JM Smucker (SJM)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $96.1 | Market Cap: $10.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
JM Smucker (SJM)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $96.1Market Cap: $10.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 9.5% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% Key risksSJM key risks include [1] significant margin pressure driven by coffee cost inflation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 9.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksSJM key risks include [1] significant margin pressure driven by coffee cost inflation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Fiscal Performance and Cautious Outlook. The J.M. Smucker Company delivered mixed financial results for its fiscal third quarter 2026 (reported February 26, 2026), with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.38 beating the consensus estimate of $2.27, and revenue of $2.34 billion exceeding analyst expectations by $0.02 billion. However, the company reported a negative net margin of -14.07% and a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -8.06, signaling underlying profitability concerns. Furthermore, the updated full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, ranging from $8.75 to $9.25, fell below the analyst consensus of $9.88, indicating ongoing operational pressures.
2. Ambivalent Analyst Sentiment. Analyst ratings for JM Smucker reflected a cautious stance, contributing to the stock's stability rather than significant upward movement. As of April 16, 2026, 31 Wall Street analysts had a "neutral" consensus with a median price target of $125.00, suggesting a potential 33.7% upside from its then-current trading price of $93.49. However, the overall analyst rating, while classified as a "Buy" (7.5/10), included 10 "Hold" ratings against 9 "Buy" and 0 "Sell" ratings, indicating mixed sentiment. Notable actions included Morgan Stanley downgrading the stock from "Overweight" to "Equalweight" on January 16, 2026, with a reduced price target from $115 to $105, citing valuation concerns. Conversely, Bank of America upgraded SJM to "Buy" with a $130 price target following the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference, citing easing Hostess acquisition risks and strong core brand performance.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.1% change in SJM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -2.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.84 | 95.74 | -1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,773 | 8,927 | 1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.1 | -2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | -1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | -9.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.4% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.1% change in SJM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.45 | 95.74 | -10.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,714 | 8,927 | 2.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.1 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | -10.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | -7.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.3% | 45.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.9% change in SJM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.82 | 95.74 | -15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,788 | 8,927 | 1.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.1 | -17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 107 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | -15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.4% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.1% change in SJM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.99 | 95.74 | -32.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,328 | 8,927 | 7.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 1.1 | -36.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 107 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | -32.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 8.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.2% | 50.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SJM Return | 21% | 21% | -18% | -10% | -8% | -1% | -0% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 12% | -13% | -5% | -20% | -8% | -25% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SJM Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 58% | 42% | 47% | 37% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SJM Max Drawdown | -4% | -9% | -30% | -13% | -13% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -9% | -23% | -10% | -23% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GIS, KHC, MDLZ, CAG, HRL. See SJM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SJM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,110 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 503 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GIS, KHC, MDLZ, CAG, HRL
In The Past
JM Smucker's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2023. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About JM Smucker (SJM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe JM Smucker (SJM):
- Like General Mills, but with a stronger focus on coffee, spreads, and pet food.
- Essentially, the company behind many of your pantry staples, similar to a Kraft Heinz, but specializing in popular brands like Jif peanut butter, Smucker's jams, and Folgers coffee.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Coffee Products: The company offers a variety of mainstream, premium, roast, ground, and single-serve coffee under brands like Folgers, Café Bustelo, and Dunkin' Donuts.
- Peanut Butter and Specialty Spreads: This category includes popular peanut butter (Jif) and specialty spreads, as well as fruit spreads (Smucker's).
- Pet Food and Snacks: JM Smucker manufactures a diverse range of dog and cat food and snacks, featuring brands such as Meow Mix, Kibbles ‘n Bits, Milk-Bone, and Rachael Ray Nutrish.
- Baking and Cooking Ingredients: Products like shortening and oils (Crisco), along with flour products (Robin Hood, Five Roses), are provided for baking and cooking needs.
- Frozen Handheld Products: This segment includes convenient frozen sandwiches like Smucker's Uncrustables, among other frozen handheld food items.
- Foodservice & Away From Home Products: JM Smucker supplies hot beverages, portion control items, and flour products to foodservice distributors and operators.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) sells its branded food and beverage products primarily to other companies, who then distribute or sell them to end consumers. Its major customers are large retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice distributors across various channels. Based on the company description, these include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT) - A leading food retailer, mass merchandiser, and operator of club stores (Sam's Club).
- The Kroger Co. (KR) - One of the largest traditional grocery retailers in the United States.
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - A major membership-only warehouse club operator.
- Target Corporation (TGT) - A prominent mass merchandiser.
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - A dominant online retailer and owner of natural foods stores (Whole Foods Market).
- Sysco Corporation (SYY) - A leading global foodservice distribution company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) management team includes the following key members:Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer, President and Chair of the Board
Mark Smucker is the fifth-generation leader of The J. M. Smucker Company, having joined the company in 1997. He assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in 2016, succeeding his father and uncle. Throughout his tenure at Smucker's, he has held various leadership positions, including President of the U.S. Consumer and Natural Foods divisions and the Coffee division. Under his leadership, the company has undertaken strategic expansions, including acquisitions in pet snacks, coffee, and baked goods, such as Hostess Brands. Before joining the family business, Mark worked as a middle school science teacher and in advertising. He holds a bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary and an MBA from the Thunderbird School of Global Management.
Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer | Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks
Tucker Marshall joined The J. M. Smucker Company in 2012 and was promoted to Chief Financial Officer in 2020. In February 2026, his role expanded to include Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks. Prior to his time at Smucker, Mr. Marshall gained leadership experience in investment banking and private equity with Bank of America and The Reserve Group. He was instrumental in establishing the company's Corporate Financial Planning & Analysis department. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Gettysburg College and an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Jill Penrose - Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff
Jill Penrose was promoted to Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff in February 2026. Previously, she served as the Chief People and Company Services Officer. She plays a key role as an executive officer within the company.
Robert D. Ferguson - Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away-from-Home
Robert D. Ferguson, also known as Rob, was elected as an executive officer and assumed the role of Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away-from-Home, effective February 9, 2026. He has extensive experience within the company.
Jeannette L. Knudsen - Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Jeannette L. Knudsen serves as the Chief Legal Officer and Secretary of The J. M. Smucker Company. She oversees the company's Legal, Regulatory, Compliance, and Risk Management functions. Ms. Knudsen previously held the title of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from its recent acquisitions, evolving consumer preferences, and volatile operating costs.- Hostess Brands Acquisition and Integration Challenges: The 2023 acquisition of Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion has become a significant risk. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has substantially underperformed expectations, leading to considerable impairment charges totaling nearly $1 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. Analysts have raised concerns about Smucker potentially overpaying for the acquisition and the ability to achieve the targeted $150 million in synergies. The company's leverage also increased due to the acquisition, leading to a negative outlook from S&P Global Ratings if debt reduction targets are not met.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences: A fundamental, long-term threat to Smucker's business is the persistent shift in consumer preferences toward fresh and less-processed foods. This trend challenges the company's core portfolio of packaged goods and has been a factor in the underperformance of the sweet baked goods segment. Changes in consumer behavior, influenced by factors like digital transformation, e-commerce, and increased interest in "better-for-you" options, require the company to continuously adapt its marketing and product offerings.
- Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: The company is exposed to significant risks from commodity price volatility and disruptions in its supply chain. Materially higher costs for ingredients, packaging, transportation, and labor, driven by inflationary pressures, have impacted profitability and necessitated price increases. The effectiveness of measures taken to mitigate these costs, such as derivatives and pricing actions, is crucial for maintaining financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of direct-to-consumer, fresh and human-grade pet food subscription services poses an emerging threat to Smucker's traditional pet food business. These services offer a distinct product and delivery model that appeals to a growing segment of pet owners seeking alternatives to conventional shelf-stable pet food products.AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for J. M. Smucker's main products and services are sizable, with varying regional strengths:
-
Pet Food: The global pet food market was valued at approximately USD 136.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 197.5 billion by 2034. North America held over 42.5% of the global pet food market share in 2025. The U.S. pet food market alone was valued at USD 41.59 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 68.33 billion by 2035.
-
Peanut Butter: The global peanut butter market was valued at USD 7.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 15.50 billion by 2034. North America held the largest market share in the global peanut butter industry. In the U.S., the peanut butter industry is a USD 2 billion market. The U.S. peanut butter market was valued at USD 1.7 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 2.4 billion by 2034.
-
Coffee: The global coffee market was valued at USD 176.55 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 238.99 billion by 2031. The U.S. coffee market was valued at USD 23.76 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 31.05 billion by 2031. The U.S. branded coffee shop market alone was valued at USD 58.5 billion in sales in October 2025 and is expected to reach USD 82.4 billion by September 2030.
-
Frozen Sandwiches (including Frozen Breakfast Entrees/Sandwiches): The global frozen sandwich market is forecast to reach USD 1597.2 million by 2033. North America currently leads this market. More specifically, the global frozen breakfast entrees/sandwiches market size was estimated at USD 13,750.56 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 26,500.78 million by 2032. North America is the fastest-growing region, and the United States dominates this market with a 19.6% share.
-
Fruit Spreads: The global fruit spreads market is estimated to be valued at over USD 15 billion, with projections indicating it will reach an estimated USD 20.15 billion by 2025. North America is a key driver of market growth, projected to account for over 35% of global sales.
-
Shortening and Oils (Shortening Fats): The global shortening fats market size was valued at USD 5.10 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 7.83 billion by 2034. The Asia Pacific region dominated the shortening market with an estimated market share of 42% in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) anticipates future revenue growth over the next two to three years will be driven by several strategic initiatives focusing on its key brands and recent acquisitions. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for JM Smucker:- Growth of the Uncrustables Brand: The Uncrustables brand is a significant growth engine for Smucker, with annual net sales projected to exceed $1 billion. Growth is expected to be fueled by national advertising campaigns, expanded distribution into new channels such as convenience and away-from-home, and continuous product innovation, including new offerings like peanut butter and raspberry spread sandwiches.
- Expansion and Innovation in the Pet Food and Snacks Category: The Company's pet segment, particularly through its Milk-Bone and Meow Mix brands, is a key focus for growth, with anticipated net sales growth of 3% to 4% for the segment in fiscal year 2026. Strategies include maximizing "everyday treating," engaging new pet owners, and expanding consumption through impulse opportunities and product innovation.
- Strategic Pricing and Brand Building in the Coffee Segment: Smucker's U.S. Retail Coffee segment, especially led by the Café Bustelo brand, is expected to drive revenue through strategic pricing actions and brand-building initiatives. Café Bustelo is a fast-growing brand, with plans to become a top-four brand in the at-home coffee category through increased brand awareness, household penetration, and new product introductions like different roast profiles and a ready-to-drink format.
- Integration and Stabilization of the Hostess Brands Acquisition: The 2024 acquisition of Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion positions Smucker as a leader in the U.S. sweet baked goods category. Future revenue growth is anticipated from strengthening the Hostess portfolio, which includes prioritizing high-return sub-brands like Donettes and implementing SKU rationalization, as well as realizing approximately $150 million in annual cost synergies by the end of fiscal 2027. The company is focused on stabilizing the brand's performance and returning it to growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- The J. M. Smucker Company increased its share buyback authorization by 5 million common shares in October 2021, resulting in approximately 7.8 million common shares available for repurchase under authorizations by its Board of Directors.
- In fiscal year 2024, the company repurchased 2.4 million shares for $362.8 million, with 1.1 million shares remaining under its authorization.
- A long-running share repurchase program totaling approximately $4.31 billion was completed as of December 2025.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for J. M. Smucker increased by 2.11% in fiscal year 2025 to 0.106 billion from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- The J. M. Smucker Company acquired Hostess Brands, Inc., with the acquisition contributing to topline growth in fiscal year 2025 and achieving approximately $75 million in cost synergies in FY2025.
- Divestitures in early 2021 included the Natural Balance premium pet food business and the Crisco oils and shortening business, aimed at focusing resources on pet food, snacking, and coffee categories.
- Further divestitures include the Voortman business and certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, expected to close during the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, to support focused resource allocation and reduce manufacturing costs.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal years ending April 2021 to 2025 averaged $436.4 million, peaking at $586.5 million in April 2024.
