Selective Insurance (SIGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.32 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Selective Insurance (SIGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.32Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SIGI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Selective Insurance (SIGI) experienced movement in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with a notable daily fluctuation of around 0.3% on December 2, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors impacting the company's financial performance and market sentiment.
1. Q3 2025 Mixed Earnings Report: Selective Insurance reported its third-quarter 2025 results on October 22-23, 2025, with a mixed outcome. While the company's revenue of $1.35 billion (or $1.36 billion) surpassed consensus estimates, its operating income of $1.75 per share missed Zacks Consensus Estimates by 4.9%, despite a 25% year-over-year increase. The report highlighted solid underwriting income and significantly lower catastrophe losses, but also revealed unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development and higher current year casualty loss costs, which contributed to an elevated combined ratio.
2. Dividend Increase and Share Repurchase Program: On October 22, 2025, the company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.43 per common share, effective for the upcoming payment. Additionally, Selective Insurance authorized a new $200 million share repurchase program, replacing a prior program and effective October 27, 2025. These actions signal a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which can positively influence investor confidence and stock valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIGI Return | 4% | 24% | 10% | 14% | -5% | -14% | 32% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 21% | 4% | 14% | 21% | 2% | 89% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIGI Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 47% | 55% | 63% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIGI Max Drawdown | -36% | -5% | -7% | 0% | -17% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -6% | -14% | -8% | -5% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VOYA, FAF, THG, RLI, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 161 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 297 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 585 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 185.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2198 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VOYA, FAF, THG, RLI, PGR
In The Past
Selective Insurance's stock fell -17.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -17.4% loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Selective Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 74.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,782 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 854 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 710 |
| CFO LTM | 960 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 716 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 25.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |