Tearsheet

Selective Insurance (SIGI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.32 | Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Selective Insurance (SIGI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.32
Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SIGI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Selective Insurance (SIGI) experienced movement in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with a notable daily fluctuation of around 0.3% on December 2, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors impacting the company's financial performance and market sentiment.

1. Q3 2025 Mixed Earnings Report: Selective Insurance reported its third-quarter 2025 results on October 22-23, 2025, with a mixed outcome. While the company's revenue of $1.35 billion (or $1.36 billion) surpassed consensus estimates, its operating income of $1.75 per share missed Zacks Consensus Estimates by 4.9%, despite a 25% year-over-year increase. The report highlighted solid underwriting income and significantly lower catastrophe losses, but also revealed unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development and higher current year casualty loss costs, which contributed to an elevated combined ratio.

2. Dividend Increase and Share Repurchase Program: On October 22, 2025, the company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.43 per common share, effective for the upcoming payment. Additionally, Selective Insurance authorized a new $200 million share repurchase program, replacing a prior program and effective October 27, 2025. These actions signal a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which can positively influence investor confidence and stock valuation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SIGI Return4%24%10%14%-5%-14%32%
Peers Return7%21%4%14%21%2%89%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SIGI Win Rate75%67%50%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%57%47%55%63%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SIGI Max Drawdown-36%-5%-7%0%-17%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-6%-14%-8%-5%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VOYA, FAF, THG, RLI, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSIGIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven161 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven297 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven24.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven585 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven185.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2198 days1480 days

Compare to VOYA, FAF, THG, RLI, PGR


In The Past

Selective Insurance's stock fell -17.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -17.4% loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Selective Insurance (SIGI)

Better Bets than Selective Insurance (SIGI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SIGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Selective Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SIGIVOYAFAFTHGRLIPGRMedian
NameSelectiv.Voya Fin.First Am.Hanover .RLI Progress. 
Mkt Price78.0570.7764.77179.9862.65227.1874.41
Mkt Cap4.76.86.76.45.8133.26.6
Rev LTM5,2287,9047,0806,4831,85682,3766,782
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1,1533767041,00458116,472854
FCF 3Y Avg98270946171147812,350710
CFO LTM1,1893769061,01358616,800960
CFO 3Y Avg1,01170969372248312,634716

Growth & Margins

SIGIVOYAFAFTHGRLIPGRMedian
NameSelectiv.Voya Fin.First Am.Hanover .RLI Progress. 
Rev Chg LTM10.9%2.5%20.7%5.2%5.2%21.5%8.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.6%11.5%-3.3%6.9%4.7%20.0%9.2%
Rev Chg Q9.3%7.5%40.7%6.2%8.4%21.3%8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%1.9%8.8%1.5%2.2%4.9%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM22.7%4.8%12.8%15.6%31.6%20.4%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.5%9.4%10.7%11.6%28.2%18.0%14.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%4.8%9.9%15.5%31.3%20.0%17.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.9%9.4%7.0%11.4%27.8%17.6%14.5%

Valuation

SIGIVOYAFAFTHGRLIPGRMedian
NameSelectiv.Voya Fin.First Am.Hanover .RLI Progress. 
Mkt Cap4.76.86.76.45.8133.26.6
P/S0.90.90.91.03.21.91.0
P/EBIT8.86.88.37.813.511.78.6
P/E12.111.713.710.317.015.012.9
P/CFO4.119.17.36.410.29.38.3
Total Yield10.1%10.9%10.7%11.7%9.9%8.5%10.4%
Dividend Yield1.8%2.4%3.4%2.0%4.0%1.8%2.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.9%9.5%7.2%13.2%7.4%10.3%9.9%
D/E0.20.40.40.20.00.00.2
Net D/E-0.1-3.5-0.0-0.6-0.3-0.0-0.2

Returns

SIGIVOYAFAFTHGRLIPGRMedian
NameSelectiv.Voya Fin.First Am.Hanover .RLI Progress. 
1M Rtn6.0%-2.6%4.2%5.4%10.5%11.5%5.7%
3M Rtn-0.9%-5.6%0.2%1.9%-3.5%-7.9%-2.2%
6M Rtn-9.9%9.2%18.2%4.9%-13.6%-19.4%-2.5%
12M Rtn-20.0%-12.1%-3.7%12.6%-24.8%-11.7%-11.9%
3Y Rtn-14.0%17.2%35.7%32.8%4.4%76.6%25.0%
1M Excs Rtn6.1%-2.6%4.3%5.4%10.6%11.6%5.7%
3M Excs Rtn-8.5%-13.6%-6.8%-5.6%-9.7%-14.1%-9.1%
6M Excs Rtn-24.6%-5.5%3.4%-9.8%-28.3%-34.1%-17.2%
12M Excs Rtn-35.6%-26.1%-18.0%-2.1%-39.4%-27.3%-26.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-87.3%-53.8%-36.2%-39.1%-62.4%7.2%-46.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Standard Commercial Lines3,0892,7492,4602,1592,061
Excess and surplus (E&S) Lines391334280239240
Investments385173344223237
Standard Personal Lines367301295301309
Total4,2323,5583,3792,9222,846


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,790,734
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202524.4%
Average Daily Volume388,909
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.60
Basic Shares Quantity60,585,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021