Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $93.23 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $93.23Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -162% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -162% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 8.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TCBI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) experienced a stock movement of 7.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Record Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: On October 22, 2025, Texas Capital Bancshares reported record third-quarter financial results that significantly surpassed analyst expectations. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18, substantially higher than the analyst estimate of $1.81. Total revenue reached $340.35 million, exceeding the estimated $331.43 million. Net income available to common stockholders also hit a record $100.9 million, indicating robust operational execution and an improved earnings power.
2. Authorization of a New Share Repurchase Program: On December 2, 2025, the company's board of directors approved a new share repurchase program for calendar year 2026, allowing for the repurchase of up to $200 million of its outstanding common stock. This new program, effective December 12, 2025, replaces a previous one and underscores the bank's strategy of returning capital to shareholders. Under the prior program, approximately 2.0 million shares had already been repurchased at a total cost of $164 million, including 1.2 million shares for $105.2 million during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TCBI Return | 5% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 21% | 16% | 60% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TCBI Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TCBI Max Drawdown | -66% | -8% | -18% | -27% | -14% | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TCBI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -51.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 564 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 201.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 245.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Texas Capital Bancshares's stock fell -51.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -51.1% loss requires a 104.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TCBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Texas Capital Bancshares
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7172025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4172025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10172024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7182024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4182024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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