Pfizer Ventures, Johnson & Johnson Innovation, Alexandria Venture Investments, Delos Capital, Polaris Partners, Avego BioScience Capital, Agent Capital, Affinity Asset Advisors, Balyasny Asset Management, and Janus Henderson Investors.
- Eli Lilly and Company has expressed a non-binding interest to purchase up to 19.9% of Trex Bio's common stock during the upcoming IPO.
Capital Expenditures
- Proceeds from the $84 million Series B financing in November 2024 were allocated to advance TRB-061 through early clinical proof of concept and expand the company's pipeline, including the early development of TRB-071.
- The $50 million financing obtained in January 2026 was designated to support the continued clinical development of TRB-061.
- The anticipated proceeds from the IPO in 2026 are planned to fund Phase 2 studies for its lead asset (TRB-061), initiate a Phase 1 clinical study for TRB-071, and cover general corporate purposes.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 288.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 526.8 |
| Rev LTM | 66,014 |
| Op Inc LTM | 23,749 |
| FCF LTM | 11,689 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,134 |
| CFO LTM | 20,089 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,580 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 45.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.55 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | ||
| DMA Trend | ||
| Distance from DMA | ||
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.8% | 65.8% |
| Downside Capture | ||
| Upside Capture | ||
| Correlation (S&P 500) |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.57 | -0.96 | 0.86 | 2.36 | 1.10 | -1.89 |
| Up Beta | -1.92 | -1.50 | 3.31 | 1.00 | -2.60 | 2.26 |
| Down Beta | 3.81 | -4.74 | 2.45 | 0.21 | 1.46 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | 316% | 158% | 99% | 38% | 15% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Down Capture | 268% | 146% | 115% | 59% | 34% | 20% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRXB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRXB | -3.2% | 65.8% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 33.1% | 16.7% | 1.53 | -1.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | -32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 29.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRXB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRXB | -0.7% | 65.8% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 15.3% | 0.40 | -1.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | -11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | -32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 29.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRXB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRXB | -0.3% | 65.8% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.5% | 16.8% | 0.61 | -1.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | -11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | -32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 29.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 10/09/2026 | 424B4 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 10/09/2026 | 424B4 |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandria, Venture Investments, Llc | Direct | Buy | 10152026 | 14.00 | 178,571 | 2,499,994 | 18,851,014 | Form | |
| 2 | Svlsf, Vi, Llc | SV Life Sciences Fund VI, L.P. | Buy | 10132026 | 14.00 | 89,783 | 1,256,962 | 3,008,166 | Form | |
| 3 | Svlsf, Vi, Llc | SV Life Sciences Fund VI Strategic Partners, L.P. | Buy | 10132026 | 14.00 | 3,074 | 43,036 | 102,984 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandria, Venture Investments, Llc | Direct | Buy | 10152026 | 14.00 | 178,571 | 2,499,994 | 18,851,014 | Form | |
| 2 | Svlsf, Vi, Llc | SV Life Sciences Fund VI, L.P. | Buy | 10132026 | 14.00 | 89,783 | 1,256,962 | 3,008,166 | Form | |
| 3 | Svlsf, Vi, Llc | SV Life Sciences Fund VI Strategic Partners, L.P. | Buy | 10132026 | 14.00 | 3,074 | 43,036 | 102,984 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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