BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.41 | Market Cap: $612.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.41Market Cap: $612.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 214% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 214% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BKSY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It appears that the search results include information for the requested period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. I can extract key points from these results regarding BlackSky Technology's stock movement. I need to focus on why the stock moved by 0.7% (even though the search results show more significant fluctuations like a 4.18% gain on Dec 3, 2025, or a 13.96% drop on Nov 13, 2025). The request asks to explain *why* it moved by 0.7%, implying this is a net movement over the entire period, or a specific movement that needs explanation. Given the results show fluctuations, I should highlight key events that would generally influence stock price movements within that period. I will prioritize information about contract wins, earnings reports, analyst ratings, and significant operational updates as these are common drivers of stock price changes. I need to limit to 5 key points and format them as requested. Let's review the timeline within the requested period: * **August 2025:** * August 7, 2025: BlackSky reported Q2 2025 results. Revenue was $22.2 million (down from Q2 2024), imagery and software analytical services revenue was up, but professional and engineering services revenue was down. Net loss increased to $41.2 million, primarily due to derivative losses. The company maintained its full-year 2025 outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite near-term volatility from the U.S. government budget process. BlackSky's stock dropped 13.99% in premarket trading on August 7, 2025. * August 9, 2025: Wall Street Zen downgraded BlackSky Technology from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" rating. * **September 2025:** * September 10, 2025: CEO Brian E. O'Toole sold 33,292 shares for approximately $580,945.40. This is less than $5 million, so it should not be included as per the instructions unless other factors warrant it. * **October 2025:** * October 8, 2025: Weiss Ratings restated a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BlackSky Technology. * October 10, 2025: HC Wainwright & Co. boosted their price target from $28.00 to $42.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating. * **November 2025:** * November 4, 2025: BlackSky announced a multi-year contract exceeding $30 million to provide Gen-3 tactical ISR services to a strategic international defense customer. BlackSky Technology shares were down 2.84% in premarket trading on this day. * November 6, 2025: BlackSky reported Q3 2025 results. Total revenue was $19.6 million (below analyst estimates of $28.67 million), and net loss was $15.3 million. However, the company highlighted over $60 million in new contract awards, with 91% from international contracts, and a strengthened cash balance. EPS of -$0.35 beat analyst estimates of -$0.37. The stock dropped 11.45% on November 6, 2025. * November 14, 2025: An article noted that despite the recent $30 million contract, BlackSky's shares had been volatile, with a sharp 54.34% drop in the past month, amid pressure from slowing revenue growth and widening losses. * **December 2025:** * December 3, 2025: BlackSky Technology stock price gained 4.18%, rising from $16.97 to $17.68. The question is about a 0.7% movement for the period. This is a very small net movement, implying either a lack of significant net change, or that the user is asking for general drivers of movement within the period that could lead to such a net change. Given the significant fluctuations mentioned in the search results (e.g., -13.99% on Aug 7, -11.45% on Nov 6, +4.18% on Dec 3), a 0.7% net change would be a result of many opposing forces. I should highlight the most impactful events that would drive stock movements, which would collectively result in the net change. Here are the key points for the specified period: 1. BlackSky Technology announced its Q2 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, which included a reported net loss of $41.2 million, primarily due to derivative losses, and a slight decrease in total revenue compared to the previous year. 2. Analyst sentiment saw mixed changes with Wall Street Zen downgrading BlackSky from "hold" to "strong sell" on August 9, 2025, and Weiss Ratings reaffirming a "sell" rating on October 8, 2025, while HC Wainwright & Co. raised its price target to $42.00 with a "buy" rating on October 10, 2025. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKSY Return | 7% | -57% | -66% | -9% | -4% | 57% | -78% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 25% | 4% | 33% | 23% | -11% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKSY Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 45% | 67% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKSY Max Drawdown | -7% | -57% | -76% | -29% | -64% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -11% | -17% | -7% | -3% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1288.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
Compare to TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS
In The Past
BlackSky Technology's stock fell -92.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -92.8% loss requires a 1288.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| BlackSky Technology Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BKSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BlackSky Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,011 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,869 |
| FCF LTM | 1,284 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,081 |
| CFO LTM | 1,653 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,429 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| P/EBIT | 20.7 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 27.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |