TPG (TPG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.2 | Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
TPG (TPG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.2Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Second Quarter 2025 Performance and Outlook
TPG reported outstanding second quarter 2025 results, with Distributable Earnings increasing by 26% year-over-year. The firm also achieved its second-highest fundraising quarter in history and its strongest credit fundraising quarter ever, signaling significant momentum and a positive outlook for the latter half of the year.
2. Successful $4.8 Billion Growth Fund Closure
TPG successfully amassed $4.8 billion for its latest Growth VI fund, exceeding its initial target of $4 billion. This achievement, announced on August 13, 2025, demonstrated robust capital formation capabilities and investor confidence in TPG's strategy focusing on rapidly growing earlier-stage companies.
3. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss and Dividend Reduction
TPG reported its third-quarter 2025 results, which slightly missed analyst expectations for both earnings per share ($0.53 actual vs. $0.55 estimate) and revenue ($509.4 million actual vs. $510.3 million estimate). Following these results, TPG announced a reduction in its quarterly dividend from $0.59 to $0.45 per share, with the ex-dividend date on November 14, 2025.
4. Strategic Multi-Billion Dollar Joint Venture in AI Data Centers
TPG entered a significant multi-billion dollar joint venture with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to establish HyperVault, a new platform dedicated to developing energy-efficient AI Data Centers in India. This initiative involves an initial equity commitment of $2 billion from TPG and TCS, with plans to raise an additional $4-5 billion in debt, marking a substantial strategic expansion into the rapidly growing artificial intelligence infrastructure sector.
5. Expansion into Renewable Energy with Vayona Energy Formation
TPG, as part of a consortium with MAVCO, successfully completed the acquisition of Siemens Gamesa's onshore wind business in India and Sri Lanka. This acquisition led to the formation of Vayona Energy, a new independent company focused on wind turbine manufacturing and renewable energy projects. This deal represents the inaugural investment from TPG Rise Climate's Global South Initiative, underscoring TPG's commitment to scaling climate solutions in emerging markets.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPG Return | - | - | - | 62% | 51% | -4% | 135% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPG Win Rate | - | - | 45% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -8% | -10% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
TPG's stock fell -40.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2022. A -40.0% loss requires a 66.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TPG
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 60.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 44 |
| FCF LTM | 70 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 125 |
| CFO LTM | 77 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 132 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 3.6 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3292022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |