Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $67.78 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $67.78Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 7.7% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Key risksPB key risks include [1] demonstrated earnings sensitivity to interest rate volatility and [2] potential asset quality deterioration from a significant loan portfolio concentration in real estate and rising nonperforming assets. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Key risksPB key risks include [1] demonstrated earnings sensitivity to interest rate volatility and [2] potential asset quality deterioration from a significant loan portfolio concentration in real estate and rising nonperforming assets. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Mixed Q1 2026 Financial Results and Merger Impact: Prosperity Bancshares reported a strong adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.50 for Q1 2026, exceeding analyst forecasts by 3.8% to 14.5% and showing a net interest margin increase of 21 basis points to 3.51%. However, these positive operational metrics were partially offset by $42.5 million in merger-related expenses and a significant increase in the efficiency ratio to 59.2% from 43.7% in Q4 2025, missing analyst estimates. The mixed nature of these results contributed to the stock remaining largely flat.
2. Aggressive Acquisition Strategy and Integration: During the specified period, Prosperity Bancshares completed the mergers of American Bank Holding Corporation (January 1, 2026) and Southwest Bancshares, Inc. (February 1, 2026), and announced the pending acquisition of Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (expected July 1, 2026). These mergers led to substantial growth in total assets by $5.156 billion (13.4%), loans by $3.483 billion (16.0%), and deposits by $4.150 billion (14.6%) in Q1 2026. While demonstrating growth, this rapid expansion, including a core system conversion in February 2026, also introduced integration costs and potential investor apprehension regarding the scale and speed of acquisitions. The stock had seen an initial drop of 7.33% in premarket trading to $67.56 at the end of January 2026 following the Stellar merger announcement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in PB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.38 | 67.76 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,191 | 1,255 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.7% | 42.1% | -5.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 12.8 | 4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 95 | 100 | -4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PB | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 46.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.0% | 68.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.8% change in PB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.68 | 67.76 | 4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,180 | 1,255 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.3% | 42.1% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 12.8 | 8.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 95 | 100 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PB | 4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 34.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.7% | 54.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.3% change in PB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.60 | 67.76 | 3.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,145 | 1,255 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 41.9% | 42.1% | 0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 12.8 | -1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 95 | 100 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PB | 3.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.6% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 56.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.1% change in PB stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.42 | 67.76 | 20.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,113 | 1,255 | 12.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 47.1% | 42.1% | -10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.8 | 12.8 | 30.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 100 | -8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PB | 20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.4% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 63.2% | 65.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PB Return | 7% | 4% | -3% | 15% | -5% | -0% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -2% | -3% | 23% | 4% | 9% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PB Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 45% | 50% | 57% | 58% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PB Max Drawdown | -4% | -9% | -29% | -14% | -16% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -20% | -29% | -9% | -17% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CFR, BOKF, TCBI, FFIN, IBOC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Prosperity Bancshares's stock fell -17.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 161 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Prosperity Bancshares's stock fell -17.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Prosperity Bancshares (PB):
- Think of it like a smaller, regionally focused version of a full-service national bank such as Wells Fargo or Bank of America, operating primarily across Texas and Oklahoma.
- It's similar to a large regional bank like PNC or U.S. Bank, but with its operations heavily concentrated in the Texas and Oklahoma markets.
- Imagine a full-service community bank that has significantly expanded its reach to serve hundreds of locations and communities across Texas and Oklahoma.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deposit Accounts: Prosperity Bank accepts various deposit products including demand, savings, money market, and time accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.
- Real Estate Loans: The company provides loans for 1-4 family residential mortgages, commercial real estate, multifamily residential, construction, land development, and other land.
- Commercial & Industrial Loans: Prosperity Bank offers financing for businesses covering working capital, business expansion, equipment purchases, and agricultural needs.
- Consumer Loans: A variety of consumer lending options are available, such as automobile, recreational vehicle, boat, home improvement, personal, and home equity loans.
- Digital Banking Services: Customers can access internet banking and mobile banking for convenient account management and transactions.
- Trust & Wealth Management: The bank provides services for managing trusts and offering wealth management advice to clients.
- Retail Brokerage Services: Prosperity Bancshares offers retail brokerage services, allowing clients to invest in various financial instruments.
- Mortgage Services: The company provides dedicated services related to the origination, processing, and servicing of mortgage loans.
- Treasury Management Services: Businesses can utilize treasury management solutions to optimize their cash flow and financial operations.
- Payment Card Services: The company provides both debit and credit cards for consumer and business spending.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Prosperity Bancshares (symbol: PB) is a bank holding company that provides a broad range of financial products and services. As a financial institution, it does not have a few "major customers" in the traditional sense of named companies that constitute a significant portion of its revenue. Instead, its customer base is diverse and diffuse, serving a multitude of individuals and businesses.
Given the nature of its operations and extensive branch network, Prosperity Bancshares serves a large volume of individual consumers in addition to its business clientele. Therefore, its major customers can be best understood by categorizing the types of clients it serves:
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Retail & Consumer Clients: This category includes individuals, families, and households. They utilize everyday banking services such as demand, savings, money market, and time accounts, certificates of deposit, internet and mobile banking, and debit and credit cards. This segment also includes customers seeking consumer loans (e.g., automobile, recreational vehicle, boat, home improvement, personal, deposit account collateralized, consumer durables, and home equity loans) and 1-4 family residential mortgage loans.
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Commercial & Business Clients: This category encompasses various business entities, ranging from small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to larger commercial, agricultural, and real estate development operations. These clients utilize a variety of commercial loans, including commercial real estate and multifamily residential, commercial and industrial, agricultural, non-real estate agricultural, construction, land development, and other land loans. They also access treasury management services and business deposit accounts.
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Wealth Management & Trust Clients: This segment focuses on individuals, families, and potentially some institutional clients who require specialized financial services such as trust and wealth management, retail brokerage, and investment advice to manage their assets and achieve financial goals.
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David Zalman Senior Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
David Zalman is a businessperson who has led five different companies and currently serves as Senior Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. and Prosperity Bank. He was part of the founding team of Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. in 1983. Mr. Zalman previously held the positions of Chief Executive Officer at Commercial State Bank of Bonner Springs and Chief Executive Officer at Commercial State Bank of El Campo.
H.E. Timanus, Jr. Chairman
H.E. Timanus, Jr. has been at the helm of five different companies and is currently the Chairman at Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. and Chairman & Chief Operating Officer at Prosperity Bank. In the past, he served as Chairman & Chief Executive Officer at Heritage Bank, NA, President & Chief Executive Officer at Commercial Bancshares, Inc., and President & Chief Executive Officer at Heritage Bancshares, Inc. Notably, Heritage Bank, Houston, Texas, merged into Prosperity Bank between 1998 and 2001, and Commercial Bancshares, Inc., Houston, Texas, merged into Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. from 1986 to 2001.
Kevin J. Hanigan President & Chief Operating Officer
Kevin J. Hanigan serves as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. and is also a Director and President of Prosperity Bank. Additional background details focusing on founding/managing other companies, selling companies, or private equity backing were not readily available in the provided search results.
Asylbek Osmonov Chief Financial Officer
Asylbek Osmonov is the Chief Financial Officer of Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. and the Bank. Additional background details focusing on founding/managing other companies, selling companies, or private equity backing were not readily available in the provided search results.
Edward Z. Safady Vice Chairman
Edward Z. Safady serves as the Vice Chairman and an Advisory Director of Prosperity Bancshares, Inc., and is also the Vice Chairman of Prosperity Bank. Additional background details focusing on founding/managing other companies, selling companies, or private equity backing were not readily available in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Prosperity Bancshares' business are primarily driven by the inherent nature of the banking industry and the company's specific operational focus.Key Risks to Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
- Interest Rate Risk: Prosperity Bancshares' financial performance is significantly affected by fluctuations in interest rates. Changes in interest rates can impact the company's net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on assets (like loans) and the interest paid on liabilities (like deposits). While rising rates have sometimes boosted net interest margins, a sharp reversal or a prolonged period of declining rates could put pressure on the bank's profitability by compressing the spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays on deposits.
- Credit Risk and Asset Quality (particularly real estate loan concentration): The company faces risks related to the credit quality of its loan portfolio. A notable concentration in real estate loans, including commercial real estate, 1-4 family residential, and construction loans, exposes Prosperity Bancshares to sector-specific risks and potential volatility in the real estate market. Economic downturns or adverse changes in market conditions could lead to higher loan delinquencies, increased nonperforming assets, and necessitate higher provisions for credit losses, thereby impacting the bank's financial condition and results of operations.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risk: As a financial institution, Prosperity Bancshares operates in a highly regulated environment and is subject to extensive federal and state laws and regulations. Changes in these regulations, increased regulatory scrutiny, or non-compliance can lead to significant financial penalties, reputational damage, increased operational costs, and limitations on business activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Prosperity Bancshares is the continued rise and increasing adoption of **digital-only banks (neobanks)**. These entities operate with significantly lower overhead costs due to the absence of physical branch networks, allowing them to often offer more competitive interest rates on deposits, lower fees, and highly streamlined, technology-driven user experiences through mobile apps and online platforms. This business model directly challenges Prosperity Bancshares' traditional branch-based banking approach, potentially eroding its customer base, particularly among younger demographics and those prioritizing convenience and cost over in-person service. This trend forces traditional banks to either invest heavily in digital transformation or face increasing pressure on their profitability and market share.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Prosperity Bancshares (symbol: PB) operates primarily in Texas and Oklahoma, offering a diverse range of financial products and services to businesses and consumers. Below is an overview of the addressable markets for their main products and services, with market sizes primarily identified for the U.S. or specific regions within their operating footprint when available.
