Lithia Motors (LAD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $325.77 | Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Lithia Motors (LAD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $325.77Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Lithia Motors (LAD) experienced fluctuations between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. While many analyst ratings during this period indicated a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus with various positive price targets, certain factors may have contributed to a -3.1% movement.
1. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.
Although the overall consensus was positive, there were instances of analysts adjusting price targets and ratings, which could introduce volatility. For example, while Evercore ISI Group raised its price target to $500 on November 24, 2025, other firms like Guggenheim had cut their price objective earlier in August, and Wells Fargo maintained a "Hold" rating in October 2025.
2. Concerns over Gross Profit Per Unit (GPU) and Same-Store Sales.
Some "bearish" analyst perspectives highlighted a noticeable decline in gross profit per unit (GPU), with new GPUs dropping 26.1% year-over-year and falling to $3,226. There was also a significant reduction in same-store used unit sales, which decreased by 9.6%, contributing to weaker-than-expected sales performance.
3. Challenges with New Unit Volumes.
Lithia Motors experienced challenges with new unit volumes, with a 15% year-over-year decline in units per average store after the Pendragon acquisition. This was seen as dampening investor confidence.
4. Selling, General, and Administrative (SGA) Expenses.
Concerns were raised about the company's selling, general, and administrative expenses (SGA) discipline, especially given structural shifts in its business model like expansion into captive auto lending.
5. Share Repurchases and Acquisitions vs. Stock Performance.
Despite significant share repurchases, with Lithia investing $274 million to repurchase nearly 875,000 shares in Q4 2025 and a year-to-date total of $933 million, the stock price was still noted to be "working off a softer patch" with a negative 16.3% one-year total shareholder return. While acquisitions like three Hyundai dealerships in October 2025 and Fines Ford in December 2025 were expected to boost revenue, their immediate impact on stock price could be offset by other market dynamics.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAD Return | 101% | 2% | -30% | 62% | 9% | -10% | 125% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 53% | -17% | 15% | 1% | -3% | 72% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAD Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 65% | 42% | 52% | 47% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAD Max Drawdown | -57% | -4% | -38% | -2% | -26% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -3% | -29% | -16% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAG, AN, KMX, ABG, AAP. See LAD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1921.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1416 days | 1480 days |
Compare to PAG, AN, KMX, ABG, AAP
In The Past
Lithia Motors's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lithia Motors
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 188.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 27,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF LTM | 293 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 203 |
| CFO LTM | 581 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 477 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 5.4 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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