Tearsheet

Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.0 | Market Cap: $8.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $127.0
Market Cap: $8.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -226%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -226%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CFR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to a combination of factors related to analyst sentiment, company performance outlooks, and general market conditions.

1. Negative Technical Signals and Forecasts: Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. stock displayed several negative technical signals and was within a falling trend by early December 2025, leading to a "Strong Sell" candidate rating from some analyses. These technical indicators suggested a likelihood of continued weak performance in the near term.

2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Adjustments: Throughout the specified period, several analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for CFR. For instance, Citigroup set a price target of $114.00 on October 31, 2025, anticipating a possible 7.86% downside within 12 months. Jefferies issued a low price target of $105.00 on May 21, 2025, impacting longer-term sentiment. Additionally, DA Davidson downgraded their price target on February 3, 2025, from $138 to $143. While some analysts increased price targets, the overall consensus rating for CFR remained a "Hold" from a majority of analysts.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CFR Return-8%48%9%-17%28%-5%50%
Peers Return-8%5%-20%26%16%26%44%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CFR Win Rate42%75%50%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate18%25%25%33%33%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CFR Max Drawdown-49%0%-8%-36%-11%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-3%-25%-12%-3%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: C, USB, AVBC, LSBK, NU. See CFR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven297 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven611 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-41.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1530 days1480 days

Compare to C, USB, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Cullen/Frost Bankers's stock fell -47.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2022. A -47.3% loss requires a 89.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)

Better Bets than Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cullen/Frost Bankers

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFRCUSBAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameCullen/F.CitigroupU.S. Ban.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price126.95106.7250.9316.4715.0917.4434.19
Mkt Cap8.1194.379.3--84.281.7
Rev LTM2,19185,24428,18290268,9675,579
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM16-75,9689,900-843,65710
FCF 3Y Avg436-64,79910,581-52,317436
CFO LTM158-69,3919,900-443,94181
CFO 3Y Avg581-58,15310,581-52,506581

Growth & Margins

CFRCUSBAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameCullen/F.CitigroupU.S. Ban.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM7.9%8.4%4.0%-2.1%23.7%7.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.0%5.0%6.5%-0.0%70.1%6.5%
Rev Chg Q9.5%9.6%6.8%-16.5%20.4%9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%2.3%1.7%-4.0%5.0%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM7.2%-81.4%35.1%-4.2%17.4%44.0%12.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.7%-72.0%38.2%-19.2%37.8%28.7%
FCF/Rev LTM0.7%-89.1%35.1%-8.3%15.3%40.8%8.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.6%-80.3%38.2%-17.8%34.9%21.6%

Valuation

CFRCUSBAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameCullen/F.CitigroupU.S. Ban.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap8.1194.379.3--84.281.7
P/S3.72.22.7--7.43.2
P/EBIT-------
P/E12.712.610.5--28.812.7
P/CFO51.6-2.77.6--16.812.2
Total Yield11.0%8.0%13.7%--3.5%9.5%
Dividend Yield3.1%0.0%4.2%--0.0%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.7%-55.7%17.3%--4.3%5.5%
D/E0.02.01.0--0.00.5
Net D/E-2.3-1.2-1.0---0.4-1.1

Returns

CFRCUSBAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameCullen/F.CitigroupU.S. Ban.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn5.0%5.0%9.2%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.1%
3M Rtn-0.6%13.0%6.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn1.9%41.4%18.6%--46.1%30.0%
12M Rtn-6.1%53.6%2.1%--49.4%25.8%
3Y Rtn-2.0%151.9%28.9%--291.0%90.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.0%5.1%9.3%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-7.1%5.2%-0.7%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.3%
6M Excs Rtn-12.8%26.7%3.8%--31.3%15.3%
12M Excs Rtn-20.5%41.2%-13.7%--25.6%6.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.5%79.2%-38.3%--240.5%20.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking1,8141,5261,2111,3031,229
Frost Wealth Advisors187181170148150
Non-Banks-13-11-9-9-11
Total1,9871,6961,3721,4411,368


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking579552415322436
Frost Wealth Advisors3338371920
Non-Banks-21-18-16-18-21
Total591572436324436


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,210,556
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.3%
Average Daily Volume505,428
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.37
Basic Shares Quantity64,080,473
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021