Tearsheet

BlackSky Technology (BKSY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.41 | Market Cap: $612.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services

BlackSky Technology (BKSY)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.41
Market Cap: $612.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Diversified Support Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -35%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 214%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%
6   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Autonomous Technologies, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -35%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -13%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 214%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BKSY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

It appears that the search results include information for the requested period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. I can extract key points from these results regarding BlackSky Technology's stock movement. I need to focus on why the stock moved by 0.7% (even though the search results show more significant fluctuations like a 4.18% gain on Dec 3, 2025, or a 13.96% drop on Nov 13, 2025). The request asks to explain *why* it moved by 0.7%, implying this is a net movement over the entire period, or a specific movement that needs explanation. Given the results show fluctuations, I should highlight key events that would generally influence stock price movements within that period. I will prioritize information about contract wins, earnings reports, analyst ratings, and significant operational updates as these are common drivers of stock price changes. I need to limit to 5 key points and format them as requested. Let's review the timeline within the requested period: * **August 2025:** * August 7, 2025: BlackSky reported Q2 2025 results. Revenue was $22.2 million (down from Q2 2024), imagery and software analytical services revenue was up, but professional and engineering services revenue was down. Net loss increased to $41.2 million, primarily due to derivative losses. The company maintained its full-year 2025 outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, despite near-term volatility from the U.S. government budget process. BlackSky's stock dropped 13.99% in premarket trading on August 7, 2025. * August 9, 2025: Wall Street Zen downgraded BlackSky Technology from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" rating. * **September 2025:** * September 10, 2025: CEO Brian E. O'Toole sold 33,292 shares for approximately $580,945.40. This is less than $5 million, so it should not be included as per the instructions unless other factors warrant it. * **October 2025:** * October 8, 2025: Weiss Ratings restated a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BlackSky Technology. * October 10, 2025: HC Wainwright & Co. boosted their price target from $28.00 to $42.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating. * **November 2025:** * November 4, 2025: BlackSky announced a multi-year contract exceeding $30 million to provide Gen-3 tactical ISR services to a strategic international defense customer. BlackSky Technology shares were down 2.84% in premarket trading on this day. * November 6, 2025: BlackSky reported Q3 2025 results. Total revenue was $19.6 million (below analyst estimates of $28.67 million), and net loss was $15.3 million. However, the company highlighted over $60 million in new contract awards, with 91% from international contracts, and a strengthened cash balance. EPS of -$0.35 beat analyst estimates of -$0.37. The stock dropped 11.45% on November 6, 2025. * November 14, 2025: An article noted that despite the recent $30 million contract, BlackSky's shares had been volatile, with a sharp 54.34% drop in the past month, amid pressure from slowing revenue growth and widening losses. * **December 2025:** * December 3, 2025: BlackSky Technology stock price gained 4.18%, rising from $16.97 to $17.68. The question is about a 0.7% movement for the period. This is a very small net movement, implying either a lack of significant net change, or that the user is asking for general drivers of movement within the period that could lead to such a net change. Given the significant fluctuations mentioned in the search results (e.g., -13.99% on Aug 7, -11.45% on Nov 6, +4.18% on Dec 3), a 0.7% net change would be a result of many opposing forces. I should highlight the most impactful events that would drive stock movements, which would collectively result in the net change. Here are the key points for the specified period: 1. BlackSky Technology announced its Q2 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, which included a reported net loss of $41.2 million, primarily due to derivative losses, and a slight decrease in total revenue compared to the previous year. 2. Analyst sentiment saw mixed changes with Wall Street Zen downgrading BlackSky from "hold" to "strong sell" on August 9, 2025, and Weiss Ratings reaffirming a "sell" rating on October 8, 2025, while HC Wainwright & Co. raised its price target to $42.00 with a "buy" rating on October 10, 2025. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BKSY Return7%-57%-66%-9%-4%57%-78%
Peers Return19%25%4%33%23%-11%127%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BKSY Win Rate58%42%33%58%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%45%67%55%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BKSY Max Drawdown-7%-57%-76%-29%-64%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-11%-17%-7%-3%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBKSYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-92.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1288.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-11.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven13.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days

Compare to TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS


In The Past

BlackSky Technology's stock fell -92.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/19/2021. A -92.8% loss requires a 1288.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BlackSky Technology (BKSY)

Better Bets than BlackSky Technology (BKSY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BKSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BlackSky Technology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BKSYTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameBlackSky.Thomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Mkt Price17.68134.3051.42184.7138.85188.4492.86
Mkt Cap0.660.43.274.537.624.130.8
Rev LTM1027,3762,67610,5574,64717,3326,011
Op Inc LTM-492,1282132,4171,6972,0411,869
FCF LTM-361,822861,7021,2311,3381,284
FCF 3Y Avg-311,8691131,5851,0131,1491,081
CFO LTM-212,4591042,1201,8001,5061,653
CFO 3Y Avg-162,4561311,9791,5461,3121,429

Growth & Margins

BKSYTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameBlackSky.Thomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Rev Chg LTM-5.1%3.0%59.2%8.2%9.7%6.5%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.7%3.9%27.2%9.1%9.9%6.9%9.5%
Rev Chg Q-13.0%3.4%58.1%8.7%5.2%6.7%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.8%0.8%10.5%2.1%1.2%1.6%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-48.0%28.9%7.9%22.9%36.5%11.8%17.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-58.9%26.9%9.4%21.8%37.3%10.3%16.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.8%2.3%-0.5%0.1%0.7%-0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-20.5%33.3%3.9%20.1%38.7%8.7%14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-17.6%34.6%7.2%20.2%36.2%8.0%14.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-35.5%24.7%3.2%16.1%26.5%7.7%11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-33.8%26.4%6.2%16.2%23.7%7.0%11.6%

Valuation

BKSYTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameBlackSky.Thomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Mkt Cap0.660.43.274.537.624.130.8
P/S7.09.51.27.810.21.47.4
P/EBIT-9.529.413.434.228.011.820.7
P/E-8.039.831.744.730.617.231.1
P/CFO-34.128.431.639.026.416.127.4
Total Yield-12.5%4.0%3.2%2.6%3.3%6.7%3.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.9%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-17.0%2.8%3.7%2.3%2.1%6.0%2.5%
D/E0.30.00.60.00.00.20.1
Net D/E0.10.00.60.0-0.10.20.1

Returns

BKSYTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameBlackSky.Thomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
1M Rtn-13.4%-13.4%-6.7%1.7%-9.7%-2.4%-8.2%
3M Rtn7.6%-24.0%-14.8%-9.9%-19.3%6.3%-12.4%
6M Rtn47.1%-30.9%-28.9%-18.4%-22.9%31.1%-20.6%
12M Rtn66.6%-17.3%-37.1%-16.4%-37.6%16.0%-16.9%
3Y Rtn24.2%18.9%2.5%64.0%15.7%77.1%21.6%
1M Excs Rtn-13.4%-13.3%-6.6%1.7%-9.6%-2.4%-8.1%
3M Excs Rtn7.2%-29.9%-19.6%-15.8%-27.6%0.4%-17.7%
6M Excs Rtn32.4%-45.6%-43.7%-33.1%-37.6%16.4%-35.4%
12M Excs Rtn37.8%-29.7%-51.3%-31.1%-52.3%1.6%-30.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-34.7%-52.1%-68.1%-5.8%-53.4%8.2%-43.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,664,830
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202519.5%
Average Daily Volume2,096,729
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.13
Basic Shares Quantity35,194,000
Short % of Basic Shares24.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024320202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023320202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022323202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021