SkyWater Technology (SKYT)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $16.795 | Market Cap: $810.8 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
SkyWater Technology (SKYT)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $16.795Market Cap: $810.8 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 137x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 148% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 109% | |
| Key risksSKYT key risks include [1] a high dependence on U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 137x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 148% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 109% |
| Key risksSKYT key risks include [1] a high dependence on U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SKYT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. SkyWater Technology reported record-breaking third-quarter 2025 financial results. The company's Q3 2025 revenues were nearly $151 million, exceeding internal guidance and analyst expectations. Net income, bolstered by a bargain purchase gain from the Fab 25 acquisition, reached $144.0 million, or $2.95 per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income also saw a significant increase to $11.5 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, compared to $1.5 million (or $0.03 per diluted share) in the third quarter of 2024. Furthermore, SkyWater projected record-setting total revenue for Q4 2025, expected to range between $155 million and $165 million.
2. The successful integration and strong performance of the Fab 25 acquisition contributed significantly to revenue growth. SkyWater completed the acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25 in Austin, Texas, on June 30, 2025. This acquisition's operations in Q3 2025 surpassed initial forecasts, contributing nearly $87 million in wafer services revenue. The Fab 25 facility is anticipated to generate at least $300 million in annual revenue and produce robust adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow starting in the third quarter of 2025, thereby expanding U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SKYT Return | � | � | -56% | 35% | 43% | 14% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -24% | 44% | -31% | 15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SKYT Win Rate | � | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 62% | 40% | 65% | 33% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SKYT Max Drawdown | � | � | -72% | -31% | -41% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -39% | -5% | -35% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GFS, ON, INTC, MCHP, NXPI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SKYT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 653.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to QCOM, FSLR, SLAB, POWI, AMBQ
In The Past
SkyWater Technology's stock fell -86.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -86.7% loss requires a 653.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SKYT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SkyWater Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,489 |
| Op Inc LTM | 466 |
| FCF LTM | 960 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 793 |
| CFO LTM | 1,800 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,994 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 28.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 35.7 |
| P/E | 17.0 |
| P/CFO | 22.0 |
| Total Yield | 1.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2025 | 44.9% | 38.2% | 15.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 5.0% | 13.8% | 24.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | 15.3% | -2.4% | -12.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | -13.8% | -21.2% | -11.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | 47.6% | 61.2% | 41.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | -32.6% | -16.4% | -22.8% |
| 2/26/2024 | -2.2% | 6.7% | -8.0% |
| 11/8/2023 | 2.4% | 25.9% | 50.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 20.1% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -12.7% | -17.9% | -22.8% |
| Max Positive | 47.6% | 61.2% | 88.0% |
| Max Negative | -36.1% | -25.3% | -44.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8172022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5182022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |