Hanover Insurance (THG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $184.695 | Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Hanover Insurance (THG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $184.695Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% | Key risksTHG key risks include [1] underwriting challenges in its Core Commercial lines, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -58% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital Transformation, and Data-Driven Economy. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital Transformation, and Data-Driven Economy. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Key risksTHG key risks include [1] underwriting challenges in its Core Commercial lines, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
THG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Hanover Insurance (THG) stock likely moved by 7.5% due to several positive financial and operational developments.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Hanover Insurance reported a 75% increase in net income for Q3 2025, reaching $178.7 million, compared to $102.1 million in the same period last year. Operating income also significantly beat analyst forecasts, coming in at $5.09 per diluted share against an anticipated $4.16.
2. Improved Underwriting Results and Lower Catastrophe Losses: The company's combined ratio improved to 91.1% in Q3 2025 from 95.5% a year ago, primarily due to a substantial decrease in catastrophe losses, which fell to $46.2 million from approximately $106 million in Q3 2024. This indicates enhanced underwriting discipline and favorable claims experience.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| THG Return | -12% | 15% | 5% | -8% | 31% | 21% | 55% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 35% | 18% | 126% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| THG Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 60% | 60% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| THG Max Drawdown | -38% | -4% | -4% | -22% | 0% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -4% | -9% | -15% | -0% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRV, CB, HIG, CINF, ALL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | THG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 422 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 200 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,500 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV
In The Past
Hanover Insurance's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to THG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | THG | Hanover Insurance | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 2.9% | 46.4% | -6.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | THG | Hanover Insurance | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 2.9% | 46.4% | -6.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hanover Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 196.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.9 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 7,250 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,888 |
| CFO LTM | 7,407 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,096 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 46.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 1.1% | 4.5% | 10.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -1.6% | -1.2% | 1.1% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.3% | 0.5% | 5.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 4.8% | 5.1% | 10.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.0% | 3.7% | 9.0% |
| 7/18/2024 | 0.8% | -1.9% | 1.1% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.4% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| 1/31/2024 | -0.5% | -1.5% | -2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 5.8% | 15.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -9.4% | -7.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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