Deposit Products
- The deposit market in **North Texas** (Dallas-Fort Worth region) alone was valued at a cumulative total of $714.7 billion as of June 30, 2023.
- For **Texas** overall, community bank deposits experienced a 5.5% growth from Q2 2023 through Q1 2024.
- The total assets of state-chartered banks in **Oklahoma** were $201.01 billion as of Q2 2025. While not solely deposits, this indicates the scale of the banking sector there.
Loan Products
1-4 Family Residential Mortgage Loans
- The total residential mortgage debt outstanding in the **U.S.** was $11.92 trillion as of the fourth quarter of 2022. This figure, including home equity loans, increased to $12.65 trillion, representing 72.8% of total consumer debt, as of March 2024.
- The **U.S.** home mortgage market size, in terms of origination volume, was approximately $180.91 billion in 2023, with projections to grow to around $501.67 billion by 2032.
- In **Texas**, the median home price ranged from $340,000 to $350,000 as of January 2026. The state's residential mortgage industry saw an upward trend in origination volume and values in early 2024, following a decline in 2023.
- The median home sale price in **Oklahoma** was $279,900 in February 2026. The average home value in Oklahoma was $216,292 as of 2025, with homes typically going from listed to pending in about 29 days.
Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily Residential Loans
- Commercial real estate debt in the **U.S.** totaled $5.62 trillion in 2022.
- The **U.S.** commercial real estate market size in terms of transaction value is projected to grow from $1.66 trillion in 2024 to $1.89 trillion by 2029. Another source states the market was valued at $1.74 trillion in 2026 and is forecast to reach $1.97 trillion by 2031.
- More than 58% of all commercial real estate loans held by **Texas** banks are managed by community banks. In the first quarter of 2024, commercial real estate loans constituted 55% of all loans held by Texas community banks.
Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Loans (including working capital, business expansion, equipment, and machinery purchase loans)
- The **U.S.** Commercial Banking Market, which includes commercial lending, was valued at $231.9 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $351.8 billion by 2033. Commercial lending accounted for 43.78% of the U.S. commercial banking market share in 2025.
- The Commercial Banking industry market size in **Oklahoma** is estimated at $13.4 billion in 2026.
Agricultural Loans
- Specific addressable market sizes for agricultural loans in Texas and Oklahoma were not readily available in the search results. These loans are typically a component of broader commercial lending activities.
Consumer Loans (automobile, recreational vehicle, boat, home improvement, personal, deposit account collateralized, consumer durables, home equity loans)
- Total outstanding balances on auto loans and leases in the **U.S.** increased to $1.64 trillion as of March 2024. The average auto loan debt per consumer was $22,612 in 2022.
- Unsecured personal loan balances in the **U.S.** rose to $232 billion in Q2 2023.
- The average credit card debt per American adult was $6,088 in 2023, with total credit card debt surpassing $1 trillion.
- Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) averaged $41,045 in 2022 in the **U.S.**.
Other Financial Services (internet banking, mobile banking, trust and wealth management, retail brokerage, mortgage services, treasury management, debit and credit cards)
- The **U.S.** retail banking market, which encompasses many of these consumer-facing services including digital banking and cards, generated $454.3 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach $678.3 billion by 2033.
- Treasury Management services within the **U.S.** commercial banking market are projected to be a fast-growing area, with a CAGR of 6.58% through 2031.
- Specific market sizes for trust and wealth management or retail brokerage in Texas and Oklahoma were not found. However, these services fall under the broader financial services industry, and given Prosperity Bancshares' presence, they address the segments of the wealth management and retail investment markets within their operating regions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Prosperity Bancshares (PB) over the next 2-3 years:- Net Interest Margin Expansion: Prosperity Bancshares anticipates continued improvement in its net interest margin (NIM) as its bond and loan portfolios reprice. The company's management expects the net interest margin to trend higher, reaching at least 3.5% for 2026 and potentially continuing to improve in 2027 and 2028. This improvement is supported by lower funding costs, balance sheet repricing benefits, and lower average deposit balances.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: Prosperity Bancshares has a history of growth through acquisitions and continues this strategy. The company completed the merger with Lone Star State Bancshares in April 2024, the acquisition of American Bank Holding Corporation in January 2026, and is expecting the acquisition of Southwest Bancshares to become effective in February 2026. Additionally, a definitive merger agreement to acquire Stellar Bancorp was announced in January 2026, which is expected to further expand its footprint in the Houston and Beaumont areas. These strategic combinations are expected to enhance market share, particularly in high-growth areas of Texas and Oklahoma, and contribute to net interest income.
- Loan Growth: While loan growth has been challenging in some periods due to high interest rates, Prosperity Bancshares generally expects low to mid-single-digit loan growth. Organic loan growth was noted in 2023, and total loans grew 1.6% annualized quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2024. Management anticipates low single-digit loan growth throughout 2026 as it focuses on integrating recent acquisitions.
- Deposit Stabilization and Core Deposit Growth: The company has observed stabilization and modest increases in core deposits. Increased deposit balances contribute to a more stable funding base and can help manage funding costs, which in turn supports net interest income growth.
- Growth in Non-Interest Income: Prosperity Bancshares has seen an increase in non-interest income, driven by various fee-based revenues, excluding non-sufficient funds (NSF) fees and net gains on asset sales. Continued growth in these areas, such as internet banking, mobile banking, trust and wealth management, retail brokerage, and mortgage services, can diversify revenue streams and contribute to overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Prosperity Bancshares authorized a new stock repurchase program on January 26, 2026, permitting the repurchase of up to 5%, or approximately 4.87 million shares, of its outstanding common stock over a one-year period expiring on January 26, 2027.
- Under its 2025 stock repurchase program, the company repurchased approximately 2.34 million shares for $157.1 million during the year ended December 31, 2025.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Prosperity Bancshares repurchased approximately 2.04 million shares for $137.2 million.
Share Issuance
- In the first quarter of 2026, Prosperity Bancshares issued 4,439,938 shares of its common stock for all outstanding shares of American Bank Holding Corporation following its acquisition.
- In the first quarter of 2026, 4,094,974 shares of common stock were issued for the acquisition of Southwest Bancshares, Inc.
- For the pending merger with Stellar Bancorp, Inc., announced in January 2026, Prosperity Bancshares will issue 0.3803 shares of its common stock and $11.36 in cash for each outstanding share of Stellar common stock, with the total consideration valued at approximately $2.002 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Prosperity Bancshares completed the acquisition of American Bank Holding Corporation on January 1, 2026, for an approximate value of $321.5 million.
- The company completed the merger with Southwest Bancshares, Inc. on February 1, 2026, in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $268.9 million.
- A definitive merger agreement was announced on January 28, 2026, to acquire Stellar Bancorp, Inc. for approximately $2.002 billion, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Prosperity Bancshares invested $9.9 million in capital expenditures during the fourth quarter of 2025.
- This amount represents an 8.1% increase from the prior quarter.
- These capital expenditures were primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
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| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -4.0% |
| 03312020 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 8.2% | 60.0% | -7.1% |
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,277 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 463 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 424 |
| CFO LTM | 471 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 450 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 37.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 11.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $67.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/12/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $67.80 | $67.57 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.3% | 22.9% |
| Downside Capture | 110.38 | 92.21 |
| Upside Capture | 42.62 | 59.21 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.4% | 41.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.70 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.84 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Down Beta | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | 54% | 45% | 51% | 72% | 56% | 58% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 37 | 68 | 134 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 151% | 66% | 43% | 67% | 90% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 25 | 55 | 116 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB | -1.6% | 23.1% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.1% | 14.6% | 0.12 | 55.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 32.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | -4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.3% | 18.5% | 2.06 | -10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 36.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | 15.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB | 1.1% | 25.6% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.7% | 18.6% | 0.35 | 67.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 51.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.4% | 0.47 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 50.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 16.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB | 5.9% | 30.8% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 76.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 58.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | -9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 22.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 51.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -0.9% | 0.1% | |
| 1/28/2026 | -7.9% | -2.9% | -0.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.9% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| 7/23/2025 | -4.6% | -7.6% | -7.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% |
| 1/29/2025 | -0.7% | 0.3% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 12.6% |
| 7/24/2024 | 2.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.2% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.6% | 8.8% | 17.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -7.6% | -7.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Actual: 0.6 for Q1 2026 | ||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | 0.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 0.6 for Q4 2025 | ||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 0.05 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holmes, Ned S | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 70.21 | 500 | 35,105 | 5,484,439 | Form | |
| 2 | Holmes, Ned S | profit sharing plan | Sell | 5072026 | 70.25 | 500 | 35,125 | 6,581,933 | Form | |
| 3 | Holmes, Ned S | As trustee of SSH trust for adult daughter | Sell | 5072026 | 70.18 | 100 | 7,018 | 2,856,428 | Form | |
| 4 | Holmes, Ned S | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 69.86 | 500 | 34,932 | 5,527,282 | Form | |
| 5 | Holmes, Ned S | profit sharing plan | Sell | 4232026 | 69.85 | 500 | 34,924 | 6,614,183 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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