ThredUp (TDUP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.68 | Market Cap: $951.6 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
ThredUp (TDUP)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.68Market Cap: $951.6 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Circular Fashion. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 92x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 405% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 272% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3% | ||
| Key risksTDUP key risks include [1] its consistent inability to achieve profitability, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Circular Fashion. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 92x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 405% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 272% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.3% |
| Key risksTDUP key risks include [1] its consistent inability to achieve profitability, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TDUP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, ThredUp (TDUP) experienced a stock price decline of 29.6% due to several factors:
1. Negative Investor Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings: Despite ThredUp surpassing revenue and EPS forecasts for Q3 2025, its stock dropped 5.06% in after-hours trading following the earnings release on November 3, 2025. This negative reaction, even with an earnings beat, suggests underlying investor concerns possibly related to broader economic uncertainties or apprehensions about the company's future growth prospects.
2. Concerns from Q2 2025 Financial Outlook: While ThredUp reported strong Q2 2025 revenue on August 4, 2025, and raised its full-year outlook, it also projected decreasing adjusted EBITDA margins for Q4 2025. This anticipated decline in profitability, with margins expected to drop to approximately 3.0%, likely raised concerns among investors about the company's operational efficiency and future profitability during the latter half of the year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TDUP Return | � | � | -90% | 72% | -38% | 454% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -59% | -14% | 107% | 13% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TDUP Win Rate | � | 33% | 25% | 67% | 25% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 47% | 28% | 38% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TDUP Max Drawdown | � | � | -94% | -10% | -77% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -70% | -41% | -27% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REAL, EBAY, ETSY, RVLV, RENT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TDUP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3977.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to MELI, M, BBBY, BGO, AMZN
In The Past
ThredUp's stock fell -97.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2021. A -97.5% loss requires a 3977.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| ThredUp Earnings Notes | |||
| Is ThredUp Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Should You Buy ThredUp Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ThredUp (TDUP) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| TDUP Stock Up 36% after 5-Day Win Streak | August 6th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TDUP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ThredUp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| Rev LTM | 929 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11 |
| CFO LTM | 44 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 20 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 63.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.5% | -8.9% | -6.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | 5.7% | 1.7% | 9.1% |
| 5/5/2025 | 47.7% | 39.0% | 72.3% |
| 1/14/2025 | 45.4% | 73.8% | 102.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | 58.5% | 77.4% | 212.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | -62.7% | -62.4% | -48.6% |
| 3/4/2024 | -16.5% | -21.2% | -21.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | -33.4% | -39.8% | -35.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 26.1% | 32.7% | 43.0% |
| Median Negative | -9.0% | -17.4% | -25.4% |
| Max Positive | 58.5% | 77.4% | 212.4% |
| Max Negative | -62.7% | -62.4% | -48.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |