Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.565 | Market Cap: $24.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.565Market Cap: $24.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RKLB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Rocket Lab's (RKLB) stock movement by -8% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Delay of Neutron Rocket's First Launch: The anticipated inaugural flight of Rocket Lab's medium-lift reusable Neutron rocket was delayed from an initial target in mid-2025, then to late 2025, and subsequently to the first quarter of 2026 for further testing and qualification. This ongoing delay created investor uncertainty regarding a key future growth driver for the company.
2. Share Dilution Concerns from At-the-Market (ATM) Equity Offering: In September 2025, Rocket Lab announced an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering plan to raise up to $750 million. While intended for flexible fundraising, such offerings can lead to investor apprehension about potential share dilution, which negatively impacted the stock price upon its announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RKLB Return | - | 21% | -69% | 47% | 361% | 65% | 314% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RKLB Win Rate | 100% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RKLB Max Drawdown | - | -2% | -71% | -3% | -36% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RKLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 482.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Rocket Lab's stock fell -82.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/9/2021. A -82.8% loss requires a 482.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RKLB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rocket Lab
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| Rev LTM | 303 |
| Op Inc LTM | -110 |
| FCF LTM | -104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 54.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 58.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 36.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -126.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -55.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -93.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -26.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -119.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -45.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| P/S | 19.2 |
| P/EBIT | -25.6 |
| P/E | -301.4 |
| P/CFO | -72.2 |
| Total Yield | -0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 63.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 154.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 709.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 48.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 128.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 718.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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