Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, In-Space Manufacturing & Servicing, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48%
1   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, In-Space Manufacturing & Servicing, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -142 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -48%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -49%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -57%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RDW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the stock movement of Redwire (RDW) by -37.5% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Redwire reported disappointing second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025, with revenues of $61.8 million, a decrease from $78.1 million in the same quarter a year prior, and a substantial net loss of $78.9 million, significantly missing analyst expectations.

2. The company further reported a net loss of $41.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, an increase from $21.0 million in the third quarter of 2024, with earnings per share of -$0.29 significantly missing the -$0.12 forecast.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RDW Return---71%44%478%-68%-23%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RDW Win Rate-36%33%50%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RDW Max Drawdown---75%0%-5%-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRDWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-87.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven685.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven698 days464 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Redwire's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/26/2021. A -87.3% loss requires a 685.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Redwire (RDW)

Better Bets than Redwire (RDW)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RDW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Redwire

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RDWFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRedwire Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price5.5718.5551.72-29.503.5418.55
Mkt Cap0.8-1.8---1.3
Rev LTM296101831--4198
Op Inc LTM-142-21150---9-75
FCF LTM-167-19951---9-88
FCF 3Y Avg-70-8---11-11
CFO LTM-146-16574---9-77
CFO 3Y Avg-58-22---10-10

Growth & Margins

RDWFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRedwire Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.6%-6.2%--166.4%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg28.3%-19.5%--94.3%28.3%
Rev Chg Q50.7%-3.8%--330.2%50.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.3%-0.9%--35.8%13.3%
Op Mgn LTM-48.0%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-128.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.2%-2.2%---699.5%-21.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-6.5%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-49.3%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-106.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-20.2%-2.5%---716.7%-20.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-56.6%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-127.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-24.5%-0.8%---777.8%-24.5%

Valuation

RDWFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRedwire Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap0.8-1.8---1.3
P/S4.4-1.9---3.2
P/EBIT-6.6-32.3---12.8
P/E-6.3--523.2----264.7
P/CFO-9.0-22.0---6.5
Total Yield-15.9%--0.2%----8.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.1%--0.5%----5.3%
D/E0.2-0.2---0.2
Net D/E0.1-0.2---0.2

Returns

RDWFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameRedwire Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-24.4%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Rtn-33.1%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%-6.7%
6M Rtn-67.3%-61.1%----3.1%
12M Rtn-57.5%-215.2%---78.8%
3Y Rtn173.0%-466.5%---319.8%
1M Excs Rtn-24.4%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-16.3%
3M Excs Rtn-37.5%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%-12.2%
6M Excs Rtn-82.0%-46.4%----17.8%
12M Excs Rtn-73.6%-206.7%---66.5%
3Y Excs Rtn85.1%-493.7%---289.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,569,138
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.0%
Average Daily Volume6,940,333
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.82
Basic Shares Quantity145,744,055
Short % of Basic Shares13.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023320202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023512202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022331202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021411202210-K 12/31/2021