SM Energy (SM)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $18.53 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
SM Energy (SM)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $18.53Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 36%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 120% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | Key risksSM key risks include [1] significant integration and execution risks related to its Uinta Basin acquisition and pending merger with Civitas Resources, Show more. | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 36%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 32% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 120% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48% |
| Key risksSM key risks include [1] significant integration and execution risks related to its Uinta Basin acquisition and pending merger with Civitas Resources, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
<b>1. Declining Benchmark Oil Prices:</b> SM Energy's financial results for Q3 2025 indicated that resilient margins were maintained "Despite a decline of more than $10/Bbl in benchmark oil prices year-over-year". A general downturn in oil prices can exert downward pressure on the stock performance of energy companies.
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<b>2. Year-over-Year Decrease in Net Income:</b> For the third quarter of 2025, SM Energy reported a net income of $155.1 million, or $1.35 per diluted common share, which represented a decrease from $240.5 million, or $2.09 per diluted common share, in the same period of 2024. Similarly, adjusted net income also saw a decline year-over-year, coming in at $153.7 million, or $1.33 per diluted common share, for Q3 2025, compared to $186.4 million, or $1.62 per diluted common share, in Q3 2024.
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<b>3. Quarterly Revenue Below Analyst Expectations:</b> While SM Energy's revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 26.1% year-over-year to $811.59 million, this figure fell short of analysts' consensus expectations of $838.24 million. Missing revenue estimates can negatively influence investor sentiment.
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<b>4. Negative Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts:</b> Projections for SM Energy's future earnings indicated a downward trend. The company's EPS for 2025 was expected to decrease by 13.89% from 2024, and the forecast for 2026 showed a further anticipated decrease of 32.66% from the 2025 figures. Such negative earnings outlooks can lead to a decrease in stock valuation.
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<b>5. Analyst Price Target Reductions:</b> During the approximate period, several analysts maintained "Hold" ratings but lowered their price targets for SM Energy. For example, Wells Fargo reduced its price target from $30 to $23 on October 17, 2025, and Keybanc lowered its target from $36 to $28 on December 10, 2025. These downward revisions in price targets suggest a more cautious outlook from financial analysts on the stock's future performance.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.5% change in SM stock from 9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -23.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9262025 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.04 | 18.51 | -31.54% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3102.93 | 3271.56 | 5.43% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.19% | 22.23% | -15.12% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.81 | 2.92 | -23.29% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114.52 | 114.83 | -0.27% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.54% |
Market Drivers
9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SM | -31.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 19.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.9% | 76.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.2% change in SM stock from 6/27/2025 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -20.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6272025 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.42 | 18.51 | -24.21% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2951.31 | 3271.56 | 10.85% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.83% | 22.23% | -20.12% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.40 | 2.92 | -14.17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114.52 | 114.83 | -0.27% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.21% |
Market Drivers
6/27/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SM | -24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 19.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 4.5% | 80.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.8% change in SM stock from 12/26/2024 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -41.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12262024 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.16 | 18.51 | -48.81% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2442.28 | 3271.56 | 33.96% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.95% | 22.23% | -34.52% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.99 | 2.92 | -41.43% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114.41 | 114.83 | -0.37% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.81% |
Market Drivers
12/26/2024 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SM | -48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 55.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 7.1% | 83.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.8% change in SM stock from 12/27/2022 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a -38.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12272022 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.93 | 18.51 | -43.79% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3529.02 | 3271.56 | -7.30% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 36.23% | 22.23% | -38.63% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.17 | 2.92 | -7.91% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123.19 | 114.83 | 6.79% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.05% |
Market Drivers
12/27/2023 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SM | -50.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 50.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 9.7% | 80.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SM Return | -45% | 382% | 19% | 13% | 2% | -50% | 83% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SM Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SM Max Drawdown | -91% | 0% | 0% | -27% | -8% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See SM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -91.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1102.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 317 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -80.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 401.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 742 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SM Energy's stock fell -53.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -53.4% loss requires a 114.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for SM Energy (SM):
- A focused U.S. oil and gas producer, like a smaller ConocoPhillips.
- An independent oil and gas driller, similar in scope to a regional EOG Resources.
- A pure-play U.S. oil and gas company, much like what Pioneer Natural Resources was known for, but on a smaller scale.
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- Crude Oil: A primary raw fossil fuel extracted from underground reservoirs.
- Natural Gas: A gaseous hydrocarbon, primarily methane, used as a fuel and industrial feedstock.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Valuable hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, and butane separated from natural gas streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
SM Energy (SM) is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. As such, it sells its produced commodities primarily to other companies in the energy value chain, not directly to individual consumers.
Based on SM Energy's public filings (such as its annual 10-K reports), the company states that it does not believe the loss of any one customer would have a material adverse effect on its financial condition or results of operations. This indicates that SM Energy does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customers" that account for a significant portion of its revenue. Instead, it sells its commodities to a diverse group of purchasers.
The categories of companies that typically purchase SM Energy's production include:
- Midstream Companies: These companies operate the infrastructure for gathering, processing, transporting, and storing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. They are crucial intermediaries in getting SM Energy's products from the wellhead to market. Examples of public midstream companies include Enbridge (ENB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and Energy Transfer (ET).
- Refiners: Companies that purchase crude oil to process it into various refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Examples of public refiners include Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC), Valero Energy Corp (VLO), and Phillips 66 (PSX).
- Commodity Marketers and Traders: These companies specialize in buying and selling energy commodities, often facilitating transactions between producers and end-users (like industrial facilities or power generators). They provide liquidity to the market and manage price risk.
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Herbert S. Vogel President & CEO
Mr. Vogel was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer and to the Board of Directors of SM Energy in November 2020. He joined SM Energy in March 2012 as Senior Vice President—Portfolio Development and Technical Services. Prior to SM Energy, Mr. Vogel retired from BP, where he most recently served as the President of BP Energy Co. and Regional Business Unit Leader of North American Gas & Power. His previous roles at BP included COO-NGL, Power & Financial Products in Houston, Managing Director Gas Europe & Africa in London, and Senior Vice President of the Tangguh LNG Project in Indonesia. He began his career as a reservoir engineer with ARCO Alaska, Inc., and progressed through various positions of increasing responsibility in engineering, operations management, new ventures development, and business unit management at ARCO and BP.
A. Wade Pursell Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Pursell joined SM Energy as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in September 2008. Before joining SM Energy, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. from 2007 to 2008. From October 2000 to February 2007, he served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Helix. He joined Helix in May 1997 as Vice President—Finance and Chief Accounting Officer. Prior to Helix, Mr. Pursell was with Arthur Andersen LLP from 1988 through May 1997, where he served in roles of increasing responsibility, culminating as an Experienced Manager specializing in the offshore services industry.
Elizabeth McDonald President & Chief Operating Officer
Ms. McDonald was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer effective September 4, 2025, and is intended to be promoted to President and Chief Executive Officer upon Mr. Vogel's retirement in March 2026. She has 23 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. Before joining SM Energy, she served as Executive Vice President - Strategic Planning, Field Development and Marketing for Pioneer Natural Resources Company. She spent approximately twenty years at Pioneer in leadership positions focused on the Permian Basin and South Texas. Earlier in her career, she held various engineering roles at Hess Corp. and Total E&P USA.
Dean A. Lutey Senior Vice President & Chief Information Officer
Mr. Lutey was promoted to Senior Vice President - Chief Information Officer effective March 2, 2025. He previously served as Director of Information Technology and as Manager of Production Services at SM Energy. He also held the position of Director of Technical Information Systems for ConocoPhillips Canada from April 2006 to September 2007.
Jennifer Martin Samuels Vice President, Investor Relations & ESG Stewardship
Ms. Samuels joined SM Energy in 2015 as Senior Director – Investor Relations, was appointed Vice President – Investor Relations in February 2018, and ESG Stewardship was added to her title in January 2023. Prior to SM Energy, she served as Vice President of Investor Relations at Bill Barrett Corporation from 2007 to 2015 and held Vice President positions in Planning and Investor Relations at AIMCO. She began her career with Apache Corporation. Ms. Samuels' retirement from her current position is effective March 7, 2025, and she plans to remain with the company in an advisory capacity until later this year.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to SM Energy's business:- Commodity Price Volatility: SM Energy's financial condition, profitability, and cash flows are heavily dependent on the volatile prices of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Declines in these prices can significantly reduce the company's revenues and may lead to impairments of its oil and gas properties.
- Acquisition and Integration Risks: The company faces ongoing operational challenges and potential unknown liabilities related to the integration of assets from its Uinta Basin acquisition. Furthermore, the recently announced all-stock merger with Civitas Resources introduces additional layers of integration, regulatory, and asset sale execution risks, including a plan to sell at least $1 billion of non-core assets. This merger agreement also imposes strategic constraints on SM Energy and includes a substantial termination fee.
- Debt Burden and Financial Flexibility: SM Energy carries a significant debt load, which can become more challenging to service in an environment of lower commodity prices. The company "levered up" to acquire the Uinta Basin assets, increasing its leverage. A high debt burden limits SM Energy's financial flexibility and its ability to respond to adverse economic conditions or pursue future growth initiatives.
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Accelerating Energy Transition and Decarbonization Policies: The rapid global adoption of renewable energy technologies (solar, wind), widespread electrification of transportation, and increasingly ambitious decarbonization policies and net-zero commitments from governments and major corporations are creating an accelerating shift away from fossil fuels. This trend poses a clear emerging threat of long-term demand erosion for SM Energy's oil and natural gas products, potentially leading to sustained downward pressure on commodity prices and reduced asset values. Evidence includes record investments in renewables, soaring electric vehicle sales, and numerous national and corporate net-zero targets.
Intensifying ESG-Driven Capital Constraints: Financial institutions, institutional investors, and regulatory bodies are increasingly implementing stringent Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. This growing pressure represents an emerging threat by potentially increasing SM Energy's cost of capital, limiting access to traditional financing sources, and facing divestment campaigns. As capital markets increasingly prioritize sustainable investments, SM Energy may find it more challenging and expensive to fund its operations and future growth projects. Evidence includes major banks restricting fossil fuel lending, asset managers divesting from carbon-intensive industries, and shareholder resolutions focused on climate risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
SM Energy (symbol: SM) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company whose main products are crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The addressable market for these products is primarily the United States.
The U.S. oil and gas market was valued at approximately USD 453.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 665.5 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.7% from 2024 to 2033. Another estimate places the U.S. oil & gas market size at USD 1.55 trillion in 2024, growing to USD 1.61 trillion in 2025, and projected to reach around USD 2.24 trillion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 3.75% between 2025 and 2034.
More specifically for the upstream sector, where SM Energy primarily operates, the U.S. oil and gas upstream market accounted for 58.5% of the total market share in 2024. The oil drilling and gas extraction market in the U.S. was valued at $488.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to be $484.6 billion in 2025. This sector is anticipated to have grown at a 9.5% CAGR between 2020 and 2025.
Regarding natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that dry gas production in the U.S. will increase from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 104.9 bcfd in 2025 and to 106.4 bcfd by 2026. Domestic gas consumption is also predicted to rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.3 bcfd by 2025. The EIA expects both supply and demand for natural gas to reach new highs in 2025 and 2026.
For crude oil, the EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in both 2025 and 2026.
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SM Energy (SM) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and operational strengths, most notably its recent transformational merger and continued development in key basins.
- Increased Oil-Weighted Production from Core Assets: SM Energy projects significant growth in its overall and oil-weighted production, primarily from its established positions in the Midland Basin, South Texas, and the recently integrated Uinta Basin. The company anticipates a 20% increase in total production and a 30% surge in oil production by 2025 compared to 2023 levels. For the full year 2025, SM Energy has reaffirmed total net production guidance of 200,000 to 215,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), with oil contributing an increased percentage of 53% to 54%. This focus on higher-margin liquids production, particularly from the Uinta Basin, is expected to be a primary driver.
- Strategic Merger with Civitas Resources: On November 3, 2025, SM Energy and Civitas Resources announced a definitive merger agreement, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026. This $12.8 billion all-stock transaction will create a new shale energy giant with an expanded portfolio of approximately 823,000 net acres, with the Permian Basin being a cornerstone, and also including positions in the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) and Uinta basins. The combined entity is projected to achieve annual synergies totaling $200 million, with potential for up to $300 million, through reduced overhead, general and administrative (G&A) costs, lower drilling and completion, and operational costs, and cost-of-capital savings. This enhanced scale and significant synergies are expected to meaningfully increase the pro forma company's free cash flow generation, which is projected to exceed $1.4 billion for full-year 2025.
- Operational Efficiencies and Capital Optimization: SM Energy consistently emphasizes its commitment to operational excellence, capital discipline, and technological innovation. The company's efforts in advanced drilling and completion techniques have led to improved well productivity and reduced costs across its assets, including the Midland and Uinta Basins. These efficiencies allow for maximizing returns from invested capital and enhancing production performance, which supports resilient net margins and free cash flow even in fluctuating commodity price environments.
