AutoNation (AN)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $207.68 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
AutoNation (AN)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $207.68Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Key risksAN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on vehicle manufacturers and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 118% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 74x |
| Key risksAN key risks include [1] its critical dependence on vehicle manufacturers and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting potential reasons for AutoNation's (AN) stock movement of -5.7% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. AutoNation reported a slight revenue miss in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings. While the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.01 surpassed analyst expectations, its reported revenue of $7.0 billion for the third quarter, announced on October 23, 2025, came in slightly below the analyst consensus estimate of $7.07 billion. This mixed financial performance, with revenue lagging expectations, could have contributed to a negative stock sentiment over the period.
2. New Vehicle Gross Profitability Decreased. In the third quarter of 2025, AutoNation experienced a decrease in new vehicle gross profit per unit, which was $2,629 compared to $3,087 a year ago. This decline in profitability per new vehicle, even with an increase in unit sales, could have raised concerns among investors regarding margin pressure in a key segment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AN Return | 44% | 67% | -8% | 40% | 13% | 22% | 327% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 32% | -18% | 43% | 8% | -14% | 100% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AN Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 60% | 40% | 62% | 47% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AN Max Drawdown | -54% | -2% | -18% | -0% | -10% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -6% | -32% | -3% | -13% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CPRT, PAG, LAD, KMX, ABG. See AN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 580 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 448.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 634 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CPRT, PAG, LAD, KMX, ABG
In The Past
AutoNation's stock fell -29.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/19/2023. A -29.5% loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AutoNation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| Rev LTM | 27,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,290 |
| FCF LTM | 657 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 434 |
| CFO LTM | 969 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 768 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.2 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium Luxury | 10,266 | 10,278 | 9,230 | 7,203 | 7,435 |
| Import | 7,881 | 7,690 | 7,798 | 5,988 | 6,469 |
| Domestic | 7,573 | 7,988 | 7,960 | 6,491 | 6,671 |
| Corporate and other | 1,228 | 1,029 | 856 | 709 | 761 |
| Total | 26,949 | 26,985 | 25,844 | 20,390 | 21,336 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium Luxury | 3,507 | 2,997 | 2,669 | 2,752 | 3,150 |
| Corporate and other | 3,500 | 3,533 | 3,092 | 3,240 | 3,067 |
| Domestic | 2,508 | 1,974 | 1,758 | 2,130 | 2,484 |
| Import | 2,035 | 1,556 | 1,424 | 1,765 | 1,842 |
| AutoNation Finance | 430 | ||||
| Total | 11,980 | 10,060 | 8,944 | 9,887 | 10,543 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.6% | -9.2% | -8.4% |
| 7/25/2025 | 1.5% | -3.8% | 9.3% |
| 4/25/2025 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| 2/11/2025 | 1.3% | 0.4% | -14.2% |
| 10/25/2024 | -4.5% | -4.7% | 5.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 6.3% | -7.1% | -0.9% |
| 4/26/2024 | 5.9% | 1.8% | 5.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | -3.9% | -10.1% | 0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -7.1% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.4% | 13.8% | 19.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -11.6% | -14.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7212023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |