Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -222%
  Key risks
CFR key risks include [1] significant concentration in the Texas market and [2] intense competitive pressure within that market.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.6%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -222%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x
6 Key risks
CFR key risks include [1] significant concentration in the Texas market and [2] intense competitive pressure within that market.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CFR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) stock moved by approximately 0.8% between August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat.

Cullen/Frost Bankers reported better-than-expected revenue in the third quarter of 2025, with sales increasing by 9.5% year-over-year to $567.3 million, and its non-GAAP profit of $2.67 per share exceeding analysts' consensus estimates by 12%. This positive earnings surprise was generally well-received by the market. 2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets.

During this period, several analysts issued or updated price targets for CFR, with a median target of $139.0 and an average consensus rating of "Hold." For instance, Barclays set a price target of $140.0 on December 19, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CFR Return-8%48%9%-17%28%-1%56%
Peers Return-4%32%-14%-5%21%13%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CFR Win Rate42%75%50%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%65%48%43%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CFR Max Drawdown-49%0%-8%-36%-11%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-3%-22%-40%-13%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMA, PB, ZION, TCBI, FFIN. See CFR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven297 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven611 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-41.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,530 days1,480 days

Compare to C, USB, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Cullen/Frost Bankers's stock fell -47.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2022. A -47.3% loss requires a 89.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)

Better Bets than Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CFR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cullen/Frost Bankers

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFRCMAPBZIONTCBIFFINMedian
NameCullen/F.Comerica Prosperi.Zions Ba.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Mkt Price129.0288.2671.4059.9492.5931.0679.83
Mkt Cap8.311.36.88.84.24.47.5
Rev LTM2,1913,3411,1913,3141,2126001,701
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1624238961229297233
FCF 3Y Avg436844501918308281468
CFO LTM1581252651,072249309257
CFO 3Y Avg5819765301,027339296556

Growth & Margins

CFRCMAPBZIONTCBIFFINMedian
NameCullen/F.Comerica Prosperi.Zions Ba.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Rev Chg LTM7.9%4.4%7.1%9.3%35.5%17.7%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.0%1.8%2.7%3.4%12.0%5.5%4.4%
Rev Chg Q9.5%3.3%3.9%8.7%171.6%15.8%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%0.8%1.0%2.1%21.6%3.7%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM7.2%3.7%22.3%32.3%20.5%51.5%21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.7%29.2%47.5%31.6%34.7%55.8%33.2%
FCF/Rev LTM0.7%0.7%20.0%29.0%18.9%49.5%19.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.6%25.3%44.9%28.2%31.4%53.0%29.8%

Valuation

CFRCMAPBZIONTCBIFFINMedian
NameCullen/F.Comerica Prosperi.Zions Ba.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
Mkt Cap8.311.36.88.84.24.47.5
P/S3.83.45.72.73.57.43.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E13.015.812.710.314.118.313.5
P/CFO52.590.425.68.217.014.421.3
Total Yield10.8%9.7%11.1%9.7%7.1%7.8%9.7%
Dividend Yield3.1%3.3%3.3%0.0%0.0%2.4%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.7%11.7%8.4%15.0%9.2%6.3%8.8%
D/E0.00.50.40.20.10.00.2
Net D/E-2.2-1.00.0-1.2-1.5-0.8-1.1

Returns

CFRCMAPBZIONTCBIFFINMedian
NameCullen/F.Comerica Prosperi.Zions Ba.Texas Ca.First Fi. 
1M Rtn7.3%16.3%8.6%18.9%9.3%3.5%8.9%
3M Rtn2.3%27.3%9.1%3.0%6.4%-10.4%4.7%
6M Rtn5.2%59.1%7.1%25.5%22.0%-10.0%14.6%
12M Rtn1.3%53.5%-0.4%18.4%20.6%-11.8%9.8%
3Y Rtn10.1%62.5%14.5%46.3%66.2%0.5%30.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.4%13.4%5.7%16.0%6.4%0.6%6.0%
3M Excs Rtn2.0%27.9%7.8%3.8%6.4%-11.1%5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-9.8%43.2%-8.3%9.8%6.4%-25.4%-1.0%
12M Excs Rtn-15.6%30.1%-18.8%-2.7%-0.5%-32.0%-9.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-63.4%-12.3%-56.3%-29.1%-7.2%-76.5%-42.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking1,8141,5261,2111,3031,229
Frost Wealth Advisors187181170148150
Non-Banks-13-11-9-9-11
Total1,9871,6961,3721,4411,368


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking579552415322436
Frost Wealth Advisors3338371920
Non-Banks-21-18-16-18-21
Total591572436324436


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,793,082
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202526.4%
Average Daily Volume454,097
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.15
Basic Shares Quantity64,080,473
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20251.7%2.2%3.5%
7/31/2025-4.9%-7.7%-2.4%
5/1/20253.3%5.3%9.9%
1/30/20251.2%1.1%-0.6%
10/31/2024-2.4%10.1%8.5%
7/25/20243.4%2.8%-4.2%
4/25/2024-5.2%-9.9%-12.8%
1/25/20240.5%-2.4%-1.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151514
# Negative9910
Median Positive3.3%3.3%5.3%
Median Negative-2.8%-5.0%-4.5%
Max Positive10.1%10.1%31.9%
Max Negative-7.6%-12.0%-18.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021