Tearsheet

Selective Insurance (SIGI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $84.18 | Market Cap: $5.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Selective Insurance (SIGI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $84.18
Market Cap: $5.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
Key risks
SIGI key risks include [1] its history of significant adverse casualty reserve development, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71%
5 Key risks
SIGI key risks include [1] its history of significant adverse casualty reserve development, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SIGI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Q3 2025 Financial Results and Management Actions. Selective Insurance's third-quarter 2025 earnings, released on October 22, 2025, presented a mixed picture. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75 missed the consensus estimate of $1.99, and the combined ratio of 98.6% was higher than anticipated, the company reported strong revenue growth, up 9.1% over the prior year to $1.35 billion. The initial stock drop of 5.2% on October 23, 2025, following the earnings miss, was likely countered by the robust revenue performance and subsequent strategic actions.

2. Dividend Increase and Share Repurchase Program. On October 23, 2025, Selective Insurance announced a 13% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to 43 cents per share. Concurrently, the company authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $200 million. These actions demonstrated the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders and signaled financial strength, which can significantly bolster investor confidence and contribute to stock appreciation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SIGI Return4%24%10%14%-5%-9%40%
Peers Return-6%26%14%2%33%14%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SIGI Win Rate75%67%50%58%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%53%70%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SIGI Max Drawdown-36%-5%-7%0%-17%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-5%-10%-14%0%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: THG, CINF, WRB, RLI, HIG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSIGIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven161 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven297 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven24.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven585 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven185.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,198 days1,480 days

Compare to VOYA, THG, FAF, RLI, PGR


In The Past

Selective Insurance's stock fell -17.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -17.4% loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Selective Insurance (SIGI)

Better Bets than Selective Insurance (SIGI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SIGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Selective Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SIGITHGCINFWRBRLIHIGMedian
NameSelectiv.Hanover .Cincinna.WR Berkl.RLI Hartford. 
Mkt Price84.17184.58167.1169.1166.05138.36111.27
Mkt Cap5.16.626.127.56.138.916.3
Rev LTM5,2286,48312,07814,6451,85627,6929,281
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1,1531,0042,7913,3305815,8651,972
FCF 3Y Avg9827112,4813,2544784,9221,731
CFO LTM1,1891,0132,8073,3985865,9881,998
CFO 3Y Avg1,0117222,4993,3304835,1091,755

Growth & Margins

SIGITHGCINFWRBRLIHIGMedian
NameSelectiv.Hanover .Cincinna.WR Berkl.RLI Hartford. 
Rev Chg LTM10.9%5.2%-0.6%11.3%5.2%6.9%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.6%6.9%22.7%10.6%4.7%8.6%9.6%
Rev Chg Q9.3%6.2%12.2%12.0%8.4%6.4%8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%1.5%3.5%2.8%2.2%1.6%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM22.7%15.6%23.2%23.2%31.6%21.6%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.5%11.6%22.0%25.2%28.2%19.6%21.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%15.5%23.1%22.7%31.3%21.2%22.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.9%11.4%21.9%24.7%27.8%18.9%21.4%

Valuation

SIGITHGCINFWRBRLIHIGMedian
NameSelectiv.Hanover .Cincinna.WR Berkl.RLI Hartford. 
Mkt Cap5.16.626.127.56.138.916.3
P/S0.91.02.02.13.21.41.7
P/EBIT8.87.89.211.913.58.19.0
P/E12.110.311.616.017.010.511.9
P/CFO4.16.48.89.010.26.37.6
Total Yield10.1%11.7%10.7%7.9%9.9%11.1%10.4%
Dividend Yield1.8%2.0%2.1%1.7%4.0%1.6%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.9%13.2%12.1%14.5%7.4%15.8%13.9%
D/E0.20.20.00.10.00.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.6-0.1-0.8-0.3-0.5-0.4

Returns

SIGITHGCINFWRBRLIHIGMedian
NameSelectiv.Hanover .Cincinna.WR Berkl.RLI Hartford. 
1M Rtn8.2%3.9%3.5%-8.9%8.2%5.2%4.6%
3M Rtn9.3%6.1%8.2%-3.8%4.5%6.4%6.2%
6M Rtn-0.2%11.7%16.0%-2.6%-4.2%11.7%5.8%
12M Rtn-10.0%23.9%15.7%20.6%-17.5%29.0%18.1%
3Y Rtn1.9%48.4%75.7%56.7%14.5%97.6%52.5%
1M Excs Rtn7.5%3.2%2.8%-9.7%7.5%4.5%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn6.7%4.3%5.8%-5.2%2.7%4.4%4.4%
6M Excs Rtn-12.6%-0.7%3.6%-15.0%-16.6%-0.7%-6.6%
12M Excs Rtn-22.4%11.2%1.3%6.8%-30.5%14.5%4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-70.6%-23.9%-0.1%-16.1%-55.6%27.1%-20.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Standard Commercial Lines3,0892,7492,4602,1592,061
Excess and surplus (E&S) Lines391334280239240
Investments385173344223237
Standard Personal Lines367301295301309
Total4,2323,5583,3792,9222,846


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,511,861
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-15.6%
Average Daily Volume420,153
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.60
Basic Shares Quantity60,585,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-5.7%-8.0%-4.7%
7/23/2025-17.0%-12.2%-13.2%
4/23/2025-1.8%-4.0%-4.4%
1/29/2025-12.6%-9.0%-8.1%
10/21/2024-3.8%-5.6%0.5%
7/18/2024-18.2%-11.4%-11.0%
5/1/2024-6.4%-3.2%-4.2%
1/31/2024-7.7%-7.5%-0.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71012
# Negative181513
Median Positive2.1%2.0%4.7%
Median Negative-3.8%-5.6%-4.7%
Max Positive3.4%4.5%21.2%
Max Negative-18.2%-12.2%-13.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021