SM Energy (SM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.27 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
SM Energy (SM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.27Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 27%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 23% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -48% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for SM Energy (symbol: SM) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. As such, historical data and specific reasons for a -28.6% stock movement during this future period are not available.
However, based on available news and projections for SM Energy within the broader 2025 timeframe, several significant factors were at play that could influence stock performance, though not tied to a specific -28.6% drop in the requested future period.
1. Merger with Civitas Resources: SM Energy announced a $12.8 billion all-stock merger with Civitas Resources, Inc., with additional details released in November 2025. This transformational combination aims to create a formidable exploration and production company, enhance scale and capabilities, and is expected to generate significant synergies ranging from $200 million to $300 million annually. The deal is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2026.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Production Growth: SM Energy reported strong third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.33 per share, surpassing consensus estimates. The company also reported record-breaking Q2 production of 209.1 MBoe/d with 55% oil content. SM Energy reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, maintaining capital expenditure targets and expecting total net production between 200-215 MBoe/d.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SM Return | -45% | 382% | 19% | 13% | 2% | -48% | 89% |
| Peers Return | -46% | 83% | 80% | -2% | -14% | 20% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SM Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 55% | 62% | 43% | 40% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SM Max Drawdown | -91% | 0% | 0% | -27% | -8% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -9% | -2% | -22% | -28% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SR, OGS, CVI, BTU, KOS. See SM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -91.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1102.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 317 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -80.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 401.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 742 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 458.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SR, OGS, CVI, BTU, KOS
In The Past
SM Energy's stock fell -53.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -53.4% loss requires a 114.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 12312022 | SM | SM Energy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | 13.1% | -27.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 12312022 | SM | SM Energy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | 13.1% | -27.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SM Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,854 |
| Op Inc LTM | 372 |
| FCF LTM | -139 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -133 |
| CFO LTM | 492 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 611 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.4 |
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jenkins Richard A. | Senior Vice President - Utah | 6182025 | Sell | 28.49 | 7,726 | 220,114 | 674,301 | Form |
| 1 | Vogel Herbert S | President & CEO | 5082025 | Buy | 21.32 | 1,000 | 21,320 | 10,406,313 | Form |
| 2 | PERU RAMIRO G | 3052025 | Buy | 28.72 | 5,000 | 143,600 | 2,370,405 | Form | |
| 3 | Vogel Herbert S | President & CEO | 3042025 | Buy | 29.67 | 500 | 14,835 | 14,452,287 | Form |
| 4 | BROOKMAN BARTON R JR | 2272025 | Buy | 32.36 | 7,000 | 226,520 | 474,592 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |