Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -129%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Alzheimer's Disease Treatment, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -145%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -129%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Alzheimer's Disease Treatment, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -135%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
4 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -131 Mil
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -145%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SAVA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 36% movement in Cassava Sciences (SAVA) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Cassava Sciences shifted its primary drug development focus to simufilam for tuberous sclerosis complex-related epilepsy. This strategic pivot followed the discontinuation of simufilam's development for Alzheimer's disease after earlier Phase 3 trials did not meet their primary endpoints. The company's announcement of plans to initiate a proof-of-concept study for simufilam in TSC-related epilepsy in the first half of 2026, supported by positive preclinical results, provided a new path for the drug candidate and potentially renewed investor interest.

2. The company reported improved financial results in its third-quarter 2025 earnings. On November 12, 2025, Cassava Sciences announced narrowed net losses and a significant reduction in research and development expenses. This financial update, which also highlighted a cash runway extending into 2027, suggested improved operational efficiency and financial stability, positively influencing investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SAVA Return31%541%-32%-24%-90%22%-44%
Peers Return14%38%29%-9%45%44%285%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SAVA Win Rate42%58%33%33%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate38%33%42%29%31%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SAVA Max Drawdown-61%0%-63%-57%-90%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-21%-30%-28%-27%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, ACSB, AIXC. See SAVA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSAVAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven970.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven373.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-92.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1288.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-99.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112800.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven851 days1480 days

Compare to BIIB, TRVI, AVXL, ACSB, AIXC


In The Past

Cassava Sciences's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 970.4% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Cassava Sciences (SAVA)

Better Bets than Cassava Sciences (SAVA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SAVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cassava Sciences

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLACSBAIXCMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Acesis AIxCrypto 
Mkt Price3.10180.7513.704.57-2.544.57
Mkt Cap0.126.51.80.4--1.1
Rev LTM010,06600-00
Op Inc LTM-1312,492-52-56--5-52
FCF LTM-962,262-43-37--6-37
FCF 3Y Avg-871,686-36-31--10-31
CFO LTM-962,454-43-37--6-37
CFO 3Y Avg-861,980-36-31--10-31

Growth & Margins

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLACSBAIXCMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Acesis AIxCrypto 
Rev Chg LTM-4.8%----4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--0.9%-----0.9%
Rev Chg Q-2.8%----2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%----0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-24.8%----24.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.5%----22.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.7%----0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.4%----24.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-20.0%----20.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-22.5%----22.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.0%----17.0%

Valuation

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLACSBAIXCMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Acesis AIxCrypto 
Mkt Cap0.126.51.80.4--1.1
P/S-2.0----2.0
P/EBIT-0.79.5-15.1-17.0---7.9
P/E-0.712.8-15.1-16.3---7.9
P/CFO-0.98.4-16.7-21.2---8.8
Total Yield-140.9%7.8%-6.6%-6.1%---6.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-44.1%6.7%-10.3%-5.7%---8.0%
D/E0.00.30.00.0--0.0
Net D/E-1.30.1-0.3-0.1---0.2

Returns

SAVABIIBTRVIAVXLACSBAIXCMedian
NameCassava .Biogen Trevi Th.Anavex L.Acesis AIxCrypto 
1M Rtn-2.8%19.4%28.0%-41.0%--8.3%
3M Rtn40.3%27.6%91.6%-51.9%--34.0%
6M Rtn44.2%37.1%108.2%-40.8%--40.6%
12M Rtn-7.5%12.4%392.8%-49.1%--2.5%
3Y Rtn-91.3%-39.5%543.2%-62.1%---50.8%
1M Excs Rtn-2.8%19.4%28.1%-40.9%--8.3%
3M Excs Rtn38.8%23.8%84.1%-56.5%--31.3%
6M Excs Rtn29.5%22.4%93.5%-55.5%--25.9%
12M Excs Rtn-32.8%-1.0%362.1%-65.2%---16.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-163.7%-110.9%544.5%-122.6%---116.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Development of novel drugs and diagnostics1522352679423
Total1522352679423


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,316,106
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.9%
Average Daily Volume940,705
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.78
Basic Shares Quantity48,308,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Anderson Robert Eugene Jr 11252025Buy2.908,60024,94024,940Form
1Barry RichardPresident & CEO11242025Buy2.76150,000414,0002,589,046Form