Tutor Perini (TPC)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $93.7 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Tutor Perini (TPC)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $93.7Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 326% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksTPC key risks include [1] execution challenges and cost overruns on its large, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 61x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 326% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksTPC key risks include [1] execution challenges and cost overruns on its large, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Optimistic 2026 Guidance.
Tutor Perini reported robust adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07 for Q4 2025, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.92 per share. Revenue for the quarter increased by 41.2% year-over-year to $1.51 billion, also exceeding consensus expectations. The company achieved record operating cash flow of $748.1 million in 2025, marking a 49% increase year-over-year, and reduced its total debt by 24%. Additionally, Tutor Perini provided positive full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance ranging from $4.90 to $5.30, which exceeded Wall Street's anticipated $4.82 per share.
2. Significant New Project Awards.
The company secured substantial new contracts during the period, bolstering its backlog. A joint venture involving Tutor Perini Corporation was awarded a contract valued at over $1.2 billion for a segment of the Hudson River Tunnel Project in Manhattan, New York. Furthermore, its subsidiary, Perini Management Services, Inc., was awarded the right to compete for task orders under a $2 billion U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Energy Resilience and Conservation Investment Program multiple-award task order contract (MATOC) over a ten-year period, focusing on new electrical and water infrastructure construction.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.8% change in TPC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.82 | 93.68 | 18.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,103 | 5,543 | 8.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.9 | 9.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPC | 18.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 43.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.8% | 52.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.3% change in TPC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.25 | 93.68 | 39.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,771 | 5,543 | 16.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 0.9 | 20.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 53 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPC | 39.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 47.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 337.3% change in TPC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 243.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.42 | 93.68 | 337.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,327 | 5,543 | 28.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.9 | 243.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 337.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPC | 337.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.6% | 46.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1670.6% change in TPC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 1140.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.29 | 93.68 | 1670.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,791 | 5,543 | 46.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1140.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 53 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1670.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TPC | 1670.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.9% | 46.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPC Return | -4% | -39% | 21% | 166% | 177% | 39% | 619% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 8% | 5% | 31% | 0% | 19% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPC Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 55% | 52% | 63% | 52% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPC Max Drawdown | -6% | -55% | -33% | -11% | -19% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -20% | -20% | -9% | -25% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: J, ACM, FLR, KBR, MTZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 310.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Tutor Perini's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | TPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 310.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 327.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5954 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6607 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Tutor Perini's stock fell -15.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tutor Perini (TPC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tutor Perini (TPC):
Kiewit for major public infrastructure and large commercial buildings
A US-focused, publicly traded Bechtel
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Infrastructure Construction: Construction and rehabilitation of essential public works such as highways, bridges, tunnels, mass-transit systems, and water management facilities.
- Specialized Building Construction: General contracting services for diverse building projects including hospitality, healthcare, commercial offices, government, and education facilities.
- Specialty Trade Services: Installation and maintenance of electrical, mechanical, plumbing, fire protection, and HVAC systems for industrial, commercial, and hospitality markets.
- Construction Management & Project Planning: Comprehensive services including general contracting, pre-construction planning, project scheduling, and self-performed construction tasks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tutor Perini (TPC) primarily serves other companies and public agencies, rather than individuals. The provided background description does not list specific customer names. However, based on the types of projects and markets it serves, Tutor Perini's major customer categories include:
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Public Agencies and Government Entities: These encompass federal, state, and local government bodies. They commission projects for public works construction, infrastructure (including highways, bridges, tunnels, mass-transit systems), military defense facilities, water management and wastewater treatment facilities, government facilities, and correctional facilities.
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Private Companies: Tutor Perini serves a diverse range of private sector clients across various specialized building markets. These include:
- Companies in the hospitality and gaming industry (e.g., for hotels, casinos, and resorts).
- Clients in the transportation sector (e.g., for private transportation hubs).
- Health care providers (e.g., for hospitals and medical facilities).
- Companies requiring commercial offices, industrial facilities, as well as facilities for biotech, pharmaceutical, and technology industries.
- Organizations in the sports and entertainment sector.
- Educational institutions (often private universities or large school systems).
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Ronald N. Tutor, Executive Chairman
Ronald N. Tutor has served as the Executive Chairman of Tutor Perini Corporation's Board of Directors since January 2025. Prior to this, he served as Chief Executive Officer since the September 2008 merger of Tutor-Saliba Corporation and Perini Corporation. Before the merger, Mr. Tutor was the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Tutor-Saliba Corporation, which he co-founded in 1972, developing it into a prominent heavy civil construction firm. He also served as the Chief Executive Officer of Perini Corporation from March 2000, Chairman of its Board from July 1999, and a director since January 1997, having led its recapitalization in 1997. In 2010, Mr. Tutor was a lead investor in the $650 million acquisition of Miramax Films from The Walt Disney Company, serving as chairman until selling his stake in 2013 to the Qatar Investment Authority. He joined his father's firm, A.G. Tutor Company, in 1963, which was founded in 1949.
Gary G. Smalley, Chief Executive Officer and President
Gary G. Smalley has served as Chief Executive Officer and a member of Tutor Perini Corporation's Board of Directors since January 2025. He was also the President of the company from November 2023 through December 2024. Previously, he held the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Tutor Perini after joining the company in September 2015. Before his tenure at Tutor Perini, Mr. Smalley spent nearly 24 years at Fluor Corporation, a multinational engineering and construction firm, where he held various financial management roles. His roles at Fluor included Senior Vice President and Controller for seven years, Group Chief Financial Officer for one of Fluor's business segments, and Vice President of Internal Audit, with experience in financial operations across Australia, Chile, Mexico, and the United States. He began his career with audit positions at Ernst & Young and J.P. Stevens and Company.
Ryan J. Soroka, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ryan J. Soroka has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Tutor Perini Corporation since November 2023. He has held various financial management roles of increasing responsibility within the company, including Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer since April 2017, Vice President of Finance Operations from January 2015 to April 2017, and Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontier-Kemper Constructors, Inc., a subsidiary of Tutor Perini, from October 2013 to November 2016. Mr. Soroka initially joined Tutor Perini as Director of Technical Accounting in June 2011.
Anthony C. Fiore, Executive Vice President, Tax, Treasurer, and Corporate Secretary
Anthony C. Fiore has served as Executive Vice President, Tax, Treasurer, and Corporate Secretary of Tutor Perini Corporation since January 2020. He is a Certified Public Accountant with 31 years of global finance experience across multinational publicly held companies in various industries. Prior to joining Tutor Perini, Mr. Fiore was the Chief Tax Officer at XPO Logistics and, before that, served as Senior Vice President, Global Tax, Insurance and Risk Management at The Hertz Corporation for nearly a decade. He started his career in the tax practice of Arthur Andersen & Co.
James A. Frost, President and Chief Operating Officer - Civil Group
James A. Frost serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of the Civil Group. He originally joined Tutor-Saliba Corporation, a predecessor company to Tutor Perini, in 1987. During his time at Tutor-Saliba, Mr. Frost successfully managed numerous projects, including public works buildings, institutional buildings, and wastewater treatment plants.
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The key risks to Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) are primarily associated with the complex nature of large-scale construction projects, including ongoing legal disputes, the inherent challenges of executing mega-projects, and its dependence on government contracts.
- Legal Disputes and Contractual Challenges: Tutor Perini frequently faces legal disputes and arbitration proceedings with clients, subcontractors, and suppliers. These disputes often concern contract details, cost overruns, and project delays. Adverse outcomes from such litigation can result in significant financial charges, reduced revenue, and a substantial tie-up of working capital. While the company is actively working to resolve "legacy disputes" and anticipates reduced earnings volatility, these contractual challenges remain a persistent issue within the construction industry, particularly for complex, long-term projects.
- Execution Risk on Large, Complex Projects: Tutor Perini's business model increasingly involves taking on mega-projects, which are inherently complex and carry significant execution risks. Successfully converting its substantial project backlog into profitable revenue poses a strategic and operational challenge due to the immense scale, intricate planning, and extended timelines of these projects. Investors have expressed concerns regarding "mega-project concentration risk," highlighting the potential for issues in managing these large endeavors to impact overall profitability. Historically, the accurate estimation and smooth management of multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects have proven difficult, often leading to disputes and write-downs.
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Macroeconomic/Geopolitical Factors: A significant portion of Tutor Perini's revenue, particularly from its high-margin Civil segment, relies on securing contracts from federal, state, and local government agencies for public works and infrastructure projects. A decline in demand for new government contracts, driven by factors such as reduced infrastructure spending or shifts in government budgetary priorities, could negatively impact the company's revenue. Furthermore, broader macroeconomic uncertainties or geopolitical events (such as international conflicts) could divert government funds away from infrastructure projects towards other areas like military spending, thereby affecting Tutor Perini's opportunities.
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Tutor Perini Corporation operates within vast global and U.S. construction markets across its Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors segments.
Overall Construction Market
- The global construction market is expected to grow from US$11.39 trillion in 2024 to US$16.11 trillion in 2030. Other estimates place the global construction market at nearly $16.04 trillion in 2024, projected to grow to $20.79 trillion in 2029.
- The U.S. construction market was valued at approximately USD 2.2 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3.39 trillion by 2034.
Civil Segment
This segment includes public works construction, infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, mass-transit systems, military defense facilities, water management, and wastewater treatment facilities), drilling, foundation, and excavation support.
- The global infrastructure construction market is expected to increase from USD 3.82 trillion in 2025 to USD 5.49 trillion by 2031.
- The U.S. infrastructure market was valued at USD 1.42 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2.26 trillion by 2034. Significant federal funding, such as the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, adds US$550 billion through 2028.
Building Segment
This segment encompasses various specialized building markets, including hospitality and gaming, transportation, health care, commercial offices, government facilities, sports and entertainment, education, correctional facilities, biotech, pharmaceutical, and industrial and technology.
- The global building construction market was valued at USD 7.78 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 12.54 trillion by 2032.
- The North America building construction market was valued at USD 2.09 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 3.39 trillion by 2032.
- The U.S. commercial building construction market size was $304.5 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. municipal building construction market, which includes government facilities and educational institutions, was valued at USD 240.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 303.1 billion by 2032.
Specialty Contractors Segment
This segment provides electrical, mechanical, plumbing, and fire protection systems, as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning services (HVAC).
- The global specialty trade contractors market is projected to grow from $6.56 trillion in 2025 to $8.78 trillion in 2030. Another estimate places the global specialty trade contractors market at USD 7.79 trillion in 2025, expected to increase to USD 16.38 trillion by 2032.
- North America was the second-largest region in the global specialty trade contractors market in 2025 and is a leading region for specialized firms and advanced compliance systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors:
- Strong and Growing Backlog: The company concluded 2025 with a robust backlog of $20.6 billion, representing a 10% increase year-over-year. This substantial backlog, which included $7.4 billion in new awards and contract adjustments in 2025, provides significant visibility into future revenue streams. Management anticipates this backlog will remain strong in 2026 and beyond, underpinning sustained revenue and earnings growth.
- Execution and Ramp-up of Large, Higher-Margin Projects: Tutor Perini's revenue growth in 2025 was fueled by increased project execution activities on certain large, newer, and higher-margin projects, particularly in the Civil and Building segments. The company expects these projects to continue ramping up and generate double-digit revenue and earnings growth over the next two years. The Civil segment, in particular, saw its revenue increase by 34% in 2025, achieving its highest annual revenue ever with record operating income and margins.
- Abundant Bidding Opportunities in Key Segments: Tutor Perini has identified considerable bidding opportunities, primarily within its Civil and Building segments, as well as for electrical and mechanical work in its Specialty Contractors segment. These opportunities include major infrastructure projects across the U.S., such as the multi-billion-dollar Penn Station Transformation project in New York and various transit, rail, and infrastructure initiatives, supported by substantial funding at local, state, and federal levels. The company remains selective in pursuing attractive projects that are expected to drive continued growth and margin enhancement.
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Share Repurchases
- Tutor Perini's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program totaling $200 million in November 2025.
- The company plans to execute these repurchases through open market transactions or privately negotiated deals at its discretion.
Share Issuance
- Tutor Perini had 53 million shares outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the preceding quarter.
- Quarterly data indicates minor fluctuations in shares outstanding, generally ranging between 51 million and 54 million shares from 2021 to 2025, reaching 54 million by September 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to -$180.85 million over the last 12 months.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tutor Perini invested $75.0 million in capital expenditures, marking a 53.1% increase from the prior quarter.
- The company demonstrates positive free cash flow after capital investments, with a recent free cash flow margin of 10.2%.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 12122025 | TPC | Tutor Perini | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 38.1% | 38.1% | -2.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,345 |
| Op Inc LTM | 607 |
| FCF LTM | 541 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 507 |
| CFO LTM | 649 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 643 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.2 |
| P/E | 29.4 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $93.68 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $79.17 | $68.71 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.3% | 36.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.6% | 51.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.62 | 0.27 |
| Upside Capture | 155.00 | 204.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.8% | 41.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.06 | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.76 |
| Up Beta | 2.19 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 2.08 | 2.31 | 1.77 |
| Down Beta | 0.86 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 1.28 | 1.70 | 1.84 |
| Up Capture | 90% | 161% | 166% | 214% | 350% | 2116% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 36 | 68 | 144 | 396 |
| Down Capture | -473% | 94% | 127% | 129% | 68% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 28 | 57 | 108 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPC | 339.9% | 51.0% | 3.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 33.7% | 15.4% | 1.68 | 46.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 41.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | 1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 14.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.2% | 42.1% | -0.36 | 31.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPC | 41.3% | 54.8% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.59 | 47.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 43.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 31.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 56.1% | 0.35 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPC | 19.4% | 65.3% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 35.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 30.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 14.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 21.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -15.7% | -20.4% | -14.7% |
| 11/5/2025 | -0.8% | -8.3% | 1.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 16.5% | 22.1% | 32.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | 34.4% | 20.0% | 7.5% |
| 10/21/2024 | 12.5% | -4.7% | 9.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -26.8% | -20.4% | 1.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.6% | 22.3% | 56.5% |
| 11/9/2023 | -0.1% | 5.8% | 12.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 12.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -12.5% | -9.1% |
| Max Positive | 34.4% | 22.3% | 110.7% |
| Max Negative | -26.8% | -21.3% | -26.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 24.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.1 for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 7.9% | Raised | Guidance: 3.8 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smalley, Gary G | CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 3052026 | 73.24 | 10,000 | 732,372 | 6,699,670 | Form |
| 2 | Arkley, Peter | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 64.39 | 15,147 | 975,352 | 12,345,122 | Form | |
| 3 | Arkley, Peter | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 63.96 | 24,853 | 1,589,598 | 11,293,417 | Form | |
| 4 | Smalley, Gary G | CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 61.08 | 5,000 | 305,389 | 7,211,761 | Form |
| 5 | Tutor, Ronald N | Tutor Marital Property Trust | Sell | 9192025 | 64.94 | 83,144 | 5,399,371 | 263,850,246 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.