- Uinta Basin Asset Optimization and Premium Pricing: The Uinta Basin assets, acquired in 2024, have consistently outperformed expectations and are a key contributor to SM Energy's production growth. The waxy crude produced from the Uinta Basin commands a market premium, leading to higher realized prices and strong cash production margins. The company is focused on optimizing these assets further, including efforts to improve transportation logistics and takeaway capacity, which will continue to drive revenue growth from this region.
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Share Repurchases
- SM Energy initiated a return of capital strategy in September 2022, including a share repurchase authorization of up to $500 million through year-end 2024.
- A new $500 million share repurchase program was authorized in June 2024, extending through 2027, replacing the remaining existing program.
- Approximately 10.1 million shares were repurchased from the program's announcement in September 2022 through year-end 2024. In the third quarter of 2025, $12.1 million was used for share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In November 2025, SM Energy announced it would issue approximately 126.3 million shares of common stock as consideration to Civitas Resources shareholders as part of an all-stock merger.
- Upon completion of the merger, expected in the first quarter of 2026, Civitas stockholders will own approximately 52% of the combined company, and SM Energy stockholders will own approximately 48%.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2024, SM Energy agreed to acquire an 80% undivided interest in the Uinta Basin oil and gas assets of XCL Resources for a net purchase price of $2.04 billion, with the acquisition closing in October 2024 for $2.1 billion net to SM Energy.
- In November 2025, SM Energy announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire Civitas Resources in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $12.8 billion, inclusive of net debt.
- This merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will create a combined company operating under the SM Energy name with an expanded portfolio across U.S. shale basins, notably strengthening its position in the Permian Basin.
Capital Expenditures
- SM Energy's capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions, were approximately $1.29 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, projected capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions, are in the range of $1.375 billion to $1.395 billion, increased to accommodate incremental working interests in highly economic wells and non-operated projects.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes building production and exploration capacities, with a notable shift in development spending towards the Uinta Basin in 2025, and investing in advanced oil extraction methods like hydraulic fracking.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to SM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.1% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.1% | 28.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.9% | -4.9% | -7.1% |
| 12312022 | SM | SM Energy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | 13.1% | -27.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for SM Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $18.51 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/21/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -56.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $19.27 | $23.77 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -3.9% | -22.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.8% | 56.9% |
| Downside Capture | 109.00 | 134.31 |
| Upside Capture | -94.79 | 48.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.6% | 55.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 1.05 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 1.64 | 1.44 |
| Up Beta | 1.68 | 1.83 | 2.29 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.78 |
| Down Beta | 2.55 | 1.91 | 1.98 | 1.69 | 2.21 | 1.90 |
| Up Capture | -64% | -51% | -102% | -12% | 28% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 27 | 59 | 116 | 384 |
| Down Capture | 31% | 127% | 73% | 51% | 121% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 23 | 35 | 66 | 132 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of SM With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -47.3% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 72.1% | 8.6% | 4.4% | -8.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 56.6% | 24.4% | 19.4% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.92 | 0.29 | 0.72 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.09 | -0.08 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 83.2% | 55.8% | 2.7% | 64.5% | 39.4% | 28.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of SM With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 27.4% | 21.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 30.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 61.3% | 26.7% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 77.3% | 38.7% | 10.9% | 59.5% | 25.0% | 21.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of SM With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 0.3% | 8.2% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 83.6% | 29.8% | 18.0% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 71.8% | 39.8% | -0.1% | 55.6% | 29.5% | 13.6% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.4% | -12.5% | -3.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.4% | -5.1% | 3.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.6% | -3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | -4.4% | -16.6% | -20.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -4.0% | 3.1% | 5.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 10.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.0% | 6.7% | -0.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.5% | -1.7% | 20.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 8.0% | 12.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -8.5% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 74.6% | 87.3% | 187.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.1% | -28.2% | -85.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jenkins Richard A. | Senior Vice President - Utah | 6182025 | Sell | 28.49 | 7,726 | 220,114 | 674,301 | Form |
| 1 | Vogel Herbert S | President & CEO | 5082025 | Buy | 21.32 | 1,000 | 21,320 | 10,406,313 | Form |
| 2 | PERU RAMIRO G | 3052025 | Buy | 28.72 | 5,000 | 143,600 | 2,370,405 | Form | |
| 3 | Vogel Herbert S | President & CEO | 3042025 | Buy | 29.67 | 500 | 14,835 | 14,452,287 | Form |
| 4 | BROOKMAN BARTON R JR | 2272025 | Buy | 32.36 | 7,000 | 226,520 | 474,592 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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