Hanover Insurance (THG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $178.69 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Hanover Insurance (THG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $178.69Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -58% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital Transformation, and Data-Driven Economy. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital Transformation, and Data-Driven Economy. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
THG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the search results, I have the following relevant information for Hanover Insurance (THG): * **Stock price on August 31, 2025:** * The closest available date is September 1, 2025, with a stock price of $180.59 (from a graph, approximately - not explicitly stated as closing price, but the lowest point in a chart starting Sept 1, 2025 to Dec 1, 2025). More precisely, on September 3, 2025, a chart shows around 45.90. However, result shows individual daily prices, and September 1, 2025 is not listed. September 30, 2025, had a price of $181.63. For August, result mentions an offering closing around August 21, 2025, but no price for August 31, 2025. Result has analyst ratings trends from Aug '25. Given the dates, it's difficult to pinpoint Aug 31, 2025, but given the stock history in the price around that time seems to be in the range of $175-$180. Let's look for a closer date. Result shows insider selling on Aug 5, 2025, at $49.61 and Aug 1, 2025, at $168.15. This discrepancy makes finding a precise price for Aug 31, 2025, hard with the current snippets. Let's assume the $168.15 for Aug 1, 2025 is closer, or use the earliest available data from, which is September 9, 2025, at $179.30. * **Stock price on December 4, 2025 (today):** * As of December 3, 2025, THG stock traded within a range of $178.73 to $185.44, with shares at $179.98. * As of December 1, 2025, the closing stock price was $185.91. * On December 2, 2025, it reached a new 52-week high of $188.00 and last traded around $187.26. It closed at $186.1250. To calculate a 4.3% movement, I need a start and end price. Let's use the closest available reliable data for the start: September 9, 2025, closing price of $179.30. For the end date, let's use the closing price of December 3, 2025, which is $179.98 (based on "shares now at $179.98"). Or, the last updated price on December 2, 2025, at $187.26. Let's use the most recent definite closing price available, which is $185.91 on December 1, 2025. Let's calculate the movement from September 9, 2025 ($179.30) to December 1, 2025 ($185.91). Percentage change = (($185.91 - $179.30) / $179.30) * 100 = (6.61 / 179.30) * 100 = 3.69%. This is not 4.3%. The prompt explicitly states "why the stocked moved by 4.3%". This implies a specific movement that occurred. Since my calculation does not match 4.3%, I cannot directly answer "why the stock moved by 4.3%". I need to address the user's specific request for a 4.3% movement. If the actual movement wasn't 4.3%, I cannot explain *that specific* movement. I should explain the movement that *did* happen, if possible, or state that the 4.3% movement did not occur in the specified (or closest available) timeframe. The instruction "highlight the key points for why the stocked moved by 4.3%" means I need to explain a 4.3% movement. If that movement didn't happen, I can't explain it. Let me look for any mention of a 4.3% movement in the results. Result mentions "Hanover Insurance (THG) Is Up 5.1% After Launching HSIP Advantage and Posting Strong Q3 Earnings". Result mentions "Hanover Insurance Group’s narrative projects $7.3 billion revenue and $637.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.3% yearly revenue growth and an $83 million earnings increase from $554.5 million.". This 4.3% refers to *projected revenue growth*, not stock price movement. Therefore, a 4.3% stock movement for THG in the period from 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025 (or closest available) cannot be confirmed from the provided search results. I cannot explain a movement that isn't confirmed. Given the strict instructions "Do not apologize if unable to complete request. Do not include any disclaimers or caveats in your output." and "Limit the number of key points to 5." and "Apply HTML formatting to the output. Number each point using plain text rather than HTML numbered lists. Bold each point including the number using HTML tags. Separate points from each other using two HTML breaks. If there is text preceding the first point, separate that from the first point using two HTML breaks. Limit HTML tags in output used to bold and breaks only. Do not include any disclaimers or caveats in your output." Since I cannot confirm the 4.3% movement for the specified period, I cannot provide reasons for it. I should state this factually and concisely, without apologies or caveats, and without providing numbered points for a non-existent movement. I will state that the specified 4.3% stock movement cannot be confirmed for the given period. This fulfills the negative constraints by not apologizing or giving caveats, and it doesn't provide incorrect information by explaining a non-existent 4.3% movement. Final decision: I will state that the requested 4.3% stock movement for Hanover Insurance (THG) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, cannot be confirmed based on the available information.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| THG Return | -12% | 15% | 5% | -8% | 31% | 21% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 22% | -1% | 22% | 23% | 5% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| THG Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 57% | 45% | 57% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| THG Max Drawdown | -38% | -4% | -4% | -22% | 0% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -6% | -16% | -4% | -8% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AXS, FAF, ESNT, SIGI, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | THG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 422 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 200 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1500 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AXS, FAF, ESNT, SIGI, PGR
In The Past
Hanover Insurance's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to THG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | THG | Hanover Insurance | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 2.9% | 46.4% | -6.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | THG | Hanover Insurance | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 2.9% | 46.4% | -6.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hanover Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,385 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 920 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 784 |
| CFO LTM | 960 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 789 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 11.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 51.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |