BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $21.18 | Market Cap: $813.8 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
Market Price (10/9/2026): $21.18Market Cap: $813.8 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -47 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -64% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% Key risksBKSY key risks include [1] a history of unprofitability and potential for shareholder dilution, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -47 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -64% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Key risksBKSY key risks include [1] a history of unprofitability and potential for shareholder dilution, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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BlackSky Technology (BKSY) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Reduced Full-Year Revenue Guidance. BlackSky Technology reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.54 for fiscal Q2 2026 on August 5, 2026, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.38. This earnings miss was compounded by the company lowering its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $105.0 million to $130.0 million, a reduction from the previously expected range of $120.0 million to $145.0 million, due to anticipated government budget uncertainties and contract timing volatility. This news led to a notable decline in the stock's performance.
2. Analyst Downgrade. Just prior to the start of the specified period, on June 1, 2026, Jefferies downgraded BlackSky Technology's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" with a price target of $50, contributing to negative market sentiment.
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BlackSky Technology (BKSY) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Reduced Full-Year Revenue Guidance. BlackSky Technology reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.54 for fiscal Q2 2026 on August 5, 2026, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.38. This earnings miss was compounded by the company lowering its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $105.0 million to $130.0 million, a reduction from the previously expected range of $120.0 million to $145.0 million, due to anticipated government budget uncertainties and contract timing volatility. This news led to a notable decline in the stock's performance.
2. Analyst Downgrade. Just prior to the start of the specified period, on June 1, 2026, Jefferies downgraded BlackSky Technology's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" with a price target of $50, contributing to negative market sentiment.
3. Lack of Significant Positive Catalysts to Counter Negative Sentiment. Despite announcements of new contracts, such as a six-figure pilot contract with an international intelligence customer on October 8, 2026, the stock continued to slide. The market's subdued reaction to these developments suggests that they were not viewed as substantial enough to outweigh earlier negative news and concerns, indicating a prevailing lack of strong positive catalysts to drive the stock higher during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.2% change in BKSY stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.92 | 21.16 | -24.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 98 | 109 | 11.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.3 | 7.5 | -27.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 38 | -5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKSY | -24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.1% | 31.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.9% change in BKSY stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.16 | 21.16 | -15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 107 | 109 | 2.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 8.4 | 7.5 | -11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 38 | -6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKSY | -15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.3% | 35.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.4% | 23.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in BKSY stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.15 | 21.16 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 105 | 109 | 4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.3 | 7.5 | 19.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 38 | -15.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKSY | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.1% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.1% | 32.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 126.1% change in BKSY stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 244.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.36 | 21.16 | 126.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 74 | 109 | 47.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 7.5 | 244.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 17 | 38 | -55.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 126.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKSY | 126.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.3% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 72.7% | 36.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKSY Return | -57% | -66% | -9% | -4% | 74% | 17% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 48% | -20% | -11% | 28% | 85% | 72% | 327% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKSY Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 48% | 43% | 52% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKSY Max Drawdown | -70% | -78% | -51% | -69% | -67% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -46% | -53% | -42% | -51% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PL, SATL, TRMB, IRDM, GSAT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 201.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 333.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1436 days | 427 days |
In The Past
BlackSky Technology's stock fell -66.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 201.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BKSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 201.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -76.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 333.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1436 days | 427 days |
In The Past
BlackSky Technology's stock fell -66.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 201.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) specializes in delivering real-time, global geospatial intelligence. The company achieves this by leveraging its own constellation of satellites to capture high-resolution imagery, which it then processes alongside data from various other space, internet-of-things, and terrestrial sensors. This comprehensive data collection and analysis enable BlackSky to provide timely insights and imagery products to its clients worldwide.
The company's core offerings include imagery, data analytic products, and related geospatial intelligence services. BlackSky also provides mission systems, encompassing the development, integration, and operational management of satellite and ground infrastructure. Its diverse customer base spans both commercial and government sectors, with its solutions being vital for applications in government defense and intelligence, commercial and industrial planning, and monitoring for catastrophe, climate, and environmental events.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for BlackSky Technology:
- Palantir for real-time satellite intelligence.
- Google Maps meets a global surveillance firm, providing near real-time insights.
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- Geospatial Intelligence: Provides actionable insights derived from Earth observation data for various applications.
- Imagery Products: Offers high-resolution satellite imagery captured from its constellation.
- Data Analytic Products and Services: Delivers tools and services to process and interpret geospatial and imagery data, including observations from various sensors.
- Mission Systems: Encompasses the development, integration, and operations of satellite and ground systems for customers.
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BlackSky Technology's primary major customer is the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an agency of the United States Government.
According to BlackSky's financial disclosures (e.g., 10-K filings), the NRO consistently accounts for a significant majority (typically 60-66%) of the company's total revenue.
Beyond this dominant government customer, BlackSky serves a diverse range of commercial and other government customers globally. While BlackSky sells to numerous entities across these sectors, no individual commercial company is publicly disclosed as a major customer to the same extent as the NRO. Therefore, specific commercial customer company names and symbols cannot be provided as major customers.
BlackSky's products and services are utilized across the following broad categories of customers and applications:
- Government Defense and Intelligence: Including agencies like the NRO, as well as other national governments and defense organizations.
- Commercial, Construction, and Industrial: Various businesses requiring geospatial intelligence for operations, planning, and monitoring.
- Catastrophe, Climate, and Environment: Organizations involved in monitoring and responding to environmental changes, natural disasters, and climate impacts (e.g., insurance companies, environmental agencies).
As the National Reconnaissance Office is a government agency and not a public company, it does not have a stock symbol.
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Major Suppliers of BlackSky Technology (BKSY):
- Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) (for Amazon Web Services)
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Brian E. O'Toole, President & Chief Executive Officer
Brian E. O'Toole has over 30 years of executive experience building and growing high-performance technology businesses at startup, growth, and Fortune 100 companies. He founded OpenWhere, a technology company that delivered on-demand location intelligence solutions, which BlackSky acquired in 2016. O'Toole also co-founded ITspatial, an early pioneer of interactive 3D mapping, which was acquired by Overwatch Textron Systems. Before OpenWhere, he served as Chief Technology Officer at GeoEye, with global responsibility for developing, managing, and expanding the company's technology, products, and services in geospatial intelligence. He left GeoEye after its successful $1.3 billion merger with DigitalGlobe.
Henry Dubois, Chief Financial Officer
Henry Dubois was appointed Chief Financial Officer at BlackSky in 2022 and is responsible for the financial operations of the company, including corporate finance, accounting, investor relations, compliance, and corporate development. He joined BlackSky as Chief Development Officer in 2021, after serving as an advisor to the company's board since September 2018. Dubois brings over 30 years of financial and executive experience in the commercial remote sensing industry. He previously served as CFO at GeoEye, Inc., where he helped scale the business from $30 million to $350 million of revenue. Prior to GeoEye, he held several executive positions at DigitalGlobe, Inc., including president, CFO, and chief operating officer.
Chris Lin, Esq., General Counsel and Chief Administrative Officer
Chris Lin brings nearly two decades of strategic leadership and legal experience. She oversees legal and regulatory compliance, contracts, people operations, administrative and facility operations, and satellite supply chain and production.
Nick Merski, Chief Operations Officer
Nick Merski leads global program management and controls, the expansion of customer relationships, and the execution of strategic internal programs, including the Gen-3 constellation. He has played a pivotal role in overseeing the entire end-to-end satellite strategy, development, launch, and on-orbit operations of BlackSky's constellation over the last decade. Before joining BlackSky in 2015, Merski served as an officer and civil servant in the U.S. Air Force.
Kevin Rioles, Chief Information Officer
Kevin Rioles oversees the management and implementation of security and information technology systems across BlackSky. He also leads the development teams responsible for platform architecture, ground systems, and flight software. Rioles joined BlackSky in 2015 and has decades of leadership skills in systems engineering, integration, product infrastructure, and program management. Prior to BlackSky, he was the Director of Systems Engineering at Thermopylae Sciences and Technology.
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The key risks to BlackSky Technology (BKSY) are:
- Reliance on U.S. Government Contracts and Budget Uncertainty: BlackSky Technology has historically derived a significant portion of its revenue (approximately 70%) from the U.S. government. The company has faced negative impacts from U.S. government budget uncertainties and contract timing volatility, leading to revisions in its revenue guidance. This reliance creates a substantial near-term headwind for the business.
- Delayed Profitability and Significant Cash Burn: BlackSky Technology is not yet profitable and has consistently reported net losses, experiencing ongoing cash burn. For instance, the company's Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $4.5 million, and it reported a net loss of $9.4 million in Q2 2024. This financial challenge creates liquidity risk and suggests a continued need for financing, with its Altman Z-Score indicating a potential risk of bankruptcy.
- Intense Competition: BlackSky operates in a highly competitive geospatial intelligence and satellite imagery sector. The company faces formidable rivals such as Planet Labs, Maxar Technologies, Airbus Defence and Space, and Satellogic, which could impact its market share and pricing power.
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High-Altitude Platform Stations (HAPS)
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The addressable markets for BlackSky Technology (BKSY) main products and services are substantial and are projected to grow significantly in the coming years.
Geospatial Intelligence Market
The global geospatial intelligence market is forecast to expand from an estimated $55.61 billion in 2025 to $94.18 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% for the period. Another projection indicates growth from $37.13 billion in 2025 to $62.88 billion by 2030, also at a CAGR of 11.1%. North America is expected to be the dominant region in this market, holding a 37.48% share in 2025.
Geospatial Analytics Market
The global geospatial analytics market size was estimated at $114.32 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $226.53 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.3% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates for the global geospatial analytics market include a valuation of $78.5 billion in 2023, and projections to reach approximately $338.78 billion by 2034 from $92.19 billion in 2024. The market was also valued at $102.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $309.84 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 12.90%. North America held the largest share of over 34.0% in the geospatial analytics market in 2024.
Commercial Satellite Imaging Market
The global commercial satellite imaging market size was estimated at $3.31 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately $6.36 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 6.75% from 2026 to 2035. Another report indicates the global commercial satellite imaging market was valued at $3.3 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $9.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 11.5% from 2023 to 2032. More broadly, the global satellite imaging market was valued at $5.7 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $15.9 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.80%. North America dominated the commercial satellite imaging market with the largest share of 42% in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for BlackSky Technology (BKSY) over the next 2-3 years:
- Deployment and Commercialization of Gen-3 Satellites: The ongoing deployment and commercialization of BlackSky's Gen-3 satellite constellation is a significant driver of future revenue. These advanced satellites provide higher-resolution imagery (35 cm) and increased capacity, which is expected to unlock the company's next phase of growth. BlackSky anticipates having approximately 8 to 9 Gen-3 satellites on orbit by the end of 2026.
- Expansion of International Customer Base and Contracts: BlackSky has observed substantial growth in its international customer base, with international contracts now accounting for over half of its total revenue. The company has secured significant international multi-year contracts, which contribute to a robust backlog and provide strong revenue visibility.
- Growth in Imagery and Analytics Services: There is strong and growing demand for BlackSky's high-margin Imagery and Analytics services from both new and existing government customers, including in the US and internationally. This demand is for space-based intelligence solutions, real-time imagery, and automated AI-driven analytics. The company is also expanding its offerings with new services like automated non-Earth imaging.
- Conversion of Pilot Programs to Long-Term Subscriptions and Contracts: A key strategy for BlackSky is to convert initial pilot programs with customers into sustained, long-term subscriptions and contracts. This conversion process contributes to a growing backlog and aims to establish more recurring revenue streams.
- Growth in Professional and Engineering Services and Mission Solutions: Alongside its core imagery and analytics, BlackSky anticipates continued revenue growth from its Professional and Engineering Services. This segment has seen significant increases driven by new customer wins and the execution of major international contracts, including new engineering projects. The company's Mission Solutions business, often tied to Gen-3 satellite contracts and related capabilities, is also identified as a growth contributor.
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Share Issuance
- BlackSky went public in 2021 via a SPAC merger, which provided approximately $283 million in net proceeds to fund constellation expansion and platform development.
- In 2025, the company raised $185 million through convertible notes to fund Gen-3 launches.
- Through equity issuances, net of costs, the company generated $40.829 million in 2025 and $47.009 million in 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In 2021, BlackSky received approximately $283 million in net proceeds from its public listing via a SPAC merger.
- The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory awarded BlackSky a $99 million contract to develop next-generation optical imaging payloads.
- BlackSky secured a multi-year contract valued at over $30 million with a strategic international defense customer in Q3 2025 for Gen-3 tactical ISR services.
Outbound Investments
- BlackSky acquired LeoStella LLC in 2024 to enhance vertical integration and enable in-house satellite production.
Capital Expenditures
- BlackSky's capital expenditures for the full year 2025 totaled $46.6 million.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures for the full year 2026 to be between $50 million and $60 million.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on building out the Gen-3 satellite constellation and advancing next-generation satellite and AI technologies.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Support Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKSY | BlackSky Technology | 15.3% | -12.2x | -29.6% | 122.3% | -72.4% | — |
| CACI | CACI International | 12.6% | 24.7x | 13.8% | 79.8% | 118.1% | +191pp |
| HRI | Herc | 17.3% | 84.4x | 1.7% | 19.1% | -18.7% | +54pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 0.6% | 121.3% | 191.4% | FIX 2120% · STRL 2118% · CDNL 1828% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 102.6% | 68.1% | 165.6% | HOS 40058% · MATX 195% · KEX 166% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | -3.9% | 42.7% | 93.9% | CAT 345% · ALSN 230% · WAB 222% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -19.0% | 68.3% | 61.3% | ATI 1010% · FTAI 848% · HWM 614% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 8.3% | 42.0% | 45.7% | PSIX 1160% · CRS 1131% · EROC 602% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 22.1% | 58.9% | 43.8% | FSTR 127% · CSX 55% · RAIL 46% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 3.2% | 32.3% | 42.1% | DXPE 467% · AIT 261% · URI 218% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 30.1% | 1.3% | 31.9% | XPO 282% · R 219% · CVLG 145% |
| Diversified Support Services ← | 32 | 4.8% | 25.8% | 26.8% | LIME 3310% · TH 364% · CXW 248% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -0.9% | 56.4% | 26.3% | POWL 2269% · BE 1325% · VRT 992% |
| Building Products | 33 | -15.4% | 1.9% | 16.4% | LMB 723% · GFF 340% · PPIH 261% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 6.8% | 2.2% | -2.3% | RCMT 575% · CSW 115% · DD 73% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 6.0% | -5.2% | -7.2% | BLBD 178% · DE 103% · GENC 62% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -37.6% | 17.9% | -8.5% | CECO 819% · ADUR 406% · NVRI 321% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -5.5% | -26.5% | -12.4% | HURN 229% · CRAI 76% · GRNQ 30% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -24.8% | 46.8% | -16.2% | UBER 47% · CAR -16% · LYFT -71% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -43.0% | 33.6% | -16.6% | CIX 165% · MG 113% · BCO 70% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.1% | -11.5% | -23.6% | EXLS 46% · BR 7% · G -22% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 21.8% | 18.3% | -24.8% | PBI 184% · TILE 125% · HNI 47% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 9.0% | 21.7% | -33.9% | LTM 3351% · UAL 119% · DAL 96% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -25.8% | -27.6% | -36.5% | FDX 80% · EXPD 80% · CHRW 76% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 8.2% | -19.5% | -41.3% | BBSI 67% · ADP 47% · KFY 6% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -76.3% | -78.7% | -71.6% | JOBY -37% · ASLE -72% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| BlackSky Stock Pre-Market (-10%) : Profit-Taking & Unconfirmed Downgrade Rumors | 12/27/2025 | |
| BlackSky Technology Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With BlackSky Technology Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 329 |
| Op Inc LTM | -4 |
| FCF LTM | 131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 132 |
| CFO LTM | 256 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 374 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -11.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space-based intelligence & AI services | 65 | 70 | |||
| Mission solutions | 21 | 6 | |||
| Advanced technology programs | 20 | 26 | |||
| Imagery & software analytical services | 65 | ||||
| Professional & engineering services | 29 | ||||
| Data, software and analytics | 13 | 7 | |||
| Engineering services | 9 | 9 | |||
| Imagery | 34 | 9 | |||
| Professional services | 9 | 10 | |||
| Total | 107 | 102 | 94 | 65 | 34 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $21.16 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/20/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -59.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $24.14 | $27.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -12.4% | -23.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.1% | 103.0% |
| Downside Capture | 338.55 | 462.14 |
| Upside Capture | 187.89 | 349.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.0% | 40.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.18 | 2.73 | 2.53 | 2.84 | 3.23 | 2.46 |
| Up Beta | 4.92 | 3.44 | 4.59 | 2.30 | 1.94 | 1.87 |
| Down Beta | 1.96 | 4.39 | 1.57 | 2.97 | 2.14 | 1.92 |
| Up Capture | 147% | 205% | 142% | 314% | 1793% | 22405% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 27 | 60 | 126 | 365 |
| Down Capture | 274% | 283% | 271% | 268% | 188% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 37 | 66 | 126 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKSY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKSY | -29.9% | 102.8% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.2% | 17.4% | 0.39 | 32.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | 40.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.4% | 29.6% | 0.11 | 21.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.0% | 20.9% | 1.67 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.7% | -0.05 | 11.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.7% | 44.2% | -0.73 | 31.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKSY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKSY | -24.9% | 100.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 32.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 36.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.40 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 23.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 52.2% | 0.43 | 23.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKSY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKSY | -12.9% | 88.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 20.1% | 0.57 | 23.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 28.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 17.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 10.4% | 26.6% | -18.1% |
| 5/7/2026 | -20.4% | 1.6% | -14.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.0% | 20.4% | 39.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.4% | -15.7% | -2.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.0% | 1.0% | -11.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 31.0% | 41.0% | 47.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -24.2% | -30.0% | -44.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.1% | -2.2% | 42.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 10.3% | 5.0% | 39.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -10.5% | -18.1% |
| Max Positive | 31.0% | 41.0% | 59.8% |
| Max Negative | -24.2% | -30.0% | -44.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 10.4% | 26.6% | -18.1% |
| 5/7/2026 | -20.4% | 1.6% | -14.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.0% | 20.4% | 39.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.4% | -15.7% | -2.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.0% | 1.0% | -11.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 31.0% | 41.0% | 47.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -24.2% | -30.0% | -44.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.1% | -2.2% | 42.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.6% | 5.0% | -16.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -7.9% | -7.9% | -15.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -10.4% | -12.8% | -16.5% |
| 11/8/2023 | -4.2% | 4.2% | 11.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | -8.2% | -19.6% | -29.9% |
| 5/10/2023 | 10.3% | 5.1% | 59.8% |
| 3/7/2023 | -6.7% | -26.9% | -30.1% |
| 11/8/2022 | -7.2% | -2.2% | 8.3% |
| 8/10/2022 | 7.7% | -6.5% | -18.1% |
| 6/15/2022 | -8.2% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| 2/22/2022 | -7.8% | -3.1% | -30.2% |
| 11/12/2021 | -13.2% | -10.5% | -23.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 10.3% | 5.0% | 39.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -10.5% | -18.1% |
| Max Positive | 31.0% | 41.0% | 59.8% |
| Max Negative | -24.2% | -30.0% | -44.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 140.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 18.00 Mil | 24.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 18.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 5.7% | Raised | Guidance: 132.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 12.00 Mil | 18.00 Mil | 24.00 Mil | 50.0% | Raised | Guidance: 12.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lin, Christiana L | General Counsel & CAO | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 23.10 | 6,000 | 138,600 | 9,740,808 | Form |
| 2 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 22.97 | 4,000 | 91,880 | 11,001,045 | Form |
| 3 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 22.88 | 20,000 | 457,600 | 23,872,900 | Form |
| 4 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 20.95 | 56,280 | 1,179,066 | 22,278,146 | Form |
| 5 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 20.95 | 15,225 | 318,964 | 10,117,404 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lin, Christiana L | General Counsel & CAO | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 23.10 | 6,000 | 138,600 | 9,740,808 | Form |
| 2 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 22.97 | 4,000 | 91,880 | 11,001,045 | Form |
| 3 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 9232026 | 22.88 | 20,000 | 457,600 | 23,872,900 | Form |
| 4 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 20.95 | 56,280 | 1,179,066 | 22,278,146 | Form |
| 5 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 20.95 | 15,225 | 318,964 | 10,117,404 | Form |
| 6 | Lin, Christiana L | General Counsel & CAO | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 20.95 | 13,052 | 273,439 | 8,959,896 | Form |
| 7 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 21.83 | 20,000 | 436,600 | 24,442,527 | Form |
| 8 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 23.78 | 4,000 | 95,120 | 11,846,150 | Form |
| 9 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 34.10 | 15,512 | 528,959 | 38,862,952 | Form |
| 10 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 34.10 | 14,749 | 502,941 | 17,123,520 | Form |
| 11 | Lin, Christiana L | General Counsel & CAO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 34.10 | 12,001 | 409,234 | 15,028,961 | Form |
| 12 | Ward, Tracy | SVP & Controller | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.27 | 700 | 13,489 | 842,600 | Form |
| 13 | Lin, Christiana L | General Counsel & CAO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.27 | 10,388 | 200,177 | 7,583,863 | Form |
| 14 | Dubois, Henry Edward | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.27 | 12,912 | 248,814 | 8,929,198 | Form |
| 15 | O'Toole, Brian E | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 19.27 | 13,416 | 258,526 | 19,048,800 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Diversified Support Services Resources |
| Facilities Management Journal (FMJ) |
| Supply Chain Brain |
| Corporate Services News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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