Carlyle (CG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $56.34 | Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Carlyle (CG)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $56.34Market Cap: $20.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -12.2% movement in Carlyle (CG) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Significant Revenue Shortfall in Q3 2025: Carlyle's third-quarter 2025 revenue, reported on October 31, 2025, reached $782.5 million, which notably missed analysts' expectations of $987.3 million, representing a 20.7% shortfall. This figure also marked a 12.6% decline compared to the previous year. The significant miss in revenue was identified as a primary factor contributing to negative investor sentiment, leading to a 5.7% drop in the stock price on the day of the earnings announcement.
2. Substantial Decline in U.S. GAAP Net Income: For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Carlyle reported a U.S. GAAP net income of $0.9 million. This represented a drastic decrease when compared to the $595.7 million reported in the same period of the prior year, indicating a significant reduction in GAAP-based profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CG Return | 2% | 78% | -44% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 113% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 34% | -13% | 27% | 77% | 44% | 337% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CG Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 54% | 45% | 57% | 70% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CG Max Drawdown | -46% | -1% | -53% | -13% | -6% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -4% | -33% | -12% | -9% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOOD, LPLA, JEF, SEIC, MORN. See CG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1008 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 120 days |
Compare to HOOD, LPLA, JEF, SEIC, MORN
In The Past
Carlyle's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Carlyle Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Day 9 of Gains Streak for Carlyle Stock with 19% Return (vs. 18% YTD) [7/10/2025] | |||
| CG Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Carlyle Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 30.7% in 2024 and 5.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Carlyle (CG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Carlyle (CG) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Carlyle Market Price | Market Price | ||
| Carlyle vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Carlyle Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 18th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 18th, 2025 | ||
| CG Stock Up 19% after 9-Day Win Streak | July 11th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | CG | Carlyle | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 15.9% | 75.9% | -9.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | CG | Carlyle | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 15.9% | 75.9% | -9.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carlyle
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 109.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,596 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,816 |
| FCF LTM | 194 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 418 |
| CFO LTM | 551 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 514 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.5 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.5 |
| P/E | 26.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Private Equity | 2,278 | 3,180 | 4,073 | 1,525 | 1,529 |
| Global Credit | 779 | 800 | 451 | 414 | 350 |
| Consolidated Funds | 570 | 311 | 253 | 227 | 199 |
| Global Investment Solutions | 348 | 422 | 426 | 351 | 231 |
| Other income (loss) | 7 | -42 | 2 | -21 | -24 |
| Reconciling Items | -1,011 | -274 | 3,579 | 418 | 1,068 |
| Total | 2,971 | 4,397 | 8,785 | 2,913 | 3,353 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |