Tearsheet

Cincinnati Financial (CINF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $167.07 | Market Cap: $26.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Cincinnati Financial (CINF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $167.07
Market Cap: $26.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8%
Key risks
CINF key risks include [1] stock market downturns negatively impacting its significant equity portfolio.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -0.1%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, and Wealth Management Technology.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -0.1%
6 Key risks
CINF key risks include [1] stock market downturns negatively impacting its significant equity portfolio.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CINF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting the factors that would contribute to Cincinnati Financial (CINF) stock moving by approximately 9.4% during the approximate time period from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025, based on the most recent available financial and market information: 1. Strong Full-Year 2024 Financial Performance. Cincinnati Financial reported strong full-year 2024 net income of $2.292 billion, a significant increase from $1.843 billion in 2023. This robust performance, released in February 2025, provided a positive foundation for the company's stock.

2. Improved Property Casualty Underwriting and Combined Ratio. The company demonstrated improved efficiency in its property casualty segment, with the combined ratio improving to 84.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 87.5% in the same period of 2023. This indicates better underwriting profitability, a key driver for an insurance company's stock performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CINF Return-14%33%-8%4%42%17%83%
Peers Return-9%37%12%7%24%17%119%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CINF Win Rate42%67%50%50%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%60%58%60%65%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CINF Max Drawdown-53%-4%-20%-5%0%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-11%-18%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CB, TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU. See CINF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCINFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven748 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven356 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-17.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven133 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1491 days1480 days

Compare to CB, TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU


In The Past

Cincinnati Financial's stock fell -36.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -36.6% loss requires a 57.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cincinnati Financial (CINF)

Better Bets than Cincinnati Financial (CINF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CINF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
CINF_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020CINFCincinnati FinancialDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
5.1%40.9%-35.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
CINF_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020CINFCincinnati FinancialDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
5.1%40.9%-35.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cincinnati Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CINFCBTRVAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameCincinna.Chubb Traveler.American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
Mkt Price167.11312.96291.2786.14138.36115.68152.74
Mkt Cap26.1124.465.347.738.941.144.4
Rev LTM12,07858,90048,40927,39027,69257,92638,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2,79113,3219,9852,8035,8655,2745,570
FCF 3Y Avg2,48113,4098,6824,1204,9225,7815,351
CFO LTM2,80713,3219,9852,8035,9885,2745,631
CFO 3Y Avg2,49913,4098,6824,1205,1095,7815,445

Growth & Margins

CINFCBTRVAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameCincinna.Chubb Traveler.American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.6%6.7%6.7%2.9%6.9%-21.0%4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.7%12.2%10.1%9.8%8.6%1.9%10.0%
Rev Chg Q12.2%8.2%4.8%-5.2%6.4%-8.2%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%2.2%1.2%-1.3%1.6%-2.7%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM23.2%22.6%20.6%10.2%21.6%9.1%21.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.0%24.8%19.4%21.6%19.6%9.4%20.6%
FCF/Rev LTM23.1%22.6%20.6%10.2%21.2%9.1%20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.9%24.8%19.4%21.6%18.9%9.4%20.5%

Valuation

CINFCBTRVAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameCincinna.Chubb Traveler.American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
Mkt Cap26.1124.465.347.738.941.144.4
P/S2.01.91.31.61.40.61.5
P/EBIT9.28.58.18.48.1-8.4
P/E11.611.610.713.310.514.111.6
P/CFO8.88.46.315.56.37.07.7
Total Yield10.7%10.0%10.2%9.7%11.1%12.3%10.4%
Dividend Yield2.1%1.3%0.8%2.3%1.6%5.2%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.1%12.9%17.2%9.2%15.8%15.0%13.9%
D/E0.00.20.10.20.10.60.2
Net D/E-0.1-0.2-1.4-0.6-0.5-1.3-0.6

Returns

CINFCBTRVAIGHIGPRUMedian
NameCincinna.Chubb Traveler.American.Hartford.Prudenti. 
1M Rtn3.5%6.2%2.8%13.3%5.2%11.8%5.7%
3M Rtn8.2%15.3%6.3%12.7%6.4%13.8%10.5%
6M Rtn16.0%11.7%10.8%3.4%11.7%14.0%11.7%
12M Rtn15.7%14.6%21.5%23.5%29.0%2.4%18.6%
3Y Rtn75.7%54.4%68.7%47.2%97.6%37.2%61.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.8%5.5%2.0%12.5%4.5%11.0%5.0%
3M Excs Rtn5.8%13.1%3.9%9.6%4.4%11.5%7.7%
6M Excs Rtn3.6%-0.7%-1.5%-9.0%-0.7%1.6%-0.7%
12M Excs Rtn1.3%3.8%9.1%10.3%14.5%-10.1%6.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-0.1%-17.6%-3.7%-22.7%27.1%-37.5%-10.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Investments24,9991,51824,48121,33219,583
Property casualty insurance5,2949034,4213,8383,437
Life insurance1,5625,1781,5901,6611,516
Other91422,133895711872
Total32,76929,73231,38727,54225,408


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,233,233
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.5%
Average Daily Volume514,804
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.34
Basic Shares Quantity156,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/2025-3.7%-2.5%6.8%
7/28/20253.6%1.8%4.4%
4/28/20252.9%5.9%8.8%
2/10/20252.8%0.7%3.2%
10/24/20242.2%1.9%13.2%
7/25/20243.0%8.0%10.4%
4/25/2024-6.4%-1.9%-0.6%
2/6/2024-4.5%-2.2%4.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161516
# Negative898
Median Positive3.3%3.3%7.7%
Median Negative-5.5%-4.9%-4.7%
Max Positive6.9%10.2%20.9%
Max Negative-13.9%-26.7%-25.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025728202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025428202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021