Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 5.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
Key risks
STEL key risks include [1] eroding profit margins and growth projected to lag the market, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
4 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Regional Banking & Financial Services. Themes include Local Commercial & Industrial Lending.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3%, FCF Yield is 5.3%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -47%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Regional Banking & Financial Services. Themes include Local Commercial & Industrial Lending.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%
9 Key risks
STEL key risks include [1] eroding profit margins and growth projected to lag the market, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

STEL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the 5.1% stock movement for Stellar Bancorp (STEL) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Stellar Bancorp Reported Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings. The company announced its third-quarter 2025 results on October 24, 2025, reporting net income of $25.7 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50. This EPS figure surpassed the forecast of $0.49. Management expressed satisfaction with improved net interest income and margin, alongside growth in deposits and tangible book value.

2. The Company Announced an Increase in its Quarterly Dividend. On November 20, 2025, Stellar Bancorp's Board of Directors declared an increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share of common stock, up from the previous $0.14 per share. This dividend is payable on December 31, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
STEL Return-16%16%3%-4%4%16%16%
Peers Return-8%33%2%-5%21%11%60%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
STEL Win Rate58%67%50%58%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate47%67%48%47%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
STEL Max Drawdown-57%-1%-8%-29%-22%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-3%-16%-32%-12%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PB, CFR, TCBI, BOKF, HWC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSTELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven355 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, CBC, HYNE, NU


In The Past

Stellar Bancorp's stock fell -43.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2022. A -43.0% loss requires a 75.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Stellar Bancorp (STEL)

Better Bets than Stellar Bancorp (STEL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to STEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Stellar Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

STELPBCFRTCBIBOKFHWCMedian
NameStellar .Prosperi.Cullen/F.Texas Ca.BOK Fina.Hancock . 
Mkt Price32.1971.92128.3793.33119.2166.0582.62
Mkt Cap1.76.88.24.37.55.66.2
Rev LTM4231,1912,1911,2121,9941,4851,348
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM83238162291,519566233
FCF 3Y Avg13450143630884541372
CFO LTM882651582491,519580257
CFO 3Y Avg14053058133984559435

Growth & Margins

STELPBCFRTCBIBOKFHWCMedian
NameStellar .Prosperi.Cullen/F.Texas Ca.BOK Fina.Hancock . 
Rev Chg LTM-3.1%7.1%7.9%35.5%2.8%8.7%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.3%2.7%13.0%12.0%7.6%4.1%9.8%
Rev Chg Q-2.0%3.9%9.5%171.6%6.0%5.2%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.5%1.0%2.3%21.6%1.5%1.3%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM20.7%22.3%7.2%20.5%76.1%39.1%21.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.2%47.5%28.7%34.7%5.5%39.0%32.9%
FCF/Rev LTM19.7%20.0%0.7%18.9%76.1%38.1%19.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg29.9%44.9%21.6%31.4%5.5%37.8%30.7%

Valuation

STELPBCFRTCBIBOKFHWCMedian
NameStellar .Prosperi.Cullen/F.Texas Ca.BOK Fina.Hancock . 
Mkt Cap1.76.88.24.37.55.66.2
P/S3.75.33.73.23.53.63.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E15.311.812.712.913.011.012.8
P/CFO17.823.851.615.54.69.216.6
Total Yield8.4%11.9%11.0%7.8%9.8%10.6%10.2%
Dividend Yield1.9%3.5%3.1%0.0%2.1%1.5%2.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.3%8.4%6.7%9.2%-1.4%13.1%8.8%
D/E0.00.40.00.20.50.30.2
Net D/E-0.50.0-2.3-1.6-0.20.0-0.3

Returns

STELPBCFRTCBIBOKFHWCMedian
NameStellar .Prosperi.Cullen/F.Texas Ca.BOK Fina.Hancock . 
1M Rtn9.7%11.9%7.9%12.9%15.6%18.3%12.4%
3M Rtn5.1%10.2%2.6%9.5%8.9%5.4%7.1%
6M Rtn21.7%8.0%5.5%23.3%30.3%25.0%22.5%
12M Rtn8.5%-5.2%-3.1%13.3%6.6%19.6%7.5%
3Y Rtn18.7%16.7%11.5%70.4%28.8%53.2%23.8%
1M Excs Rtn9.0%11.1%7.2%12.2%14.8%17.6%11.7%
3M Excs Rtn0.6%6.8%-0.8%4.9%4.7%2.1%3.4%
6M Excs Rtn9.3%-4.3%-6.8%10.9%17.9%12.6%10.1%
12M Excs Rtn-3.8%-18.1%-15.0%-0.5%-6.1%6.8%-4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.3%-55.1%-66.3%-8.3%-44.9%-30.1%-48.6%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking operations461309237142153
Total461309237142153


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,134,908
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.8%
Average Daily Volume290,592
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.91
Basic Shares Quantity51,283,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/24/20251.2%0.1%6.7%
7/25/2025-0.4%-6.3%-1.9%
4/25/2025-4.2%-6.2%-1.0%
1/30/2025-1.0%3.9%0.9%
10/25/20240.5%3.7%18.2%
7/26/20241.5%-4.0%-2.1%
4/26/2024-5.8%-3.7%-4.1%
1/26/20240.2%-6.2%-11.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111113
# Negative131311
Median Positive1.2%2.7%8.0%
Median Negative-2.5%-4.7%-4.2%
Max Positive4.8%13.9%19.2%
Max Negative-9.6%-7.7%-19.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021