Lithia Motors (LAD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $344.05 | Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Lithia Motors (LAD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $344.05Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure. | Key risksLAD key risks include [1] its high debt levels associated with an aggressive acquisition strategy and [2] the particular vulnerability of its Driveway Finance Corporation to shifts in interest rate environments. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Online Vehicle Retail, and EV Sales & Service Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -8.6% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 180% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 27x |
| Key risksLAD key risks include [1] its high debt levels associated with an aggressive acquisition strategy and [2] the particular vulnerability of its Driveway Finance Corporation to shifts in interest rate environments. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LAD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Lithia Motors reported adjusted earnings per share of $9.50 for Q3 2025, surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates of $8.53 to $8.70. Revenues reached $9.67 billion to $9.7 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.41 billion to $9.61 billion, demonstrating solid operational execution.
2. Significant Share Repurchase Program. The company actively engaged in capital management, repurchasing approximately 1,312,000 shares in Q3 2025 at an average price of $312, representing about 5.1% of outstanding shares. This followed a Board authorization of a $750 million share buyback in late August 2025, signaling confidence in the company's valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LAD Return | 101% | 2% | -30% | 62% | 9% | -3% | 144% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 52% | -11% | 41% | 13% | -3% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LAD Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 65% | 48% | 60% | 50% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LAD Max Drawdown | -57% | -4% | -38% | -2% | -26% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -3% | -27% | -2% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AN, PAG, KMX, ABG, GPI. See LAD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LAD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1921.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,416 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PAG, AN, KMX, ABG, AAP
In The Past
Lithia Motors's stock fell -55.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -55.8% loss requires a 126.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lithia Motors
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 224.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 27,142 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF LTM | 561 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
| CFO LTM | 823 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 506 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.2 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -1.1% | 2.1% | -5.5% |
| 7/29/2025 | -5.6% | -7.4% | 8.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | -5.8% | -1.0% | 3.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 4.6% | -1.2% | -22.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | 10.1% | 12.0% | 22.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 6.9% | -0.8% | 10.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -6.1% | -3.8% | -1.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 1.7% | -5.7% | -5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -5.1% | -8.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.5% | 28.0% | 49.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.2% | -13.6% | -35.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |