Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $47.15 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $47.15Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 16% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, and Supply Chain Digitization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% Key risksGBX key risks include [1] potentially unsustainable recent growth as its backlog and delivery data show signs of a slowdown, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Key risksGBX key risks include [1] potentially unsustainable recent growth as its backlog and delivery data show signs of a slowdown, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Greenbrier Companies (GBX) stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant miss in Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings and revenue. The Greenbrier Companies reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.47 for Q2 2026, which was a 47.19% miss compared to analysts' expectations of $0.89. Additionally, quarterly revenue for the period ending February 28, 2026, came in at $587.5 million, falling 14.28% short of projections. This represented a 22.9% year-over-year decline in revenue.
2. Reduction in full-year fiscal year 2026 guidance. Following the disappointing Q2 results, Greenbrier lowered its full-year 2026 guidance. The company reduced its expected revenue from an initial range of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion down to $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion. Similarly, the EPS guidance was trimmed from $3.75-$4.75 to $3.00-$3.50. This downward revision signaled a less optimistic outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, primarily attributed to a more gradual production ramp and timing of orders.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in GBX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.08 | 47.11 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,070 | 2,896 | -5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 5.1% | -15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 9.8 | 17.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GBX | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.9% | 44.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.1% change in GBX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.92 | 47.11 | 15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,240 | 2,896 | -10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 5.1% | -18.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.2 | 9.8 | 58.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GBX | 15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 35.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.1% change in GBX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 53.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.28 | 47.11 | 14.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,511 | 2,896 | -17.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.8% | 5.1% | -11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.4 | 9.8 | 53.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GBX | 14.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 31.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.7% | 37.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 92.5% change in GBX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 368.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.47 | 47.11 | 92.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,633 | 2,896 | -20.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 5.1% | 368.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.1 | 9.8 | -51.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 31 | 5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 92.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GBX | 92.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 45.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GBX Return | 29% | -25% | 36% | 41% | -21% | 4% | 53% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 0% | 5% | 88% | 7% | 4% | 190% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GBX Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 48% | 44% | 65% | 56% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GBX Max Drawdown | -19% | -54% | -32% | -21% | -44% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -35% | -28% | -22% | -36% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRN, GATX, RAIL, WAB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GBX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 117 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1893 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Greenbrier Companies's stock fell -31.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | GBX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 117 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1893 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -69.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3055 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1094.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 641 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2306 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Greenbrier Companies's stock fell -31.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a couple of brief analogies to describe Greenbrier Companies:
- Caterpillar for freight railcars. (They design, manufacture, repair, and provide parts for heavy rail transportation equipment.)
- A specialized Boeing, but for freight trains instead of airplanes. (They design, build, and service complex transportation vehicles for the rail industry.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Railroad Freight Cars: Designs and manufactures various types of railroad freight cars, including hoppers, boxcars, tank cars, and intermodal railcars.
- Marine Vessels: Produces marine vessels.
- Wheel Services: Provides reconditioning, machining, and finishing services for railcar wheels and axles.
- Railcar Repair & Maintenance: Offers a network for railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance.
- Railcar Parts Manufacturing & Reconditioning: Produces and reconditions various railcar components such as cushioning units, couplers, and roofs.
- Railcar Leasing: Offers operating and per diem leases for a fleet of railcars.
- Railcar Fleet Management Services: Provides comprehensive management services for railcar fleets, including maintenance, accounting, logistics, and remarketing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) sells primarily to other companies. Based on the provided background, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Railroads
- Leasing Companies
- Financial Institutions
- Shippers
- Carriers
- Transportation Companies
The background information does not provide specific names of individual customer companies or their public symbols.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lorie L. Tekorius, Chief Executive Officer & President
Lorie L. Tekorius was promoted to Chief Executive Officer & President of Greenbrier in 2022. She joined the company in 1995 and served in various finance and operations leadership roles, including Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Ms. Tekorius is an elected independent director of Alamo Group, Inc. and serves as a board member of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Portland Branch.
Michael J. Donfris, Chief Financial Officer
Michael J. Donfris was appointed as Chief Financial Officer of Greenbrier in May 2024, with his role officially commencing in July 2024. Prior to joining Greenbrier, he served as CFO at R.J. Corman Railroad Group since 2020. Mr. Donfris possesses nearly four decades of finance and accounting experience, including a significant tenure at Kimberly-Clark and leadership positions at TrinityRail, where he was Vice President of Finance and Chief Accounting Officer. At R.J. Corman, he contributed to developing a multi-year strategic plan and completing railroad acquisitions. At TrinityRail, he led initiatives to increase cash flow and revenues and helped in developing growth strategy and an improved capital structure.
Brian J. Comstock, Executive Vice President & President, The Americas
Brian J. Comstock has served as Executive Vice President & President, The Americas, since January 2024, overseeing operations in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil. He has been involved in the railroad industry since 1980 and joined Greenbrier in 1998. Mr. Comstock previously held the positions of Chief Commercial & Leasing Officer and Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing. Before his time at Greenbrier, he held commercial and operational roles at PLM Leasing, Transco Railway Products, Inc., and Trinity Industries.
William Glenn, Senior Vice President & President, Europe
William Glenn assumed responsibility for all Greenbrier operations in Europe in January 2024, holding the title of Senior Vice President & President, Europe. He has been with Greenbrier for over 20 years in various roles within the company.
William A. Furman, Founder & Former Chief Executive Officer
William A. Furman co-founded The Greenbrier Companies in 1981 with Alan James and served as its President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director from 1981 until stepping down as CEO in 2022 and retiring from the office of Executive Chairman in January 2024. His entrepreneurial journey began in 1974 when he and James established James-Furman & Company, acquiring the lease-underwriting division of their previous employer, TransPacific Financial Corporation. This venture later led them to manage Greenbrier Leasing Corporation for Commercial Metals Company. In 1981, Furman and James acquired Commercial Metals' leasing operations, formally establishing The Greenbrier Companies. Mr. Furman was also previously the Chief Executive Officer of GBW Railcar Services LLC and Vice President-Leasing Group of TransPacific Financial Corp.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary key risk to The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) is the cyclical nature of the railcar manufacturing, leasing, and services industry, which is highly sensitive to overall economic conditions and fluctuations in freight volumes.
Demand for new railcar equipment, utilization of existing fleets (impacting repair and parts services), and the attractiveness of leasing services are directly influenced by the health of the global economy, industrial production, and the volume of goods being transported by rail. During economic downturns or periods of reduced freight activity, customers such as railroads, shippers, and leasing companies may scale back capital expenditures on new equipment, defer maintenance, or reduce demand for leased railcars, thereby significantly impacting all of Greenbrier's operating segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) operates within addressable markets related to railroad freight car manufacturing, railcar leasing, and railcar wheels, repair, and parts in North America, Europe, and South America.
Manufacturing Segment (Railroad Freight Car Equipment)
- Global Railcar Market: The global railcar market, which includes freight cars, was projected to expand from $25,080.3 million in 2021 to $40,154.4 million by 2033, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%.
- North America Railroad Equipment Manufacturing: The North American railroad equipment manufacturing market accounted for approximately 32% of the global market in 2024. With the global market valued at USD 109.13 billion in 2024, the North American market size was estimated at around USD 34.92 billion in 2024.
- Europe Railway Equipment Manufacturing: The Railway Equipment Manufacturing industry in Europe, which covers the production of railway locomotives and rolling stock (including freight wagons), had a market size of €42.2 billion (approximately USD 45.45 billion) in 2026.
- Latin America Rolling Stock (Wagons): The Latin America rolling stock market generated a revenue of USD 5,049.5 million in 2024, with wagons identified as the largest revenue-generating product segment. The overall market is projected to reach US$ 9,097.5 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7% from 2025 to 2033.
Leasing & Services Segment (Railcar Leasing)
- Global Railcar Leasing Market: The global railcar leasing market size was valued at USD 11.43 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 18.20 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period.
- North America Railcar Leasing Market: This market is estimated to reach US$7.9 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.2% during the forecast period 2025-2031. North America dominated the global railcar leasing market with a market share of 72.44% in 2025. The U.S. market alone was valued at USD 7.29 billion in 2025.
- Europe Railcar Leasing Market: The Europe railcar leasing market size is valued to increase by USD 3.13 billion, at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2029.
- South America Railcar Leasing Market: Latin America has a smaller but steadily growing share in the railcar leasing market. Specific monetary values for the railcar leasing market in South America were not explicitly available.
Wheels, Repair & Parts Segment (Railcar Repair, Refurbishment, and Maintenance)
- Global Freight Railcar Repair Market: The global freight railcar repair market was valued at USD 22.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% between 2025 and 2034, expecting to reach around USD 82.2 billion by 2034.
- North America Freight Railcar Repair Market: North America remains the largest regional market for railcar repair in 2024, primarily due to an expansive and aging fleet requiring frequent inspections and maintenance.
- Europe Freight Railcar Repair Market: The freight railcar repair market in Europe is growing steadily, driven by investments in modernizing railcar fleets and a focus on sustainability and efficiency.
- Latin America Railway Maintenance Service Market: The broader Latin America Railway Maintenance Service (RAMS) sector, which includes rolling stock maintenance, is projected to reach approximately USD 4.2 billion by 2028, expanding at a CAGR of around 6.8% from 2023 to 2028. Latin America experiences moderate growth in the freight railcar repair market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlExpected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
Over the next 2-3 years, Greenbrier Companies (GBX) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Robust Railcar Backlog and New Order Activity: Greenbrier's substantial backlog of new railcar orders provides a solid foundation for future manufacturing revenue. As of Q1 2026, the company reported a backlog of approximately 16,300 units valued at $2.2 billion. New global railcar orders, including specialty railcars that command higher average selling prices, consistently contribute to this backlog and future revenue stream. Furthermore, strong demand is anticipated in the second half of fiscal 2026.
- Expansion of Leasing and Services Segment with Recurring Revenue Growth: The company is strategically focused on expanding its Leasing & Services segment. Greenbrier aims to double its recurring revenue by fiscal year 2028, a segment that has already shown significant growth, with recurring revenue reaching nearly $165 million over the four quarters ending Q3 2025, representing nearly 50% growth over two years. High lease fleet utilization, consistently around 98%, further supports this growth. The company plans to invest approximately $300 million annually in its lease fleet to meet ongoing demand.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiencies and Favorable Product Mix: While primarily impacting profitability, Greenbrier's focus on operational efficiency and a favorable product mix is expected to indirectly boost revenue. Initiatives like the rationalization of European facilities are projected to generate annual savings of at least $10 million, allowing for competitive pricing and reinvestment. The company has consistently achieved strong aggregate gross margins, partly driven by a favorable railcar delivery mix and a focus on specialty railcar orders which elevate average selling prices, thereby contributing to higher revenue per unit.
- Strategic International Market Expansion and Manufacturing Optimization: Greenbrier's presence and strategic adjustments in international markets, including North America, Europe, and Brazil, are crucial for its long-term revenue growth. The company's fiscal 2026 guidance includes approximately 1,500 unit deliveries from its Greenbrier-Maxion Brazil operations. By optimizing its manufacturing footprint and leveraging its global operations, Greenbrier aims to enhance market competitiveness and increase overall production capacity to meet diverse market demands.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- The Greenbrier Companies repurchased 303,000 shares for $13 million in the first fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2025.
- As of November 30, 2025, $65 million remained under the current share repurchase program.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2026, GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, issued $300 million of Series 2026-1 Class A and Class B Notes in a railcar asset-backed securities offering to secure long-term financing for its leasing business.
- The company has issued $242.4 million in new debt over the past three years.
- In a prior private placement, GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC issued two tranches of secured railcar equipment notes totaling $300 million (Class A Notes: $280,425,000 at 5.13%; Class B Notes: $19,575,000 at 5.30%).
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the last 12 months amounted to approximately $278.8 million.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company plans total capital expenditures of $205 million.
- Expected capital expenditures for FY26 include $240 million for investments in leasing and fleet management operations to expand the lease fleet, and $80 million for manufacturing expenses, primarily for maintenance with some growth allocation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GBX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 04302021 | GBX | Greenbrier Companies | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -12.6% | -7.3% | -19.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,064 |
| Op Inc LTM | 344 |
| FCF LTM | 230 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 23 |
| CFO LTM | 472 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 409 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -13.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.3 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 85.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $47.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/14/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $49.77 | $47.95 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.4% | -1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.0% | 36.7% |
| Downside Capture | 133.64 | 80.99 |
| Upside Capture | 20.04 | 64.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.2% | 26.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.91 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.95 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 1.27 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| Down Beta | -1.65 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | -9% | 17% | 38% | 53% | 68% | 185% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 33 | 69 | 126 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 239% | 119% | 50% | 21% | 86% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 31 | 56 | 125 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBX | 7.2% | 36.6% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.1% | 15.3% | 1.15 | 33.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | -4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 33.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBX | 3.0% | 42.7% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.7% | 17.4% | 0.57 | 48.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 41.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 19.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 18.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GBX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBX | 8.9% | 44.7% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 55.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 48.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 25.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 41.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/7/2026 | 2.9% | 10.5% | 6.4% |
| 1/8/2026 | -10.3% | -7.8% | 2.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -7.2% | -7.8% | -0.6% |
| 7/1/2025 | 21.1% | 18.0% | -5.8% |
| 4/7/2025 | -11.4% | -8.7% | -3.4% |
| 1/8/2025 | 3.8% | 10.1% | 7.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 16.7% | 17.9% | 28.8% |
| 7/8/2024 | -9.1% | -6.4% | -7.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -9.1% | -8.7% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 31.8% | 31.2% | 38.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -20.0% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 04/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/28/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 4/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Deliveries | 15,350 | 15,850 | 16,350 | -16.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 19,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.40 Bil | 2.45 Bil | 2.50 Bil | -17.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aggregate Gross Margin % | 14.8% | 15.0% | 15.2% | -7.7% | -1.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 16.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Operating Margin % | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | -20.0% | -1.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 EPS | 3 | 3.25 | 3.5 | -23.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.25 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Capital Expenditures | 380.00 Mil | 33.3% | Raised | Guidance: 285.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Capital Expenditures | 205.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Deliveries | 17,500 | 19,000 | 20,500 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 19,000 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.70 Bil | 2.95 Bil | 3.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.95 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aggregate Gross Margin % | 16.0% | 16.25% | 16.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 16.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Operating Margin % | 9.0% | 9.25% | 9.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 EPS | 3.75 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.25 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Capital Expenditures | 285.00 Mil | -10.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 320.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krueger, William J | SVP, COO, The Americas | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 50.00 | 6,000 | 300,000 | 2,963,100 | Form |
| 2 | Huffines, James R | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 44.84 | 2,500 | 112,108 | 623,725 | Form | |
| 3 | Felton, Wanda F | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 54.31 | 3,652 | 198,341 | 162,931 | Form | |
| 4 | Fargo, Thomas B | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 54.97 | 3,727 | 204,855 | 117,680 | Form | |
| 5 | Krueger, William J | SVP, COO, The Americas | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 48.00 | 4,000 | 192,000 | 1,570,272 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.