Tearsheet

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.46 | Market Cap: $560.8 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.46
Market Cap: $560.8 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0%
Key risks
TCBX key risks include [1] its concentrated exposure to commercial real estate, Show more.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -69%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0%
6 Key risks
TCBX key risks include [1] its concentrated exposure to commercial real estate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TCBX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Third Coast Bancshares reported record earnings per share (EPS) of $1.22 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.82. The company also saw an increase in net income, reaching $18.1 million for the quarter.

2. Merger Agreement with Keystone Bancshares: On October 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. and Keystone Bancshares, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement, a strategic move that could be viewed positively by investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TCBX Return-29%8%71%18%
Peers Return-3%23%-3%-5%18%5%35%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TCBX Win Rate0%25%42%75%58% 
Peers Win Rate50%62%47%50%53%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TCBX Max Drawdown-36%-30%-8%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-3%-16%-31%-14%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PB, TCBI, CFR, FFIN, STEL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTCBXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven540 days464 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Third Coast Bancshares's stock fell -54.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/6/2021. A -54.5% loss requires a 119.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX)

Better Bets than Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TCBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Third Coast Bancshares

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TCBXPBTCBICFRFFINSTELMedian
NameThird Co.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Cullen/F.First Fi.Stellar . 
Mkt Price40.5871.9293.33128.3731.2932.1956.25
Mkt Cap0.66.84.38.24.51.74.4
Rev LTM1981,1911,2122,191600423895
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM392382291629783156
FCF 3Y Avg39501308436281134295
CFO LTM4126524915830988203
CFO 3Y Avg42530339581296140318

Growth & Margins

TCBXPBTCBICFRFFINSTELMedian
NameThird Co.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Cullen/F.First Fi.Stellar . 
Rev Chg LTM20.8%7.1%35.5%7.9%17.7%-3.1%12.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.9%2.7%12.0%13.0%5.5%13.3%12.5%
Rev Chg Q27.6%3.9%171.6%9.5%15.8%-2.0%12.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.3%1.0%21.6%2.3%3.7%-0.5%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM21.0%22.3%20.5%7.2%51.5%20.7%20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.0%47.5%34.7%28.7%55.8%31.2%32.9%
FCF/Rev LTM19.9%20.0%18.9%0.7%49.5%19.7%19.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.8%44.9%31.4%21.6%53.0%29.9%30.7%

Valuation

TCBXPBTCBICFRFFINSTELMedian
NameThird Co.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Cullen/F.First Fi.Stellar . 
Mkt Cap0.66.84.38.24.51.74.4
P/S2.75.33.23.78.03.73.7
P/EBIT-------
P/E8.511.812.912.719.915.312.8
P/CFO12.723.815.551.615.617.816.7
Total Yield11.8%11.9%7.8%11.0%7.2%8.4%9.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.5%0.0%3.1%2.2%1.9%2.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.5%8.4%9.2%6.7%6.3%10.3%8.8%
D/E0.30.40.20.00.00.00.1
Net D/E-0.70.0-1.6-2.3-0.7-0.5-0.7

Returns

TCBXPBTCBICFRFFINSTELMedian
NameThird Co.Prosperi.Texas Ca.Cullen/F.First Fi.Stellar . 
1M Rtn12.1%11.9%12.9%7.9%5.4%9.7%10.8%
3M Rtn1.4%10.2%9.5%2.6%-10.1%5.1%3.8%
6M Rtn35.1%8.0%23.3%5.5%-9.8%21.7%14.9%
12M Rtn12.2%-5.2%13.3%-3.1%-18.4%8.5%2.7%
3Y Rtn109.3%16.7%70.4%11.5%2.3%18.7%17.7%
1M Excs Rtn11.4%11.1%12.2%7.2%4.7%9.0%10.1%
3M Excs Rtn-2.4%6.8%4.9%-0.8%-13.5%0.6%-0.1%
6M Excs Rtn22.7%-4.3%10.9%-6.8%-22.2%9.3%2.5%
12M Excs Rtn0.2%-18.1%-0.5%-15.0%-32.1%-3.8%-9.4%
3Y Excs Rtn44.6%-55.1%-8.3%-66.3%-74.4%-52.3%-53.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Community banking1471229369
Total1471229369


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity259,570
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.0%
Average Daily Volume53,882
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.82
Basic Shares Quantity13,860,149
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-3.0%-6.7%-7.6%
7/23/20252.8%5.8%5.8%
4/23/2025-4.7%-2.3%0.8%
1/22/20255.2%7.6%6.4%
10/23/20245.8%19.4%27.5%
7/24/20241.8%-5.2%-5.8%
4/24/2024-1.1%1.8%7.5%
1/25/20243.5%2.0%-1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91110
# Negative756
Median Positive3.7%3.6%6.9%
Median Negative-1.5%-5.2%-4.6%
Max Positive15.5%19.4%27.5%
Max Negative-9.3%-12.3%-9.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024305202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021317202210-K 12/31/2021