Landstar System (LSTR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.85 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Landstar System (LSTR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.85Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LSTR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Exceeds Expectations Despite Broader Challenges
Landstar System reported third-quarter 2025 total revenue of $1,205 million, which marginally surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.20 billion, even though it represented a slight decrease year-over-year. This revenue beat, amidst a "challenging freight backdrop," may have contributed to positive investor sentiment.
2. Strong Performance in Specialized Freight Segments
The company highlighted strong performance within its services hauled by unsided/platform equipment. Notably, heavy haul service revenue increased by 17% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, driven by an 8% increase in heavy haul volume and a 9% rise in revenue per load. This strength in specialized freight offerings helped offset declines in other areas of truck transportation.
3. Sequential Growth in Business Capacity Owner (BCO) Truck Count
For the first time since the first quarter of 2022, Landstar achieved sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in its independent business capacity owner (BCO) truck count during Q3 2025. This increase in available capacity could signal a healthier operational outlook to investors.
4. Continued Share Repurchase Program and Dividend Declaration
Landstar continued to return value to shareholders through its capital allocation strategy. During the third quarter of 2025, the company repurchased 308,709 shares of its common stock for an aggregate cost of $40.6 million. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share, payable on December 9, 2025. These actions can reinforce investor confidence.
5. Optimistic Outlook for an Improved Freight Environment
Despite acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty and soft demand in the truckload freight market, Landstar's management expressed optimism for an improved freight transportation environment. The increase in truck revenue per load and the growth in BCO truck count were cited as indicators that the market may be moving towards a more balanced state, providing a positive forward-looking perspective for investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LSTR Return | 21% | 36% | -7% | 21% | -10% | -20% | 33% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 132% | -16% | 37% | -0% | 4% | 261% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LSTR Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 72% | 38% | 52% | 55% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LSTR Max Drawdown | -22% | -1% | -22% | 0% | -13% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -3% | -31% | -6% | -24% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KNX, SAIA, R, CAR, SNDR. See LSTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LSTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1417 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KNX, SAIA, R, CAR, SNDR
In The Past
Landstar System's stock fell -25.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -25.6% loss requires a 34.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LSTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Landstar System
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 136.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,546 |
| Op Inc LTM | 258 |
| FCF LTM | -38 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -50 |
| CFO LTM | 734 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 823 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 29.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Logistics | 5,231 | 7,358 | 6,466 | 4,077 | 4,028 |
| Insurance | 140 | 79 | 72 | 56 | 56 |
| Internal revenue | -68 | ||||
| Total | 5,303 | 7,437 | 6,538 | 4,133 | 4,085 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Logistics | 289 | 524 | 464 | 221 | 259 |
| Insurance | 56 | 47 | 41 | 32 | 40 |
| Total | 344 | 571 | 506 | 253 | 299 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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