Sysco (SYY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $74.06 | Market Cap: $35.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Distributors
Sysco (SYY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $74.06Market Cap: $35.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SYY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future stock performance or news events. Therefore, I cannot provide specific factual reasons for a hypothetical -8.1% stock movement for Sysco (SYY) during that future timeframe.
However, based on available forward-looking analyses and general industry challenges anticipated for 2025, several factors could potentially contribute to a stock decline for a foodservice distributor like Sysco.
1. Continued Macroeconomic Headwinds and Soft Restaurant Traffic: Broader economic uncertainties, such as rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and a tepid labor market, could dampen consumer spending on dining out. This could lead to stagnant or declining restaurant traffic, directly impacting Sysco's sales volume in its U.S. Foodservice segment.
2. Input Price Inflation and Pressure on Margins: Sysco has faced and is expected to continue encountering product cost inflation, particularly in categories like dairy and protein, due to supply constraints. While the company may try to pass these costs to customers, sustained inflation could pressure gross margins and erode profitability if not managed effectively.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SYY Return | -10% | 8% | -0% | -2% | 7% | -1% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 64% | 6% | -5% | 29% | 7% | 137% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SYY Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 55% | 53% | 50% | 62% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SYY Max Drawdown | -63% | -6% | -8% | -16% | -3% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -6% | -20% | -28% | -24% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: USFD, PFGC, CHEF, UNFI, MGPI. See SYY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SYY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 415 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1736 days | 1480 days |
Compare to USFD, PFGC, CHEF, UNFI, MGPI
In The Past
Sysco's stock fell -30.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -30.1% loss requires a 43.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SYY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sysco
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 35,450 |
| Op Inc LTM | 487 |
| FCF LTM | 381 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 330 |
| CFO LTM | 741 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 682 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.8 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Foodservice Operations | 55,339 | 53,683 | 48,521 | 35,725 | 36,774 |
| International Foodservice Operations | 14,561 | 13,560 | 11,787 | 8,351 | 9,672 |
| SYGMA | 7,768 | 7,843 | 7,246 | 6,499 | 5,556 |
| Other | 1,176 | 1,239 | 1,082 | 724 | 891 |
| Total | 78,844 | 76,325 | 68,636 | 51,298 | 52,893 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Foodservice Operations | 3,673 | 3,587 | 3,181 | 2,457 | 2,003 |
| International Foodservice Operations | 375 | 314 | 100 | -232 | -371 |
| SYGMA | 72 | 56 | -3 | 53 | 37 |
| Other | 40 | 57 | 17 | -0 | -21 |
| Global Support Center | -958 | -975 | -949 | -839 | -898 |
| Total | 3,202 | 3,039 | 2,346 | 1,437 | 750 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Foodservice Operations | 12,505 | 11,398 | 9,541 | 7,632 | 6,647 |
| International Foodservice Operations | 7,545 | 7,433 | 6,596 | 6,784 | 6,258 |
| Global Support Center | 3,328 | 2,506 | 4,559 | 5,781 | 8,579 |
| SYGMA | 923 | 840 | 835 | 760 | 685 |
| Other | 616 | 644 | 555 | 455 | 458 |
| Total | 24,917 | 22,821 | 22,086 | 21,414 | 22,628 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8222025 | 10-K 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1292025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8282024 | 10-K 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8252023 | 10-K 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8262022 | 10-K 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |