Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $4.35 | Market Cap: $313.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $4.35Market Cap: $313.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 214% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% Key risksPTLO key risks include [1] declining traffic and sales due to difficulty competing with heavily discounting brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -162% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 214% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% |
| Key risksPTLO key risks include [1] declining traffic and sales due to difficulty competing with heavily discounting brands, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Portillos (PTLO) stock has lost about 25% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing First Quarter 2026 Financial Results. Portillo's reported a net loss of $0.5 million for Q1 2026, a significant decrease from a net income of $4.0 million in Q1 2025. The company also missed analyst estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, reporting an EPS of -$0.01 against a consensus estimate of $0.01 and quarterly revenue of $182.62 million, below estimates of $183.27 million. Same-restaurant sales decreased by 0.1%, and operating income fell by 56.7% to $4.5 million. Following this announcement on May 5, 2026, the stock experienced a significant decline, trading down between 11.86% and 13.9%.
2. Weak Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Performance. The company's Q4 2025 results, announced on February 24, 2026, showed revenue of $185.75 million, which missed analyst estimates of $191.37 million. Furthermore, same-restaurant sales declined by 3.3%, marking the third consecutive quarter of negative comparable sales growth. Operating income for the quarter decreased by $3.5 million to $10.3 million, and net income fell by $6.2 million to $6.3 million. The restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margin also contracted to 21.8% from 24.5% in the prior-year quarter. The stock reacted negatively to this news, declining by 7.9%.
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1. Disappointing First Quarter 2026 Financial Results. Portillo's reported a net loss of $0.5 million for Q1 2026, a significant decrease from a net income of $4.0 million in Q1 2025. The company also missed analyst estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, reporting an EPS of -$0.01 against a consensus estimate of $0.01 and quarterly revenue of $182.62 million, below estimates of $183.27 million. Same-restaurant sales decreased by 0.1%, and operating income fell by 56.7% to $4.5 million. Following this announcement on May 5, 2026, the stock experienced a significant decline, trading down between 11.86% and 13.9%.
2. Weak Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Performance. The company's Q4 2025 results, announced on February 24, 2026, showed revenue of $185.75 million, which missed analyst estimates of $191.37 million. Furthermore, same-restaurant sales declined by 3.3%, marking the third consecutive quarter of negative comparable sales growth. Operating income for the quarter decreased by $3.5 million to $10.3 million, and net income fell by $6.2 million to $6.3 million. The restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margin also contracted to 21.8% from 24.5% in the prior-year quarter. The stock reacted negatively to this news, declining by 7.9%.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.9% change in PTLO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.65 | 4.30 | -23.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 731 | 738 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 2.1% | -36.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 19.8 | 19.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 72 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -23.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 30.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.6% | 18.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.6% change in PTLO stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.35 | 4.30 | -19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 728 | 738 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.2% | 2.1% | -49.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.9 | 19.8 | 67.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 68 | 72 | -6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.6% | 24.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -58.4% change in PTLO stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.34 | 4.30 | -58.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 711 | 738 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.2% | 2.1% | -49.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.1 | 19.8 | -10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 72 | -12.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -58.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -58.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.8% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -80.1% change in PTLO stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -77.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.62 | 4.30 | -80.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 587 | 738 | 25.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 2.1% | 14.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 89.5 | 19.8 | -77.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 72 | -37.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -80.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -80.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 66.6% | 36.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTLO Return | 29% | -57% | -2% | -41% | -52% | -4% | -85% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -13% | 40% | 6% | -26% | -18% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTLO Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTLO Max Drawdown | 0% | -60% | -13% | -46% | -52% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -39% | -7% | -20% | -37% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SHAK, JACK, WEN, WING, NATH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PTLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Portillos's stock fell -0.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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In The Past
Portillos's stock fell -0.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Portillos (PTLO)
Portillo's Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of fast casual and quick service restaurants in the United States. The company offers Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, Italian beef sandwiches, char-grilled burgers, chopped salads, crinkle-cut French fries, homemade chocolate cakes, and chocolate cake shakes. As of March 10, 2022, it operated in 70 locations across nine states. The company also offers its products through its website. Portillo's Inc. was founded in 1963 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.
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- Imagine **In-N-Out Burger**, but focused on iconic Chicago comfort foods like hot dogs and Italian beef, with a loyal regional following.
- It's like a **Shake Shack** that specializes in upscale Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef sandwiches, and its famous chocolate cake shakes.
- Think **Five Guys**, but with a beloved menu of Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef, and unique desserts.
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- Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages: Classic Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages are a signature offering.
- Italian beef sandwiches: Hot Italian beef sandwiches are a popular main dish.
- Char-grilled burgers: They offer char-grilled burgers as a core menu item.
- Chopped salads: Freshly prepared chopped salads provide a lighter option.
- Crinkle-cut French fries: Crinkle-cut French fries are a classic side dish.
- Homemade chocolate cakes: Their homemade chocolate cakes are a well-known dessert.
- Chocolate cake shakes: A unique dessert beverage made with chocolate cake.
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Major Customers of Portillo's (PTLO)
Portillo's Inc. primarily sells its products directly to individual consumers rather than other businesses. As a fast-casual and quick-service restaurant chain, its business model focuses on serving meals to the general public.
Based on the company's offerings and restaurant operations, the following are up to three categories of customers that Portillo's serves:
- Casual Diners and Individuals: This category includes individuals and small groups looking for convenient, high-quality meals in a fast-casual setting. These customers appreciate the menu variety and the efficiency of a quick-service restaurant for lunch, dinner, or snacks.
- Families: Portillo's menu, featuring items like hot dogs, burgers, fries, and shakes, often appeals to families with children. The restaurant provides a family-friendly atmosphere and menu options that cater to diverse tastes within a household.
- Fans of Chicago-Style Cuisine: Given its strong identity with "Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages" and "Italian beef sandwiches," a significant customer segment comprises individuals specifically seeking out these regional specialties. This includes former Chicagoans, tourists, and local enthusiasts who appreciate authentic Chicago-style food.
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Brett Patterson, President & Chief Executive Officer
Brett Patterson joined Portillo's as President & Chief Executive Officer in February 2026. He brings over three decades of leadership experience from large, national restaurant brands. Prior to Portillo's, Patterson served as CEO of Miller's Ale House, a brand owned by Roark Capital. He also held roles as Executive Vice President with Bloomin Brands and president of Outback Steakhouse, and leadership positions at Carrabba's Italian Grill, Steak and Ale, Bahama Breeze, and Ruby Tuesday.
Michelle Hook, Chief Financial Officer
Michelle Hook joined Portillo's as Chief Financial Officer in December 2020. Before Portillo's, she spent over 17 years at Domino's, where she was most recently Vice President of Finance for global FP&A and investor relations. She was also part of Domino's initial public offering team in 2004. Hook previously worked at Holcim and began her career as a senior auditor at Arthur Andersen LLP.
Tony Darden, Chief Operating Officer
Tony Darden joined Portillo's as Chief Operating Officer in December 2024. He has more than 20 years of executive leadership experience. His previous roles include Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Jack in the Box, President of MOOYAH Burgers, and Chief Operating Officer for Taco Bueno Restaurants and Sun Holdings. Darden also held leadership positions at Panera Bread and Metromedia Restaurant Group.
Keith Correia, Chief Information Officer
Keith Correia joined Portillo's as Chief Information Officer in April 2024. He brings over a decade of technology and digital transformation experience. Before Portillo's, Correia served as Chief Information Officer at Steak 'n Shake and held various leadership roles at American Dairy Queen Corp.
Jill Waite, Chief People Officer
Jill Waite joined Portillo's as Chief People Officer in 2019. Prior to Portillo's, she held several Human Resources and Operations roles within the retail, grocery, and fitness industries, with companies such as Sephora and 24-Hour Fitness.
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The key risks to Portillo's (PTLO) business primarily revolve around declining consumer engagement, persistent cost pressures, and challenges associated with its growth strategy outside its established core markets.
- Declining Same-Restaurant Sales and Intense Competition: Portillo's has reported a decrease in same-restaurant comparable sales and a decline in transaction volume, signaling reduced consumer spending and intensified competition within the restaurant industry. This trend negatively impacts profitability and market share. The company also faces challenges in effectively raising prices to offset inflation without further deterring customer traffic.
- Rising Operational Costs and Margin Pressure: Inflationary pressures, particularly concerning commodity prices (food, beverages, and packaging) and labor costs (wages and benefits), represent a significant ongoing threat to Portillo's profit margins. These rising expenses directly erode the company's profitability and limit its flexibility to maintain competitive pricing.
- Challenges with Expansion Strategy and Brand Appeal Outside Core Market: Portillo's has encountered difficulties with its expansion plans, including the halting of some due to economic conditions and concerns about potential brand dilution. There is a risk that the "Chicago-style" concept may have limited appeal or struggle to gain sufficient traction in new geographic markets beyond its traditional Midwestern base. This could lead to new restaurant locations underperforming initial expectations or taking longer to achieve profitability, thereby impacting future growth prospects.
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The addressable markets for Portillo's main products and services in the United States are substantial, primarily falling within the fast-casual and quick-service restaurant (QSR) segments, which also include a significant burger market.- The U.S. fast-casual restaurant market was valued at $124.50 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach $337.8 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.4%. Another projection indicates the U.S. fast-casual restaurants market size is expected to increase by USD 84.5 billion, at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024 to 2029, with the market projected to reach a value of USD 115.5 billion by 2026. Furthermore, the U.S. fast casual restaurant market is projected to hit $121.3 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market was valued at approximately USD 400 billion in 2024. It was also estimated at USD 242.84 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 347.35 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of around 3.31% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market size is also estimated to reach USD 311.99 billion by 2030. The U.S. QSR market is projected to reach USD 599.87 billion by 2032.
- The market size for Burger Restaurants in the U.S. is projected to be $177.7 billion in 2026. In 2024, the hamburgers segment held the largest market share of 38.96% within the U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market.
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Portillo's Inc. (PTLO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a multi-faceted strategy that includes expanding its restaurant footprint, increasing customer traffic in existing locations, implementing strategic pricing, and enhancing operational efficiency. Here are the key drivers: * **New Restaurant Openings and Strategic Expansion** Portillo's plans to continue expanding its physical presence by opening new restaurants, with a target of eight new locations in 2026. The company is strategically focusing on disciplined development, prioritizing unit economics, and exploring new market entries, such as its successful launch in Atlanta which demonstrated robust initial sales. Additionally, Portillo's is developing more compact "Restaurant of the Future" prototypes and new formats like airport and walk-up locations, which aim to reduce construction costs and improve profitability, thereby supporting accelerated unit growth in the future. Analysts anticipate revenue growth of approximately 7.6% over the next 12 months, largely attributed to these new restaurant openings. * **Driving Customer Traffic and Transactions (Same-Restaurant Sales Growth)** A primary focus for Portillo's is to boost customer traffic and transaction volume in its established restaurants. The company emphasizes reinforcing value and service to attract more guests. The Portillo's Perks loyalty program is highlighted as a crucial tool for driving traffic and enhancing value perception in both its core and newer markets. While same-restaurant sales have seen recent declines, management's strategic shift underscores a commitment to reversing this trend through transaction-driven growth. * **Strategic Pricing Actions** Portillo's has historically utilized menu price increases to contribute to revenue growth, such as the approximate 3.2% net effective price increase in 2025. The company continues to evaluate pricing options for 2026, balancing these adjustments with the goal of increasing transactions, especially in an environment with fluctuating commodity and labor costs. Effective pricing, coupled with a strong guest experience, is seen as a way to maintain revenue growth and combat inflationary pressures. * **Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Unit Economics** Portillo's has initiated a strategic reset to sharpen its focus on unit economics and operational excellence. This includes optimizing capital deployment, simplifying operations, and designing new restaurants for strong "four-wall returns." The development of efficient prototypes like the "Restaurant of the Future" aims to lower build-out costs and improve operational efficiency, which can contribute to higher profitability and support sustained revenue growth.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Portillo's Inc. announced a share repurchase program on March 1, 2024, to repurchase up to 8,000,000 shares for $114.96 million at $14.37 per share.
- This repurchase program was funded by proceeds received from a secondary offering.
- The equity buyback announced on March 1, 2024, expired in the first quarter of 2024, with 2,167,629 shares repurchased.
Share Issuance
- Portillo's Inc. completed its initial public offering (IPO) on October 27, 2021, issuing 23,310,810 shares of common stock at $20 per share, raising approximately $466 million in gross proceeds.
- The company completed a follow-on offering of 8,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $23.75 per share in August 2022, generating gross proceeds of $190 million in a synthetic secondary transaction.
- In February 2024, Portillo's announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of Class A common stock, expected to result in gross proceeds of approximately $116 million, as part of a synthetic secondary transaction.
Inbound Investments
- Berkshire Partners, a private equity firm, was a portfolio company of Portillo's Inc. and took the company public in 2021.
- Engaged Capital LLC increased its holdings in Portillo's Inc. by acquiring an additional 237,390 shares in September 2025, bringing its total ownership to 5,069,301 shares.
- In April 2025, Portillo's Inc. entered into a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital, LLC to identify and appoint a new director with restaurant operating experience to its Board of Directors.
Capital Expenditures
- Portillo's anticipates total capital expenditures in the range of $55 million to $60 million for 2026, which includes investments in existing restaurants, commissaries, and corporate initiatives, with plans to open 8 new restaurants.
- For fiscal year 2025, the company strategically reduced new restaurant openings from 12 to 8 units and expected total capital expenditures around $70 million (including renovations and other capex).
- In 2024, Portillo's expected capital expenditures to be in the range of $85 million to $88 million, with plans to open 10 new restaurants.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Portillos Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Why Portillos Stock Moved: PTLO Stock Has Lost 88% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 08/08/2025 | |
| PTLO Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,042 |
| Op Inc LTM | 137 |
| FCF LTM | 22 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22 |
| CFO LTM | 189 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 153 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -11.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.8 |
| P/EBIT | 10.1 |
| P/E | 19.6 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -28.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -42.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -21.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -35.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -72.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -131.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/21/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -67.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.53 | $5.88 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -22.2% | -26.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 64.6% | 55.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.49 | 1.28 |
| Upside Capture | 85.05 | 60.21 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.2% | 28.6% |
PTLO Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.38 | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| Down Beta | 5.57 | 2.77 | 2.37 | 1.38 | 1.59 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | 127% | 122% | 91% | 141% | 62% | 48% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 29 | 56 | 115 | 338 |
| Down Capture | -196% | 29% | 47% | 100% | 148% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 33 | 66 | 132 | 405 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -61.0% | 55.8% | -1.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 21.8% | 18.7% | 0.92 | 33.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 31.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 26.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 14.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -31.4% | 56.9% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 42.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -17.2% | 56.9% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.9% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 42.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 38.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | -7.9% | -9.7% | -8.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -23.3% | -17.3% | -28.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.7% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.2% | -9.2% | -22.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | 8.9% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -12.5% | -17.6% | -16.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | 15.6% | 1.5% | -4.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.6% | 1.8% | 5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 5.8% | 16.0% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -11.9% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.6% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -19.5% | -41.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Units | 8 | -33.3% | Lower New | Actual: 12 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Labor inflation | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -7.1% | -0.2% | Lower New | Actual: 0.04 for 2025 |
| 2026 Restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margin | 20.5% | 20.75% | 21.0% | -8.8% | -2.0% | Lower New | Actual: 22.75% for 2025 |
| 2026 General and administrative expenses | 80.00 Mil | 81.00 Mil | 82.00 Mil | 2.5% | Higher New | Actual: 79.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 55.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | -41.6% | Lower New | Actual: 98.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 3132026 | 5.18 | 286,000 | 1,481,480 | 2,156,175 | Form | |
| 2 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 8.00 | 2,000 | 16,000 | 522,536 | Form |
| 3 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 7.42 | 11,320 | 83,994 | 469,812 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 8082025 | 7.68 | 130,250 | 1,000,320 | 1,000,320 | Form | |
| 5 | Hook, Michelle Greig | CFO & Treasurer | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 7.67 | 40,000 | 306,800 | 1,330,016 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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