Tearsheet

Prosperity Bancshares (PB)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $71.84 | Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Prosperity Bancshares (PB)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $71.84
Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  Key risks
PB key risks include [1] demonstrated earnings sensitivity to interest rate volatility and [2] potential asset quality deterioration from a significant loan portfolio concentration in real estate and rising nonperforming assets.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 24x
6 Key risks
PB key risks include [1] demonstrated earnings sensitivity to interest rate volatility and [2] potential asset quality deterioration from a significant loan portfolio concentration in real estate and rising nonperforming assets.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Prosperity Bancshares (PB) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: Prosperity Bancshares reported its third quarter 2025 earnings on October 29, 2025, which presented a mixed financial picture. While net income and diluted earnings per share increased year-over-year, revenue fell short of analyst estimates. This led to an initial cautious market response, but the stock subsequently gained 2.9% the day after the announcement.

2. Quarterly Dividend Increase: On October 22, 2025, Prosperity Bancshares announced a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.60 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 3.45% increase from the previous quarter. This marked the 22nd consecutive annual dividend increase, typically viewed as a positive signal by investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PB Return-0%7%4%-3%15%-2%21%
Peers Return-7%42%-8%-9%23%14%55%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PB Win Rate42%58%50%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%67%45%45%60%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PB Max Drawdown-40%-4%-9%-29%-14%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-2%-23%-37%-11%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMA, CFR, BOKF, TCBI, FFIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven379 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven162 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-47.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven91.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven260 days1,480 days

Compare to SSB, WAL, VLY, GBCI, AVBC


In The Past

Prosperity Bancshares's stock fell -36.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/7/2023. A -36.2% loss requires a 56.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Prosperity Bancshares (PB)

Better Bets than Prosperity Bancshares (PB)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
PB_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020PBProsperity BancsharesDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
8.2%60.0%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
PB_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020PBProsperity BancsharesDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
8.2%60.0%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Prosperity Bancshares

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PBCMACFRBOKFTCBIFFINMedian
NameProsperi.Comerica Cullen/F.BOK Fina.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Mkt Price71.9288.11128.37119.2193.3331.2990.72
Mkt Cap6.811.38.27.54.34.57.2
Rev LTM1,1913,3412,1911,9941,2126001,603
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM23824161,519229297233
FCF 3Y Avg50184443684308281372
CFO LTM2651251581,519249309257
CFO 3Y Avg53097658184339296435

Growth & Margins

PBCMACFRBOKFTCBIFFINMedian
NameProsperi.Comerica Cullen/F.BOK Fina.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Rev Chg LTM7.1%4.4%7.9%2.8%35.5%17.7%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.7%1.8%13.0%7.6%12.0%5.5%6.5%
Rev Chg Q3.9%3.3%9.5%6.0%171.6%15.8%7.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%0.8%2.3%1.5%21.6%3.7%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM22.3%3.7%7.2%76.1%20.5%51.5%21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg47.5%29.2%28.7%5.5%34.7%55.8%31.9%
FCF/Rev LTM20.0%0.7%0.7%76.1%18.9%49.5%19.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg44.9%25.3%21.6%5.5%31.4%53.0%28.4%

Valuation

PBCMACFRBOKFTCBIFFINMedian
NameProsperi.Comerica Cullen/F.BOK Fina.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Mkt Cap6.811.38.27.54.34.57.2
P/S5.32.63.73.53.28.03.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E11.812.212.713.012.919.912.8
P/CFO23.870.251.64.615.515.619.7
Total Yield11.9%12.5%11.0%9.8%7.8%7.2%10.4%
Dividend Yield3.5%4.3%3.1%2.1%0.0%2.2%2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.4%11.7%6.7%-1.4%9.2%6.3%7.5%
D/E0.40.60.00.50.20.00.3
Net D/E0.0-1.3-2.3-0.2-1.6-0.7-1.0

Returns

PBCMACFRBOKFTCBIFFINMedian
NameProsperi.Comerica Cullen/F.BOK Fina.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
1M Rtn11.9%17.2%7.9%15.6%12.9%5.4%12.4%
3M Rtn10.2%27.6%2.6%8.9%9.5%-10.1%9.2%
6M Rtn8.0%60.7%5.5%30.3%23.3%-9.8%15.6%
12M Rtn-5.2%42.8%-3.1%6.6%13.3%-18.4%1.7%
3Y Rtn16.7%61.8%11.5%28.8%70.4%2.3%22.8%
1M Excs Rtn11.1%16.5%7.2%14.8%12.2%4.7%11.7%
3M Excs Rtn6.8%24.9%-0.8%4.7%4.9%-13.5%4.8%
6M Excs Rtn-4.3%48.3%-6.8%17.9%10.9%-22.2%3.3%
12M Excs Rtn-18.1%27.1%-15.0%-6.1%-0.5%-32.1%-10.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.1%-13.8%-66.3%-44.9%-8.3%-74.4%-50.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment1,0681,1131,0981,122796
Total1,0681,1131,0981,122796


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,089,335
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.8%
Average Daily Volume842,859
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.67
Basic Shares Quantity95,093,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.9%4.9%8.8%
7/23/2025-4.6%-7.6%-7.1%
4/23/20250.2%2.0%4.2%
1/29/2025-0.7%0.3%-4.1%
10/23/20241.0%0.9%12.6%
7/24/20242.4%5.0%2.6%
4/24/20243.8%-1.2%0.8%
1/24/2024-0.8%1.8%-3.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151715
# Negative979
Median Positive2.3%3.0%4.2%
Median Negative-2.8%-1.8%-4.1%
Max Positive12.8%8.8%20.5%
Max Negative-4.6%-7.6%-7.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021