Tearsheet

Rocket Lab (RKLB)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $56.78 | Market Cap: $30.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Rocket Lab (RKLB)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $56.78
Market Cap: $30.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -41%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 46x
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 110%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
4  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 135%
5  Key risks
RKLB key risks include [1] launch failures or manufacturing delays for its core Electron rocket and [2] the successful development and execution of its critical next-generation Neutron rocket program.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -229 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -41%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 46x
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 110%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 135%
7 Key risks
RKLB key risks include [1] launch failures or manufacturing delays for its core Electron rocket and [2] the successful development and execution of its critical next-generation Neutron rocket program.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RKLB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Rocket Lab's (RKLB) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025: 1. Accelerated and Successful Launch Cadence: Rocket Lab demonstrated robust operational reliability by achieving a record number of Electron launches, with the 70th mission completed in August and reaching 19 successful missions by mid-December, with a 20th planned by year-end. This consistent performance and high mission success rate reinforced investor confidence in the company's execution capabilities.

2. Major Contract Wins and Growing Backlog: The company secured significant new contracts, including a groundbreaking agreement with Synspective for 10 additional Electron missions, expanding its total dedicated launches for the Japanese firm to 21. This contributed to a record-setting backlog of 49 contracted missions by Q3 2025, valued at $1.1 billion, signaling strong future revenue potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RKLB Return21%-69%47%361%118%
Peers Return-3%-3%111%71%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RKLB Win Rate100%42%33%50%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate48%47%45%62%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RKLB Max Drawdown-2%-71%-3%-36%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-23%-11%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, LHX, PL, RDW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRKLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven482.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven695 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-3.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Rocket Lab's stock fell -82.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/9/2021. A -82.8% loss requires a 482.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Better Bets than Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RKLB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rocket Lab

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RKLBLMTNOCLHXPLRDWMedian
NameRocket L.Lockheed.Northrop.L3Harris.Planet L.Redwire  
Mkt Price55.49477.06568.72282.8517.886.59169.17
Mkt Cap25.3110.681.452.94.01.039.1
Rev LTM55573,34940,92821,37328229610,964
Op Inc LTM-2295,9974,0982,366-73-1421,146
FCF LTM-2324,5931,8342,16435-167934
FCF 3Y Avg-1705,6342,1371,828-42-70893
CFO LTM-1036,3613,4382,507107-1461,307
CFO 3Y Avg-897,3863,7912,20811-581,109

Growth & Margins

RKLBLMTNOCLHXPLRDWMedian
NameRocket L.Lockheed.Northrop.L3Harris.Planet L.Redwire  
Rev Chg LTM52.4%2.9%-0.1%2.9%16.9%-0.6%2.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg44.3%4.3%5.2%8.4%17.3%28.3%12.9%
Rev Chg Q48.0%8.8%4.3%2.4%32.6%50.7%20.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.0%2.1%1.1%0.6%7.6%13.3%4.9%
Op Mgn LTM-41.4%8.2%10.0%11.1%-26.0%-48.0%-8.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-54.4%11.0%9.0%10.4%-54.3%-21.2%-6.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.7%0.0%0.2%0.2%3.3%-6.5%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-18.6%8.7%8.4%11.7%38.0%-49.3%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-25.0%10.5%9.4%11.0%1.5%-20.2%5.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-41.8%6.3%4.5%10.1%12.3%-56.6%5.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-46.2%8.0%5.3%9.2%-19.5%-24.5%-7.1%

Valuation

RKLBLMTNOCLHXPLRDWMedian
NameRocket L.Lockheed.Northrop.L3Harris.Planet L.Redwire  
Mkt Cap25.3110.681.452.94.01.039.1
P/S45.71.62.12.714.24.43.5
P/EBIT-19.315.822.6--6.617.5
P/E-128.227.621.733.7-31.0-6.37.7
P/CFO-245.018.225.422.837.4-9.020.5
Total Yield-0.8%5.6%5.3%4.5%-3.2%-15.9%1.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%0.7%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.8%2.8%4.2%--10.1%3.5%
D/E-0.20.20.2-0.20.2
Net D/E-0.20.20.2-0.10.2

Returns

RKLBLMTNOCLHXPLRDWMedian
NameRocket L.Lockheed.Northrop.L3Harris.Planet L.Redwire  
1M Rtn21.8%3.2%2.3%-2.3%56.8%21.8%12.5%
3M Rtn17.5%1.3%-1.4%-0.1%83.4%-26.8%0.6%
6M Rtn110.0%1.0%13.8%13.7%250.6%-60.5%13.7%
12M Rtn114.2%-0.1%19.9%29.8%312.9%-51.6%24.9%
3Y Rtn1,263.4%7.4%12.9%41.4%249.2%216.8%129.1%
1M Excs Rtn20.9%2.2%1.4%-3.2%55.9%20.8%11.5%
3M Excs Rtn12.4%-1.4%-4.1%-2.3%71.8%-19.3%-1.8%
6M Excs Rtn96.4%-12.7%0.1%0.1%236.9%-74.2%0.1%
12M Excs Rtn133.4%-13.5%7.8%16.1%347.3%-55.3%11.9%
3Y Excs Rtn1,214.4%-65.8%-59.8%-33.0%166.4%148.6%57.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Space Systems173150232
Launch Services72613933
Total2452116235


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity45,204,231
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.2%
Average Daily Volume15,463,478
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.92
Basic Shares Quantity528,725,980
Short % of Basic Shares8.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-1.3%-16.6%22.4%
8/7/20251.1%-3.2%8.0%
5/8/2025-11.2%9.2%28.3%
2/27/20253.3%-5.9%-6.1%
11/12/202428.4%39.8%54.0%
8/8/202412.6%22.2%28.7%
5/6/2024-2.2%2.5%9.4%
1/31/2024-2.6%-14.5%-7.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive989
# Negative898
Median Positive12.0%5.5%22.4%
Median Negative-2.4%-8.6%-10.0%
Max Positive37.3%39.8%54.0%
Max Negative-11.2%-16.6%-20.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021324202210-K 12/31/2021