Sidus Space (SIDU)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.7798 | Market Cap: $14.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Sidus Space (SIDU)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.7798Market Cap: $14.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -55% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -20 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -468% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.6x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -384%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -569% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 249% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -55% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.8 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -20 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -468% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.6x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -384%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -569% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 249% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SIDU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting factors that contributed to a significant decline in Sidus Space (SIDU) stock during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Poor Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Sidus Space reported its Third Quarter 2025 financial results on November 14, 2025, indicating a 31% decrease in revenue compared to Q3 2024, a gross loss of ($1.3 million), and a net loss of $6 million, which was an increase from $3.9 million in the prior year. This financial performance likely signaled a lack of profitability and revenue challenges to investors.
2. Increased Operational Costs and Widening Losses: The company experienced a significant rise in its cost of revenue by 42% in Q3 2025, primarily due to increased satellite and software depreciation, as well as higher material and labor costs. Additionally, selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by $3.1 million, driven by strategic headcount additions and expanded employee benefits, further contributing to the widening net loss.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIDU Return | - | - | -90% | -92% | -44% | -87% | -100% |
| Peers Return | -11% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIDU Win Rate | - | 25% | 17% | 33% | 40% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIDU Max Drawdown | - | - | -91% | -97% | -87% | -86% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIDU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33855.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, BETA, DFSC, PEW
In The Past
Sidus Space's stock fell -99.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/14/2021. A -99.7% loss requires a 33855.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Sidus Space Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIDU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sidus Space
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 52 |
| Op Inc LTM | -14 |
| FCF LTM | -16 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 35.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -326.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -188.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -290.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -206.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -436.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | -262.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | -34.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -80.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -20.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -33.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 84.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 183.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -20.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -40.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 72.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 160.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5202024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4052022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 12312020 | 12142021 | 424B4 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
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