Tutor Perini (TPC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.79 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Tutor Perini (TPC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.79Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 148% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 152% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 23% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 148% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 152% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The user requested an explanation for a 14.7% stock movement for Tutor Perini (TPC) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This time period is in the future. As an AI, I cannot access or predict future stock market data or events.
However, I can provide information about Tutor Perini's performance and outlook based on the most recent available financial reports and news, which extend into early 2025 in some cases. This information may provide context about the company's trajectory and potential drivers for future stock movements, although it cannot directly explain a specific future 14.7% change.
Based on the available information up to early 2025, here are key points regarding Tutor Perini's recent performance and future outlook:
1. Record Operating Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
Tutor Perini reported record operating cash flow of $308.5 million in 2023, increasing to $503.5 million in 2024. This strong cash generation enabled the company to accelerate debt reduction, reducing total debt by $477 million (52%) from the end of 2023 through February 27, 2025, including the full payoff of its Term Loan B. This significant improvement in financial health could positively influence investor sentiment.
2. Substantial Backlog Growth and New Project Awards
The company's backlog grew significantly, reaching a record $10.2 billion as of December 31, 2023, and further increasing to $18.7 billion as of December 31, 2024, an 84% year-over-year increase. This growth was driven by $12.8 billion in new awards and contract adjustments in 2024, including major projects like the $3.76 billion Manhattan Jail project and the $1.66 billion City Center Guideway and Stations project. This robust backlog provides strong revenue visibility and potential for future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPC Return | 1% | -4% | -39% | 21% | 166% | 175% | 417% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 32% | 8% | 21% | 38% | 28% | 236% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPC Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 40% | 44% | 46% | 44% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPC Max Drawdown | -77% | -6% | -55% | -33% | -11% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -6% | -18% | -10% | -7% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, FLR, GVA, CDNL, KWF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 296.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 395 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 413.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1892 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 586.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to DY, FLR, GVA, CDNL, KWF
In The Past
Tutor Perini's stock fell -74.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -74.8% loss requires a 296.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tutor Perini
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 5,048 |
| Op Inc LTM | 177 |
| FCF LTM | 292 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 222 |
| CFO LTM | 430 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 344 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 46.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 244.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 38.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 184.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |