RealReal (REAL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.28 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
RealReal (REAL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.28Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.7% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 105x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 155%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 131% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -42 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 105x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 155%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 131% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining The RealReal (REAL) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Performance and Raised Guidance.
The RealReal announced robust second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, 2025, reporting record Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of $504 million and total revenue of $165 million, both increasing 14% year-over-year. The company significantly narrowed its net loss to $11 million from $16 million in the prior year and achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 million, an improvement of $8.6 million year-over-year. This strong performance, coupled with raised full-year guidance, signaled meaningful commercial momentum and improving financial health to investors.
2. Continued Momentum with Excellent Q3 2025 Results and Further Raised Outlook.
On November 10, 2025, The RealReal reported accelerating growth in its third-quarter 2025 financial results. GMV increased 20% year-over-year to $520 million, and total revenue rose 17% compared to the third quarter of 2024, reaching $174 million. Adjusted EBITDA significantly improved to $9.3 million, exceeding expectations, and the company once again raised its full-year outlook, reinforcing investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REAL Return | 4% | -41% | -89% | 61% | 444% | 30% | -25% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 36% | -47% | -3% | 64% | 3% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REAL Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 8% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 62% | 21% | 46% | 67% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REAL Max Drawdown | -71% | -48% | -91% | -18% | -21% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -6% | -50% | -22% | -8% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIL, HBI, AGIE, JPO, MPJS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2689.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 245.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 269 days | 148 days |
Compare to GIL, HBI, AGIE, JPO, MPJS
In The Past
RealReal's stock fell -96.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -96.4% loss requires a 2689.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| RealReal Stock Soars 19% In A Single Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| With RealReal Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for RealReal Stock with 43% Return (vs. -28% YTD) [8/14/2025] | Notification | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| RealReal (REAL) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Where Does RealReal Stock Rank Among Competitors? | November 12th, 2025 | ||
| RealReal Stock To $11? | November 12th, 2025 | ||
| REAL Stock Up 43% after 5-Day Win Streak | August 15th, 2025 | ||
| REAL Stock Up 26% after 5-Day Win Streak | July 23rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for RealReal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,362 |
| Op Inc LTM | 462 |
| FCF LTM | -19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 98 |
| CFO LTM | 14 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 141 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/CFO | 102.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 113.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 47.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11082021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |