Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $162.76 | Market Cap: $25.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $162.76Market Cap: $25.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Wealth Management Technology. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CINF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat. Cincinnati Financial reported an operating income of $2.85 per share for the third quarter of 2025, which significantly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 41.8% and represented a 100.7% increase year over year.
2. Significant Revenue and Premium Growth. The company's total operating revenues in the third quarter of 2025 improved by 12.1% year over year, reaching $2.9 billion. This growth was notably driven by a 12% increase in earned premiums, totaling $2.6 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CINF Return | -14% | 33% | -8% | 4% | 42% | 16% | 81% |
| Peers Return | -9% | 37% | 12% | 7% | 24% | 12% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CINF Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 60% | 58% | 60% | 65% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CINF Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -20% | -5% | 0% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -3% | -11% | -18% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU. See CINF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CINF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 748 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1491 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CB, TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU
In The Past
Cincinnati Financial's stock fell -36.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -36.6% loss requires a 57.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CINF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | CINF | Cincinnati Financial | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 5.1% | 40.9% | -35.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | CINF | Cincinnati Financial | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 5.1% | 40.9% | -35.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cincinnati Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4282025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |