Tearsheet

Lithia Motors (LAD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $325.77 | Market Cap: $8.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Lithia Motors (LAD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $325.77
Market Cap: $8.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LAD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Lithia Motors (LAD) experienced fluctuations between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. While many analyst ratings during this period indicated a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" consensus with various positive price targets, certain factors may have contributed to a -3.1% movement. 1. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.

Although the overall consensus was positive, there were instances of analysts adjusting price targets and ratings, which could introduce volatility. For example, while Evercore ISI Group raised its price target to $500 on November 24, 2025, other firms like Guggenheim had cut their price objective earlier in August, and Wells Fargo maintained a "Hold" rating in October 2025. 2. Concerns over Gross Profit Per Unit (GPU) and Same-Store Sales.

Some "bearish" analyst perspectives highlighted a noticeable decline in gross profit per unit (GPU), with new GPUs dropping 26.1% year-over-year and falling to $3,226. There was also a significant reduction in same-store used unit sales, which decreased by 9.6%, contributing to weaker-than-expected sales performance. 3. Challenges with New Unit Volumes.

Lithia Motors experienced challenges with new unit volumes, with a 15% year-over-year decline in units per average store after the Pendragon acquisition. This was seen as dampening investor confidence. 4. Selling, General, and Administrative (SGA) Expenses.

Concerns were raised about the company's selling, general, and administrative expenses (SGA) discipline, especially given structural shifts in its business model like expansion into captive auto lending. 5. Share Repurchases and Acquisitions vs. Stock Performance.

Despite significant share repurchases, with Lithia investing $274 million to repurchase nearly 875,000 shares in Q4 2025 and a year-to-date total of $933 million, the stock price was still noted to be "working off a softer patch" with a negative 16.3% one-year total shareholder return. While acquisitions like three Hyundai dealerships in October 2025 and Fines Ford in December 2025 were expected to boost revenue, their immediate impact on stock price could be offset by other market dynamics.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LAD Return101%2%-30%62%9%-10%125%
Peers Return20%53%-17%15%1%-3%72%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LAD Win Rate67%50%33%50%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%65%42%52%47%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LAD Max Drawdown-57%-4%-38%-2%-26%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-3%-29%-16%-16%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAG, AN, KMX, ABG, AAP. See LAD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLADS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven132.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven96 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-95.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1921.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1416 days1480 days

Compare to PAG, AN, KMX, ABG, AAP


In The Past

Lithia Motors's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lithia Motors (LAD)

Better Bets than Lithia Motors (LAD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lithia Motors

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LADPAGANKMXABGAAPMedian
NameLithia M.Penske A.AutoNati.CarMax Asbury A.Advance . 
Mkt Price325.76163.17214.3439.02236.2353.53188.75
Mkt Cap8.210.88.15.84.63.26.9
Rev LTM37,61130,68227,91526,36817,8278,62527,142
Op Inc LTM1,5481,2961,284-2341,014-7481,149
FCF LTM-42757-178685629-401293
FCF 3Y Avg-28077357517350-42203
CFO LTM2951,0701111,208868-191581
CFO 3Y Avg311,125408991546169477

Growth & Margins

LADPAGANKMXABGAAPMedian
NameLithia M.Penske A.AutoNati.CarMax Asbury A.Advance . 
Rev Chg LTM8.4%2.2%6.1%1.8%8.1%-5.3%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.0%4.3%1.3%-7.4%7.5%-7.4%2.8%
Rev Chg Q4.9%1.4%6.9%-6.0%13.3%-5.2%3.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.2%0.3%1.6%-1.6%3.3%-1.3%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM4.1%4.2%4.6%-0.9%5.7%-8.7%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.7%4.5%5.2%-1.0%6.4%-2.2%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.3%-0.1%0.4%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM0.8%3.5%0.4%4.6%4.9%-2.2%2.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.0%3.8%1.5%3.8%3.2%1.9%2.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%2.5%-0.6%2.6%3.5%-4.7%1.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%2.6%0.2%2.0%2.1%-0.5%1.1%

Valuation

LADPAGANKMXABGAAPMedian
NameLithia M.Penske A.AutoNati.CarMax Asbury A.Advance . 
Mkt Cap8.210.88.15.84.63.26.9
P/S0.20.40.30.40.30.40.3
P/EBIT4.27.46.16.34.7-4.45.4
P/E8.812.212.419.38.5-9.810.5
P/CFO27.010.774.08.35.5-19.39.5
Total Yield12.0%10.4%8.1%5.2%11.8%-8.6%9.2%
Dividend Yield0.7%2.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.4%6.9%1.1%4.7%7.4%0.1%2.9%
D/E1.80.71.21.91.31.41.3
Net D/E1.80.71.21.91.20.61.2

Returns

LADPAGANKMXABGAAPMedian
NameLithia M.Penske A.AutoNati.CarMax Asbury A.Advance . 
1M Rtn5.9%3.5%8.1%-5.6%0.5%12.9%4.7%
3M Rtn-1.6%-10.4%-2.7%-35.2%-6.9%-8.9%-7.9%
6M Rtn3.4%2.0%17.0%-40.8%3.3%4.5%3.3%
12M Rtn-14.6%1.1%18.8%-53.7%-11.0%28.4%-4.9%
3Y Rtn45.3%39.9%77.1%-43.9%28.9%-62.4%34.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.9%3.6%8.1%-5.6%0.6%12.9%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-9.4%-17.1%-10.4%-41.3%-14.1%-15.8%-15.0%
6M Excs Rtn-11.4%-12.7%2.2%-55.5%-11.4%-10.2%-11.4%
12M Excs Rtn-28.7%-12.5%6.3%-67.1%-22.6%18.9%-17.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-26.9%-31.1%6.8%-113.3%-41.9%-134.6%-36.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Vehicle Operations31,04228,188   
Corporate and other    31
Domestic    4,382
Import    5,268
Luxury    2,992
Total31,04228,188  12,673


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,117,473
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.5%
Average Daily Volume292,613
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.24
Basic Shares Quantity25,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021