Tearsheet

Rocket Lab (RKLB)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.565 | Market Cap: $24.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Rocket Lab (RKLB)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.565
Market Cap: $24.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RKLB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Rocket Lab's (RKLB) stock movement by -8% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Delay of Neutron Rocket's First Launch: The anticipated inaugural flight of Rocket Lab's medium-lift reusable Neutron rocket was delayed from an initial target in mid-2025, then to late 2025, and subsequently to the first quarter of 2026 for further testing and qualification. This ongoing delay created investor uncertainty regarding a key future growth driver for the company.

2. Share Dilution Concerns from At-the-Market (ATM) Equity Offering: In September 2025, Rocket Lab announced an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering plan to raise up to $750 million. While intended for flexible fundraising, such offerings can lead to investor apprehension about potential share dilution, which negatively impacted the stock price upon its announcement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RKLB Return-21%-69%47%361%65%314%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RKLB Win Rate100%42%33%50%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RKLB Max Drawdown--2%-71%-3%-36%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRKLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven482.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven695 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-3.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Rocket Lab's stock fell -82.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/9/2021. A -82.8% loss requires a 482.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Better Bets than Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RKLB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rocket Lab

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RKLBFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRocket L.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price44.7218.5551.72-29.503.5429.50
Mkt Cap23.0-1.8---12.4
Rev LTM504101831--4303
Op Inc LTM-222-21150---9-110
FCF LTM-204-19951---9-104
FCF 3Y Avg-158-8---11-11
CFO LTM-111-16574---9-60
CFO 3Y Avg-89-22---10-10

Growth & Margins

RKLBFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRocket L.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM54.4%-6.2%--166.4%54.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg58.4%-19.5%--94.3%58.4%
Rev Chg Q36.0%-3.8%--330.2%36.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.2%-0.9%--35.8%8.2%
Op Mgn LTM-44.1%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-126.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-55.4%-2.2%---699.5%-55.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-22.0%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-93.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-26.3%-2.5%---716.7%-26.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-40.5%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-119.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-45.9%-0.8%---777.8%-45.9%

Valuation

RKLBFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRocket L.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap23.0-1.8---12.4
P/S36.5-1.9---19.2
P/EBIT-83.6-32.3----25.6
P/E-79.7--523.2----301.4
P/CFO-166.3-22.0----72.2
Total Yield-1.3%--0.2%----0.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.9%--0.5%----2.2%
D/E0.0-0.2---0.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.2---0.1

Returns

RKLBFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRocket L.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-27.1%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Rtn2.7%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%11.2%
6M Rtn66.2%-61.1%---63.6%
12M Rtn94.4%-215.2%---154.8%
3Y Rtn952.2%-466.5%---709.4%
1M Excs Rtn-27.1%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Excs Rtn-1.3%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%5.9%
6M Excs Rtn51.5%-46.4%---48.9%
12M Excs Rtn50.4%-206.7%---128.5%
3Y Excs Rtn942.4%-493.7%---718.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity45,751,608
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-10.2%
Average Daily Volume20,748,290
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.21
Basic Shares Quantity515,086,631
Short % of Basic Shares8.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021324202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021