Sonic Automotive (SAH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.855 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Sonic Automotive (SAH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $64.855Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 157% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Key risksSAH key risks include threats to its traditional dealership model from [1] the rise of direct-to-consumer sales and [2] the potential for reduced high-margin service revenue due to the market's shift toward lower-maintenance electric vehicles. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 157% |
| Key risksSAH key risks include threats to its traditional dealership model from [1] the rise of direct-to-consumer sales and [2] the potential for reduced high-margin service revenue due to the market's shift toward lower-maintenance electric vehicles. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SAH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate -20.3% stock movement for Sonic Automotive (SAH) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Sonic Automotive reported an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) miss for Q3 2025. The company's adjusted EPS of $1.41 fell significantly short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.82, representing a -22.53% earnings surprise. This miss led to a substantial decline in the stock price on the day of the earnings release.
2. Net income in Q3 2025 was negatively impacted by increased operating costs. Reported net income for the third quarter was down 37% year-over-year, largely driven by a significant increase in medical expenses and a higher effective income tax rate.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAH Return | 26% | 29% | 2% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 134% |
| Peers Return | 45% | 44% | -7% | 48% | 13% | 6% | 249% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAH Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 60% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAH Max Drawdown | -68% | 0% | -29% | -20% | -14% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -59% | -3% | -23% | -1% | -14% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LAD, PAG, AN, GPI, ABG. See SAH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3358.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,884 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CPRT, LAD, AN, KMX, ABG
In The Past
Sonic Automotive's stock fell -38.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/27/2021. A -38.8% loss requires a 63.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 26.9% | 12.9% | -8.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 09302022 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 26.9% | 12.9% | -8.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sonic Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 224.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.5 |
| Rev LTM | 25,227 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF LTM | 464 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 147 |
| CFO LTM | 683 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 437 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franchised Dealerships Segment revenues | 4,111 | 4,364 | 3,935 | 3,097 | 3,798 |
| EchoPark Segment revenues | 668 | 268 | 741 | 479 | 244 |
| Floor plan deposit balance | 345 | ||||
| Powersports Segment revenues | 212 | 118 | |||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 29 | 229 | 299 | 170 | 29 |
| Corporate and other: Other corporate assets | 0 | ||||
| Total | 5,365 | 4,978 | 4,975 | 3,746 | 4,071 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.9% | -19.1% | -23.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -5.7% | -9.7% | -2.1% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 13.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -4.0% | -3.4% | -20.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 13.9% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.1% | -10.4% | -9.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 5.6% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -6.0% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 20.2% | 14.1% | 46.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -20.0% | -64.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |