Tearsheet

RealReal (REAL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.85 | Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

RealReal (REAL)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.85
Market Cap: $1.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.3%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 80x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 188%
3   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90%
5   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
6   Key risks
REAL key risks include [1] failures in its core authentication process that undermine brand trust and [2] persistent unprofitability driven by a high-cost business model.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.3%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 80x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 188%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 90%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
9 Key risks
REAL key risks include [1] failures in its core authentication process that undermine brand trust and [2] persistent unprofitability driven by a high-cost business model.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

REAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The RealReal (symbol: REAL) experienced a significant stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors:



1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: The company reported robust performance for Q3 2025, with revenue increasing 17% year-over-year to $174 million and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growing 20% to $520 million. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $9.3 million, or 5.4% of total revenue, exceeding analyst expectations.

2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the impressive Q3 results, The RealReal increased its full-year GMV guidance to between $2.10 billion and $2.11 billion and its revenue guidance to a range of $687 million to $690 million. The adjusted EBITDA guidance was also raised to $37.7 million – $38.7 million, signaling strong confidence in continued growth and improved profitability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
REAL Return4%-41%-89%61%444%33%-23%
Peers Return-63%7%19%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
REAL Win Rate50%50%8%42%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate48%28%50%43%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
REAL Max Drawdown-71%-48%-91%-18%-21%-56% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-24%-36%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EBAY, ETSY, TDUP, RVLV, SFIX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventREALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-96.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2689.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven245.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven269 days148 days

Compare to GIL, HBI, AGIE, JPO, MPJS


In The Past

RealReal's stock fell -96.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -96.4% loss requires a 2689.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About RealReal (REAL)

Better Bets than RealReal (REAL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to REAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for RealReal

Peers to compare with:

Financials

REALEBAYETSYTDUPRVLVSFIXMedian
NameRealReal eBay Etsy ThredUp Revolve Stitch F. 
Mkt Price14.7182.7152.867.6227.425.2321.07
Mkt Cap1.238.15.30.92.00.61.6
Rev LTM66310,4702,8542981,1951,2901,243
Op Inc LTM-352,238394-2365-3921
FCF LTM-181,409635263534
FCF 3Y Avg-491,762664-14363335
CFO LTM151,91269113742248
CFO 3Y Avg-142,244709-3434946

Growth & Margins

REALEBAYETSYTDUPRVLVSFIXMedian
NameRealReal eBay Etsy ThredUp Revolve Stitch F. 
Rev Chg LTM14.3%2.7%2.0%41.7%9.2%-0.1%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%1.5%4.9%5.6%3.5%-11.4%3.9%
Rev Chg Q17.5%6.1%2.4%33.6%4.4%7.3%6.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.1%1.5%0.6%7.4%1.1%1.8%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM-5.3%21.4%13.8%-7.8%5.4%-3.0%1.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.1%21.2%13.2%-14.9%4.1%-6.9%-1.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.3%-1.0%-0.2%2.8%0.5%0.1%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM2.3%18.3%24.2%4.3%6.2%1.7%5.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.7%22.1%25.4%-0.3%3.8%3.4%3.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%13.5%22.3%0.5%5.3%0.4%2.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.5%17.4%23.8%-4.5%3.2%2.2%2.7%

Valuation

REALEBAYETSYTDUPRVLVSFIXMedian
NameRealReal eBay Etsy ThredUp Revolve Stitch F. 
Mkt Cap1.238.15.30.92.00.61.6
P/S1.94.02.33.91.30.42.1
P/EBIT-15.115.9-56.923.3-15.5
P/E-17.219.236.2-32.227.4-20.11.0
P/CFO79.621.99.591.620.726.124.0
Total Yield-5.8%6.5%2.8%-3.1%3.7%-5.0%-0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.0%9.7%-2.7%2.7%-4.4%
D/E-0.20.50.00.0-0.1
Net D/E-0.10.20.0-0.2-0.0

Returns

REALEBAYETSYTDUPRVLVSFIXMedian
NameRealReal eBay Etsy ThredUp Revolve Stitch F. 
1M Rtn3.7%1.0%-3.2%2.6%32.8%26.6%3.1%
3M Rtn40.8%-7.7%-12.8%-27.1%14.7%-4.7%-6.2%
6M Rtn188.4%7.4%-4.4%-9.4%31.3%36.9%19.4%
12M Rtn54.7%30.7%-13.3%404.6%-24.9%26.3%28.5%
3Y Rtn965.9%113.7%-58.2%282.9%13.4%49.9%81.8%
1M Excs Rtn3.0%0.3%-4.0%1.8%32.1%25.9%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn36.0%-8.7%-19.8%-29.9%12.5%-9.8%-9.2%
6M Excs Rtn176.0%-5.0%-16.8%-21.8%18.9%24.5%7.0%
12M Excs Rtn56.3%20.5%-21.5%400.3%-37.1%22.3%21.4%
3Y Excs Rtn874.8%32.0%-127.6%307.8%-63.6%-34.7%-1.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment549    
Consignment revenue 385302  
Direct revenue 1591215351
Shipping services revenue 6045  
Consignment and service revenue   247266
Total549603468300316


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity27,053,407
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.3%
Average Daily Volume3,324,778
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.14
Basic Shares Quantity115,893,232
Short % of Basic Shares23.3%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/202538.1%26.5%27.2%
8/7/202516.2%42.8%49.4%
5/8/2025-30.7%-27.7%-16.0%
2/10/2025-4.5%2.0%-27.0%
10/28/20241.7%2.0%81.9%
8/6/2024-23.2%-13.2%-26.5%
2/29/202455.9%120.3%119.8%
11/7/202324.2%36.6%41.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111412
# Negative12911
Median Positive15.2%19.4%25.6%
Median Negative-12.9%-15.9%-26.5%
Max Positive55.9%120.3%119.8%
Max Negative-30.7%-28.4%-48.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023301202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021