- For fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures were $394 million, representing 4.5% of net sales, a decrease from the prior year.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are approximately $325.0 million, with a primary focus on growth initiatives such as the new Uncrustables® sandwiches manufacturing facility, and operational investments in supply chain automation and predictive technologies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to SJM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| 03202026 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| 03202026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| 03202026 | MKC | McCormick | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
| 06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 1.2% | -1.8% |
| 12312018 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.5% | 14.9% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| Rev LTM | 15,461 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,121 |
| FCF LTM | 1,377 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,768 |
| CFO LTM | 1,824 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,318 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -17.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 7.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.6 |
| P/E | 1.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -37.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -57.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 2,704 | 2,735 | 2,497 | 2,375 | 2,150 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 1,823 | 3,038 | 2,764 | 2,844 | 2,870 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 1,816 | 1,631 | 1,707 | 1,836 | 1,732 |
| International and Away From Home | 1,199 | 1,125 | 1,030 | 948 | 1,050 |
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 637 | 0 | |||
| Total | 8,179 | 8,529 | 7,999 | 8,003 | 7,801 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 759 | 738 | 737 | 769 | 691 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 434 | 353 | 424 | 472 | 390 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 402 | 495 | 396 | 487 | 553 |
| International and Away From Home | 208 | 143 | 142 | 124 | 173 |
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 138 | 0 | |||
| Change in net cumulative unallocated derivative gains and losses | 7 | -21 | -23 | 94 | 20 |
| Cost of products sold - special project costs | -3 | -6 | -20 | -3 | 0 |
| Gain (loss) on divestitures - net | -13 | -1,018 | 10 | 25 | 0 |
| Other special project costs | -130 | -5 | -8 | -21 | -16 |
| Amortization | -191 | -207 | -224 | -233 | -236 |
| Corporate administrative expenses | -306 | -313 | -259 | -324 | -298 |
| Other intangible assets impairment charges | 0 | -150 | -4 | -52 | |
| Total | 1,306 | 157 | 1,024 | 1,387 | 1,223 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 6,267 | 0 | |||
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 4,826 | 4,809 | 4,892 | 4,794 | 4,787 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 4,784 | 4,994 | 7,167 | 7,481 | 7,731 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 3,257 | 2,973 | 2,692 | 2,553 | 2,873 |
| International and Away From Home | 990 | 978 | 974 | 1,014 | 1,048 |
| Unallocated | 150 | 1,237 | 330 | 442 | 530 |
| Total | 20,274 | 14,991 | 16,055 | 16,284 | 16,970 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $95.74 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/31/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $102.69 | $103.33 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.8% | -7.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.6% | 29.6% |
| Downside Capture | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| Upside Capture | -91.70 | -27.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -10.0% | 0.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.12 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.14 | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| Up Beta | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.10 | -0.28 | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| Down Beta | -0.13 | 0.94 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| Up Capture | -144% | -119% | -63% | -32% | -7% | -2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 4 | 17 | 28 | 62 | 122 | 353 |
| Down Capture | 120% | -42% | -42% | -15% | 9% | 18% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 18 | 25 | 35 | 63 | 129 | 395 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | -14.5% | 29.5% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 2.2% | 12.5% | -0.10 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.7% | 12.7% | 1.52 | 0.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.4% | 27.5% | 1.25 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.4% | 16.2% | 1.25 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.7% | -0.14 | -0.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | -2.5% | 23.6% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 13.2% | 0.25 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 14.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.1% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 29.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | -0.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | 0.2% | 24.2% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.1% | 14.7% | 0.36 | 54.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 22.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 30.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 0.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 8.8% | 7.6% | -10.8% |
| 11/25/2025 | -3.7% | -3.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 6/10/2025 | -15.6% | -14.7% | -6.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.0% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | 5.7% | 3.2% | -2.4% |
| 8/28/2024 | -4.9% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
| 6/6/2024 | 4.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 17 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 1.4% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.7% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 8.1% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -14.7% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/16/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 3.5% | 3.75% | 4.0% | -6.2% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 EPS | 8.75 | 9 | 9.25 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 975.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 325.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted effective income tax rate | 24.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 23.8% for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 EPS | 8.75 | 9 | 9.25 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 975.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 325.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Effective Income Tax Rate | 23.8% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.8% for 2026 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall, Tucker H | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 108.11 | 11,139 | 1,204,220 | 3,661,037 | Form |
| 2 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Direct | Sell | 9252025 | 110.00 | 6,500 | 715,000 | 8,447,120 | Form |
| 3 | Amin, Tarang | Direct | Buy | 6122025 | 96.09 | 1,050 | 100,894 | 367,544 | Form | |
| 4 | Penrose, Jill R | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3312025 | 116.26 | 5,117 | 594,902 | 1,022,390 | Form |
| 5 | Knudsen, Jeannette L | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3242025 | 110.55 | 2,700 | 298,485 | 1,617,015 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.