Tearsheet

Carlyle (CG)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $56.34 | Market Cap: $20.3 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Carlyle (CG)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $56.34
Market Cap: $20.3 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit.
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, and Private Credit.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -56%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 67%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -12.2% movement in Carlyle (CG) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Significant Revenue Shortfall in Q3 2025: Carlyle's third-quarter 2025 revenue, reported on October 31, 2025, reached $782.5 million, which notably missed analysts' expectations of $987.3 million, representing a 20.7% shortfall. This figure also marked a 12.6% decline compared to the previous year. The significant miss in revenue was identified as a primary factor contributing to negative investor sentiment, leading to a 5.7% drop in the stock price on the day of the earnings announcement.

2. Substantial Decline in U.S. GAAP Net Income: For the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, Carlyle reported a U.S. GAAP net income of $0.9 million. This represented a drastic decrease when compared to the $595.7 million reported in the same period of the prior year, indicating a significant reduction in GAAP-based profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CG Return2%78%-44%43%28%14%113%
Peers Return15%34%-13%27%77%44%337%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CG Win Rate67%75%42%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%54%45%57%70%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CG Max Drawdown-46%-1%-53%-13%-6%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-4%-33%-12%-9%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOOD, LPLA, JEF, SEIC, MORN. See CG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven136.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1008 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven308 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven271 days120 days

Compare to HOOD, LPLA, JEF, SEIC, MORN


In The Past

Carlyle's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carlyle (CG)

Better Bets than Carlyle (CG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
CG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020CGCarlyleDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
15.9%75.9%-9.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
CG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020CGCarlyleDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
15.9%75.9%-9.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carlyle

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CGHOODLPLAJEFSEICMORNMedian
NameCarlyle Robinhoo.LPL Fina.Jefferie.SEI Inve.Mornings. 
Mkt Price56.30137.08369.1858.8281.25216.94109.17
Mkt Cap20.3121.929.512.710.09.116.5
Rev LTM2,9884,20414,12610,7262,2472,3953,596
Op Inc LTM-2,0041,8164,6936114711,816
FCF LTM-2,5171,119-5-1,971622394194
FCF 3Y Avg-9911,219631-1,927504332418
CFO LTM-2,4331,175564-1,750677539551
CFO 3Y Avg-9191,2601,090-1,735563466514

Growth & Margins

CGHOODLPLAJEFSEICMORNMedian
NameCarlyle Robinhoo.LPL Fina.Jefferie.SEI Inve.Mornings. 
Rev Chg LTM32.4%74.6%29.2%11.4%9.4%7.8%20.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.3%47.5%20.0%14.6%3.6%8.9%11.7%
Rev Chg Q-55.7%100.0%30.8%12.0%7.7%8.4%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-19.4%17.9%6.8%3.0%1.9%2.0%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM-47.7%12.9%43.8%27.2%19.7%27.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-9.9%15.1%43.7%24.7%15.6%15.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-5.1%-0.3%-0.9%0.2%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-81.4%27.9%4.0%-16.3%30.1%22.5%13.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-31.8%47.4%10.7%-19.1%27.1%20.9%15.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-84.2%26.6%-0.0%-18.4%27.7%16.5%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-34.7%45.9%6.7%-21.2%24.3%14.8%10.7%

Valuation

CGHOODLPLAJEFSEICMORNMedian
NameCarlyle Robinhoo.LPL Fina.Jefferie.SEI Inve.Mornings. 
Mkt Cap20.3121.929.512.710.09.116.5
P/S7.630.32.11.34.64.14.4
P/EBIT-63.516.53.211.717.716.5
P/E34.158.026.819.415.026.026.4
P/CFO-9.3108.453.2-8.015.418.116.8
Total Yield5.2%1.7%4.0%5.2%7.9%4.6%4.9%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.0%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.9%5.2%3.7%-16.7%5.5%2.9%3.3%
D/E0.60.10.21.70.00.10.2
Net D/E0.40.00.10.9-0.10.10.1

Returns

CGHOODLPLAJEFSEICMORNMedian
NameCarlyle Robinhoo.LPL Fina.Jefferie.SEI Inve.Mornings. 
1M Rtn10.8%0.2%-1.3%11.8%-0.5%2.5%1.3%
3M Rtn-12.7%33.2%2.6%-8.8%-8.9%-15.8%-8.9%
6M Rtn26.0%89.0%-2.7%16.9%-4.1%-29.0%7.1%
12M Rtn9.7%242.7%13.3%-21.9%-0.9%-38.3%4.4%
3Y Rtn103.4%1,317.6%67.5%85.9%36.9%-8.2%76.7%
1M Excs Rtn9.5%-1.1%-2.6%10.5%-1.7%1.2%0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.9%29.6%5.2%-12.5%-12.6%-21.3%-12.5%
6M Excs Rtn10.5%73.6%-18.2%1.4%-19.6%-44.5%-8.4%
12M Excs Rtn-3.9%251.0%1.0%-36.1%-13.1%-51.8%-8.5%
3Y Excs Rtn35.4%1,320.0%-17.3%6.5%-35.4%-79.4%-5.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Global Private Equity2,2783,1804,0731,5251,529
Global Credit779800451414350
Consolidated Funds570311253227199
Global Investment Solutions348422426351231
Other income (loss)7-422-21-24
Reconciling Items-1,011-2743,5794181,068
Total2,9714,3978,7852,9133,353


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,976,262
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.3%
Average Daily Volume3,650,281
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.55
Basic Shares Quantity360,065,837
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-K 12/31/2021