Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $24.77 | Market Cap: $29.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Kraft Heinz (KHC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $24.77Market Cap: $29.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksKHC key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its traditional packaged food brands amid intense competition and [2] a substantial debt load that restricts its financial flexibility. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksKHC key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its traditional packaged food brands amid intense competition and [2] a substantial debt load that restricts its financial flexibility. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide key points for Kraft Heinz (KHC) stock movement for the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, as I cannot access information for this time frame.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KHC Return | 14% | 8% | 18% | -5% | -13% | -15% | 2% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KHC Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KHC Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -5% | -22% | -15% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDLZ, CPB, BRBF, MEHA, HSY. See KHC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KHC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -74.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 285.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to MDLZ, CPB, BRBF, MEHA, HSY
In The Past
Kraft Heinz's stock fell -30.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/13/2022. A -30.4% loss requires a 43.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.5% | 28.3% | -2.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.5% | 28.3% | -2.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kraft Heinz
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| Rev LTM | 10,727 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,725 |
| FCF LTM | 1,133 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,539 |
| CFO LTM | 1,638 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,193 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 19.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 20,126 | ||||
| International Developed Markets | 3,623 | ||||
| Emerging Markets | 2,891 | ||||
| Ambient foods | 3,047 | 2,896 | 2,954 | 2,475 | |
| Cheese and dairy | 3,976 | 4,922 | 5,131 | 4,890 | |
| Coffee | 903 | 847 | 1,062 | 1,271 | |
| Condiments and sauces | 8,241 | 7,302 | 6,813 | 6,406 | |
| Desserts, toppings and baking | 1,195 | 1,157 | 1,121 | 1,032 | |
| Frozen and chilled foods | 2,922 | 2,698 | 2,599 | 2,371 | |
| Infant and nutrition | 411 | 441 | 433 | 512 | |
| Meats and seafood | 2,733 | 2,613 | 2,515 | 2,406 | |
| Nuts and salted snacks | 0 | 464 | 1,047 | 966 | |
| Other | 1,058 | 916 | 855 | 1,144 | |
| Refreshment beverages | 1,999 | 1,786 | 1,655 | 1,504 | |
| Total | 26,640 | 26,485 | 26,042 | 26,185 | 24,977 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 5,050 | ||||
| International Developed Markets | 522 | ||||
| Emerging Markets | 376 | ||||
| Unrealized gains/(losses) on commodity hedges | -1 | ||||
| Certain non-ordinary course legal and regulatory matters | -2 | ||||
| Restructuring activities | -60 | ||||
| General corporate expenses | -651 | ||||
| Impairment losses | -662 | ||||
| Total | 4,572 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.5% | -5.3% | 0.3% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.2% | -5.3% | -2.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | 0.2% | -0.8% | -7.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -3.2% | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -3.1% | -3.7% | -8.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -6.0% | -7.3% | -10.3% |
| 2/14/2024 | -5.5% | 0.7% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.9% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 5.6% | 15.6% | 13.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -8.7% | -18.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |