Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.07 | Market Cap: $29.7 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $25.07Market Cap: $29.7 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The specified period for Kraft Heinz (KHC) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual historical data for this exact timeframe, including a specific -9.1% stock movement and its causes, is not available. However, based on available future-dated earnings reports and news, here are key points that could influence Kraft Heinz's stock performance around that time, reflecting analysts' forward-looking statements and company outlooks for late 2025: 1. 1. Weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 Results and Lowered Full-Year Guidance: Kraft Heinz reported mixed Q3 2025 results on October 29, 2025. While adjusted EPS beat consensus estimates, net sales of $6.24 billion were slightly below expectations and represented a 2.3% year-over-year decline. The company also lowered its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.50-$2.57 (from $2.51-$2.67) and organic net sales guidance to a decline of 3.0%-3.5% (from 1.5%-3.5%). These revised outlooks contributed to negative market sentiment. 2. 2. Margin and Profit Pressure: The Q3 2025 results indicated significant margin compression and profit pressure. Adjusted Gross Profit Margin fell 200 basis points year-over-year to 32.3%, and Adjusted Operating Income declined 16.9% year-over-year to $1.11 billion. This was attributed to inflationary pressures (especially in meats and coffee), unfavorable mix, and higher advertising and consumer (A&C) spending, partially offset by efficiencies. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KHC Return | 14% | 8% | 18% | -5% | -13% | -14% | 3% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 10% | 15% | -7% | -5% | -5% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KHC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 44% | 46% | 27% | 31% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KHC Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -5% | -22% | -15% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -7% | -5% | -15% | -7% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDLZ, CPB, BRBF, MEHA, HSY. See KHC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KHC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -74.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 285.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to MDLZ, CPB, BRBF, MEHA, HSY
In The Past
Kraft Heinz's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/13/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.5% | 28.3% | -2.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.5% | 28.3% | -2.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kraft Heinz
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 20,126 | ||||
| International Developed Markets | 3,623 | ||||
| Emerging Markets | 2,891 | ||||
| Ambient foods | 3,047 | 2,896 | 2,954 | 2,475 | |
| Cheese and dairy | 3,976 | 4,922 | 5,131 | 4,890 | |
| Coffee | 903 | 847 | 1,062 | 1,271 | |
| Condiments and sauces | 8,241 | 7,302 | 6,813 | 6,406 | |
| Desserts, toppings and baking | 1,195 | 1,157 | 1,121 | 1,032 | |
| Frozen and chilled foods | 2,922 | 2,698 | 2,599 | 2,371 | |
| Infant and nutrition | 411 | 441 | 433 | 512 | |
| Meats and seafood | 2,733 | 2,613 | 2,515 | 2,406 | |
| Nuts and salted snacks | 0 | 464 | 1,047 | 966 | |
| Other | 1,058 | 916 | 855 | 1,144 | |
| Refreshment beverages | 1,999 | 1,786 | 1,655 | 1,504 | |
| Total | 26,640 | 26,485 | 26,042 | 26,185 | 24,977 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 5,050 | ||||
| International Developed Markets | 522 | ||||
| Emerging Markets | 376 | ||||
| Unrealized gains/(losses) on commodity hedges | -1 | ||||
| Certain non-ordinary course legal and regulatory matters | -2 | ||||
| Restructuring activities | -60 | ||||
| General corporate expenses | -651 | ||||
| Impairment losses | -662 | ||||
| Total | 4,572 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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