Matador Resources (MTDR)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $55.24 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Matador Resources (MTDR)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $55.24Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% Key risksMTDR key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with minimal cash reserves and [2] high vulnerability to regional regulatory changes and potential exploration bans due to its operational concentration in the Delaware Basin. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.4% |
| Key risksMTDR key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden with minimal cash reserves and [2] high vulnerability to regional regulatory changes and potential exploration bans due to its operational concentration in the Delaware Basin. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Surging Crude Oil Prices: Geopolitical tensions, notably military action in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, 2026, significantly drove up crude oil prices. Brent crude oil futures surged from $61 per barrel at the start of 2026 to $118 per barrel by the end of Q1 2026, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touched $114.58 a barrel on April 7, 2026.
2. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Increased Production Guidance: Matador Resources reported Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53 on May 6, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst consensus estimates, which ranged from $1.26 to $1.34, by 14.18% to 21.4%. The company also raised its full-year 2026 oil and total BOE production guidance, indicating improved capital efficiency without increasing capital expenditure guidance. First-quarter average daily total production of 207,594 BOE per day surpassed the upper end of prior guidance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.9% change in MTDR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 98.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.60 | 55.26 | 23.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,825 | 3,592 | -6.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 13.5% | -34.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.1 | 14.1 | 98.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 123 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 23.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | -33.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 9.8% | 85.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.4% change in MTDR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.53 | 55.26 | 43.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,825 | 3,592 | -6.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 13.5% | -34.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 14.1 | 130.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 123 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 43.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | -21.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.3% | 79.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.1% change in MTDR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 176.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.07 | 55.26 | 45.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,700 | 3,592 | -2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.2% | 13.5% | -46.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.1 | 14.1 | 176.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 125 | 123 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 45.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 1.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 42.8% | 76.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.6% change in MTDR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 202.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.82 | 55.26 | 20.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,097 | 3,592 | 16.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 37.8% | 13.5% | -64.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.7 | 14.1 | 202.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 123 | -3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 20.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 37.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 44.3% | 82.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTDR Return | 207% | 56% | 1% | 0% | -22% | 32% | 396% |
| Peers Return | 109% | 46% | 1% | -2% | 1% | 32% | 304% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTDR Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 60% | 54% | 46% | 58% | 76% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTDR Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | -26% | -16% | -34% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | 0% | -16% | -13% | -17% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FANG, EOG, DVN, PR, CTRA. See MTDR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -90.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 989.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 904 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Matador Resources's stock fell -34.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 53.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 331 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -90.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 989.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 904 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Matador Resources's stock fell -34.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 53.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Matador Resources (MTDR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Matador Resources (MTDR):
-
Think of them as a focused, independent oil and natural gas producer that's like a smaller Chevron, but specialized in drilling in key US shale basins and also owning and operating much of its own pipelines and processing plants.
-
Essentially a US-based integrated energy company, similar to a regional BP, but intensely concentrated on developing oil and gas from shale formations and providing midstream services to itself and other companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Oil: Matador Resources engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil.
- Natural Gas: The company is involved in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas.
- Natural Gas Processing Services: Matador Resources provides services for processing natural gas.
- Oil Transportation Services: The company offers services for transporting crude oil.
- Oil, Natural Gas, and Produced Water Gathering Services: Matador Resources provides services for collecting and transporting oil, natural gas, and produced water.
- Produced Water Disposal Services: The company offers services for the disposal of produced water.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Matador Resources Company (symbol: MTDR) sells its products and services primarily to other companies, not to individuals.
As an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, and also providing midstream services, Matador Resources typically sells its commodities (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids) and services to other entities within the energy value chain. Specific customer company names are generally not publicly disclosed by such companies unless a single customer accounts for a significant portion (e.g., 10% or more) of their revenue, and such information is not available in the provided background. Therefore, the major customers can be categorized by the types of companies they represent:
- Refineries and Petrochemical Companies: These companies purchase crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from Matador Resources to process into various refined petroleum products (like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and chemical feedstocks.
- Natural Gas Utilities, Power Generation Companies, and Industrial Users: These customers purchase natural gas for distribution to residential and commercial end-users, for electricity generation, or as a raw material/fuel for various industrial processes.
- Other Energy Companies, Marketing Firms, and Traders: Matador Resources provides midstream services such as natural gas processing, oil transportation, and gathering services for oil, natural gas, and produced water, as well as produced water disposal. These services are typically utilized by other exploration and production companies, marketing firms, or energy traders to manage their own commodity volumes. These entities may also purchase crude oil and natural gas commodities from Matador.
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Joseph Wm. Foran
Founder, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Joseph Wm. Foran founded Foran Oil Company in June 1983, which was the predecessor of Matador Resources Company. In 1988, he founded Matador Petroleum Corporation, where he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer until its sale to Tom Brown, Inc. in June 2003 for $388 million in an all-cash transaction. Immediately following this sale, Mr. Foran founded Matador Resources Company in July 2003, where he has since served as Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive Officer. Early backing for Matador Resources Company included private equity firms such as Warburg Pincus.
Robert T. Macalik
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Robert T. Macalik was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Matador Resources Company on September 30, 2025. He joined Matador in July 2015 as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. Prior to joining Matador, Mr. Macalik worked at Pioneer Natural Resources Company from 2012 to 2015, where he held positions as Corporate Controller and Director of Technical Accounting and Financial Reporting. Before Pioneer, he was a Senior Manager with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) starting in 2002, where he managed audits for public companies, primarily in the oil and natural gas industry.
Van H. Singleton II
Co-President – Land, Acquisitions and Divestitures and Planning
Bryan A. Erman
Co-President, Chief Legal Officer and Head of M&A
Christopher P. Calvert
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
AI Analysis | Feedback
Matador Resources Company (MTDR), an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources, faces several key business risks.Key Risks to Matador Resources (MTDR)
- Commodity Price Volatility: Matador Resources is significantly exposed to the volatile prices of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which directly influence its revenue, profitability, and cash flows. Fluctuations in these commodity prices, influenced by geopolitical events and supply-demand dynamics, can negatively impact the company's financial performance. For example, negative Waha natural gas prices in late 2025 led to voluntary production curtailments for Matador. While the company employs hedging strategies to mitigate some of this price volatility, it remains a primary liquidity risk.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: The company faces considerable regulatory risks, particularly due to its substantial operations on federal lands. Potential changes in complex environmental laws, tax legislation, and new climate disclosure rules (such as those proposed by the SEC) could increase compliance costs and operational restrictions. Furthermore, the broader energy transition, including a global shift towards renewables, tighter emissions regulations, and potential future bans on new exploration licenses, poses a long-term threat to Matador's asset values and growth prospects.
- Operational Risks and Geographic Concentration: Matador Resources' business model inherently involves operational risks associated with the speculative nature of drilling and production, including uncertainties in drilling success rates and potential for significant financial losses. A substantial portion of Matador's operations and proved reserves are concentrated in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, making the company vulnerable to regional disruptions. These disruptions could include severe weather events, infrastructure constraints, or regulatory changes specific to the Delaware Basin. Delays in developing reserves or increased costs for drilling and development could also reduce the present value of its estimated proved undeveloped reserves.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global energy transition towards renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, which directly threatens the long-term demand for Matador Resources' primary products, oil and natural gas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Matador Resources Company primarily operates in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The addressable markets for its main products, crude oil and natural gas, are defined by the production volumes within the specific basins where the company operates in the United States.
Delaware Basin (Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, U.S.)
- The Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin, is a significant oil and gas producing region. Total hydrocarbon production in the Delaware Basin was estimated to reach a record 5.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) on average in 2022.
- As of February 28, 2025, the gross production for the Delaware Basin was reported at 3.2 million barrels of oil per day (MMBopd) and 14.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) of natural gas.
- In April 2022, the Permian Basin, which includes the Delaware Basin, accounted for 43.6% of oil production and nearly 15% of natural gas production within the U.S.
- Natural gas production in the Delaware Basin alone is more than 12 billion cubic feet of gas a day (Bcf/d).
- The Permian Basin's natural gas production is forecasted to climb to 27.7 Bcf/d in 2025 and 28 Bcf/d in 2026. In 2025, the Permian Basin's marketed gas production averaged 27.7 Bcf/d, representing 23% of total U.S. marketed gas production.
Eagle Ford Shale Play (South Texas, U.S.)
- The Eagle Ford Shale region currently generates approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (b/d) from horizontal wells. This oil production is forecasted to remain around 1.1 million b/d through 2026.
- Natural gas production in the Eagle Ford Shale reached approximately 6.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). U.S. annual natural gas production from the Eagle Ford region is expected to increase from 6.8 Bcf/d in 2024 to 7.0 Bcf/d in 2026.
- The Eagle Ford play specifically accounts for 73% (5.5 Bcf/d) of the region's natural gas production and 86% (1.0 million b/d) of its oil production.
Haynesville Shale (Northwest Louisiana and East Texas, U.S.)
- Natural gas production from the Haynesville Shale averaged 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025.
- Haynesville gas production is projected to grow to an average of 15.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and further increase to 17.1 Bcf/d in 2027. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also anticipates Haynesville production to reach 15.2 Bcf/d in 2025 and 15.6 Bcf/d in 2026.
- The Haynesville Shale is expected to become the top source of U.S. natural gas production growth in 2027.
Cotton Valley Play (Northwest Louisiana, U.S.)
- While a comprehensive market size for the entire Cotton Valley play in terms of current production was not readily available, Matador Resources has identified 200-300 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas opportunities within the Cotton Valley. The Cotton Valley formation is located along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Matador Resources (MTDR) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Oil and Natural Gas Production Volumes: Matador Resources consistently projects and has achieved significant growth in its oil and natural gas equivalent (BOE) production. The company reported record production in Q4 2025 of 211,290 BOE per day and has provided 2026 guidance forecasting approximately 3% oil production growth to 123,000 barrels of oil per day, with overall production expected to be between 209,500 and 215,000 BOE per day. This anticipated increase in volumes directly translates to higher revenue, assuming stable or favorable commodity prices. The company also expects to produce over 200,000 BOE per day in 2025.
- Expansion and Growth of Midstream Assets: The company's midstream segment, including its 51%-owned San Mateo assets and wholly-owned facilities, is a key growth driver. Matador plans for continued midstream expansions, such as the Marlin II plant expansion expected in the first half of 2025, to increase takeaway capacity and operational efficiency. Management projects the combined Adjusted EBITDA of its midstream assets to grow by 8% in 2026 to $360 million, driven by both Matador's and third-party volumes.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Acreage Expansion: Matador has a history of strategic acquisitions that expand its operational footprint and resource base. For instance, the company successfully integrated the Advance acreage acquisition in 2023, which surpassed production expectations, and the Ameredev acquisition contributed to production growth in 2024. In 2025, Matador expanded its Delaware Basin footprint by 17,500 net acres, bringing its total to approximately 212,500 net acres. The company continues to prioritize quality land acquisitions and reserves growth as strategic objectives for 2026.
- Improved Capital Efficiency and Operational Optimization: Matador's focus on capital efficiency and operational improvements allows it to achieve production growth with reduced capital expenditure. The company's 2026 operating plan anticipates growing oil production by approximately 3% while simultaneously cutting total capital expenditures by 11%. This is achieved through initiatives like reduced drilling and completion costs (projected at $795 per lateral foot in 2026, a 6% reduction from 2025) and a 13% reduction in well cycle times. These efficiencies enhance profitability per barrel and support sustainable production growth.
- Access to Higher-Priced Natural Gas Markets: Matador is actively working to optimize its natural gas realizations. The company has secured 500 MMBtu per day of firm natural gas transportation on Energy Transfer's new Hugh Brinson pipeline. This improved market access to hubs like Henry Hub and potential LNG and AI-related demand centers is expected to provide significant additional revenue, with each $0.50 per MMBtu increase in realized natural gas price estimated to boost annual revenue by approximately $90 million.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Matador's Board of Directors authorized a $400 million share repurchase program in April 2025.
- In 2025, Matador repurchased 1.3 million shares for approximately $55 million, at a weighted average price of about $41 per share, under its $400 million program.
- The company repurchased 1.1 million shares for $44 million in the second quarter of 2025 at an average price of $40.37 per share.
Share Issuance
- Matador Resources reported no significant proceeds from the issuance of common stock for the full years 2025, 2024, and 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Matador pursued its "brick-by-brick" acquisition strategy, completing over 690 separate transactions for approximately 17,500 net acres in the Delaware Basin, with a total consideration of about $245 million.
- During the third quarter of 2025, Matador completed more than $125 million in transactions aimed at improving its land position and increasing working interests in key areas.
- Matador completed the Ameredev acquisition in 2024, which expanded its Delaware Basin acreage and significantly contributed to its asset base.
Capital Expenditures
- Matador's full-year 2025 capital expenditures for drilling, completing, and equipping wells (D/C/E CapEx) were $1.53 billion, within the expected range, and resulted in 129.4 net wells turned to sales.
- For 2026, Matador anticipates total capital expenditures to be $1.50 billion, representing an 11% reduction from 2025, with a focus on improving capital efficiency and reducing drilling and completion costs per lateral foot by 6% to approximately $795.
- Full-year 2024 D/C/E capital expenditures were $1.32 billion, aligning with the expected range of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion, while midstream capital expenditures were $238.7 million, including costs related to the Marlan Plant expansion.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04172026 | VAL | Valaris | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 15.2% | 15.2% | -0.9% |
| 03312026 | KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 16.3% | 16.3% | -0.7% |
| 03312026 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 10.8% | 10.8% | -10.8% |
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 54.5% | 54.5% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 25.4% | 25.4% | -6.5% |
| 03312023 | MTDR | Matador Resources | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.6% | 41.9% | -11.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.26 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.1 |
| Rev LTM | 15,108 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,116 |
| FCF LTM | 339 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 463 |
| CFO LTM | 6,424 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,611 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -17.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 54.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 59.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.1 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 14.1 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 36.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 32.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production | 3,178 | 2,551 | 2,875 | 1,543 | 773 |
| Midstream | 640 | 480 | 390 | 273 | 191 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Consolidations and Eliminations | -312 | -225 | -208 | -153 | -101 |
| Total | 3,505 | 2,807 | 3,058 | 1,663 | 862 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production | 1,302 | 1,134 | 1,698 | 748 | -562 |
| Midstream | 246 | 175 | 163 | 131 | 93 |
| Consolidations and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Corporate | -114 | -99 | -102 | -86 | -53 |
| Total | 1,435 | 1,209 | 1,759 | 793 | -521 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production | 9,117 | 6,386 | 4,023 | 3,325 | 2,783 |
| Midstream | 1,614 | 1,258 | 1,017 | 880 | 837 |
| Corporate | 119 | 83 | 515 | 58 | 68 |
| Consolidations and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 10,850 | 7,727 | 5,555 | 4,262 | 3,687 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $55.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/02/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.69 | $47.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.8% | 16.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.7% | 40.1% |
| Downside Capture | -0.56 | -0.18 |
| Upside Capture | -9.54 | 9.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -30.3% | 0.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.47 | -1.51 | -0.98 | -0.62 | 0.04 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | -2.60 | -2.92 | -2.21 | -1.43 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Down Beta | -6.65 | -1.02 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 1.66 |
| Up Capture | -83% | -31% | -8% | 0% | 11% | 25% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 38 | 70 | 132 | 412 |
| Down Capture | -569% | -209% | -229% | -182% | -75% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 26 | 55 | 120 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 43.5% | 40.7% | 0.99 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 42.9% | 20.1% | 1.67 | 76.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 0.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | -5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | 51.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | -1.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 10.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 18.0% | 47.4% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.5% | 26.1% | 0.74 | 82.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 40.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 61.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 28.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 17.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 10.8% | 65.0% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.5% | 29.5% | 0.36 | 79.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 46.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 56.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -3.8% | ||
| 2/24/2026 | -1.5% | 6.7% | 21.7% |
| 10/21/2025 | -9.6% | -10.7% | -5.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.2% | 2.8% | -8.6% |
| 2/18/2025 | -2.0% | -9.2% | -8.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | 0.9% | 0.3% | 18.1% |
| 7/23/2024 | 1.2% | -0.9% | -7.8% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 15.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.0% | 19.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -4.9% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.6% | 15.4% | 41.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -10.7% | -20.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Average Daily Oil Production | 0.12 Mil | 0.12 Mil | 0.12 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Average Daily Total Production | 0.21 Mil | 0.21 Mil | 0.21 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Capital Expenditures | 430.00 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Oil Production | 0.12 Mil | 0.12 Mil | 0.12 Mil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.12 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Oil Equivalent Production | 0.21 Mil | 0.21 Mil | 0.22 Mil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.21 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total operating expenses per BOE | 31 | 32 | 33 | ||||
| 2026 Current income taxes | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total Production | 0.20 Mil | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.21 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Oil Production | 0.12 Mil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.12 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Natural Gas Production | 520.00 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 519.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Oil Equivalent Production | 0.21 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 0.21 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total CapEx | 1.50 Bil | -10.4% | Lowered | Actual: 1.68 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Oil Production Growth | 3.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total CapEx Change | -0.1 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -0.1 for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehrman, Monika U | Direct | Buy | 3102026 | 56.29 | 267 | 15,029 | 2,333,952 | Form | |
| 2 | Foran, Joseph WM | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 49.78 | 468 | 23,297 | 115,589 | Form |
| 3 | MacAlik, Robert T | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Represents shares held of record by the reporting person's Individual Retirement Account | Buy | 11102025 | 38.25 | 1,500 | 57,375 | 1,340,242 | Form |
| 4 | Singleton, Van H II | CoPresident-Land, A&D,Planning | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 38.28 | 500 | 19,140 | 11,212,901 | Form |
| 5 | Foran, Joseph WM | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 38.14 | 1,000 | 38,140 | 910,287 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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