Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $4.97 | Market Cap: $358.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $4.97Market Cap: $358.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% Key risksPTLO key risks include [1] declining traffic and sales due to difficulty competing with heavily discounting brands, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3% |
| Key risksPTLO key risks include [1] declining traffic and sales due to difficulty competing with heavily discounting brands, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Portillos (PTLO) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Miss: Portillo's reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, for the period ending March 29, 2026. The company posted an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.01, significantly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 200%. Revenue also fell short, coming in at $182.62 million against an estimated $183.35 million. This financial underperformance led to a 16.4% decline in PTLO shares the day following the earnings announcement.
2. CFO Departure and Analyst Price Target Reductions: Shares experienced a notable decline of 16% following the news of the Chief Financial Officer's departure in early May 2026, coinciding with the Q1 2026 earnings release. This management change, combined with the earnings miss, prompted several analysts to lower their price targets for PTLO. For instance, on May 6, 2026, DA Davidson reduced its price target from $5.50 to $5.00, while Stifel lowered its target from $6.00 to $5.00, and Piper Sandler adjusted its target from $8.00 to $6.00. The analyst consensus rating shifted to a "Hold" from 9 analysts, with a collective 2026 price prediction of $7.28.
Show more
Portillos (PTLO) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Miss: Portillo's reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, for the period ending March 29, 2026. The company posted an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.01, significantly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 200%. Revenue also fell short, coming in at $182.62 million against an estimated $183.35 million. This financial underperformance led to a 16.4% decline in PTLO shares the day following the earnings announcement.
2. CFO Departure and Analyst Price Target Reductions: Shares experienced a notable decline of 16% following the news of the Chief Financial Officer's departure in early May 2026, coinciding with the Q1 2026 earnings release. This management change, combined with the earnings miss, prompted several analysts to lower their price targets for PTLO. For instance, on May 6, 2026, DA Davidson reduced its price target from $5.50 to $5.00, while Stifel lowered its target from $6.00 to $5.00, and Piper Sandler adjusted its target from $8.00 to $6.00. The analyst consensus rating shifted to a "Hold" from 9 analysts, with a collective 2026 price prediction of $7.28.
3. Broader Restaurant Industry Headwinds: The period covering fiscal Q2 2026 saw significant macroeconomic pressures impacting the restaurant sector. A Q2 2026 survey by the National Restaurant Association, released June 3, 2026, indicated that 36% of consumers reported spending less at restaurants compared to the previous quarter, with younger demographics leading this reduction. Consumers increasingly exhibited value-driven behavior, opting for less expensive choices and fewer add-ons when dining out. This trend of increased consumer price sensitivity and moderating fast-casual growth contributed to an uneven performance across the industry, putting pressure on restaurant margins.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in PTLO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.29 | 4.98 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 732 | 738 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.1% | -19.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 23.0 | 16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 72 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | -3.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.5% | 21.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.7% change in PTLO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.54 | 4.98 | 9.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 731 | 738 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.4% | 2.1% | -36.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 23.0 | 72.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 72 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | 9.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 10.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.7% | 22.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.3% change in PTLO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.67 | 4.98 | -57.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 721 | 738 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 2.1% | -46.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.4 | 23.0 | -12.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 72 | -11.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -57.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 14.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.4% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -77.9% change in PTLO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.53 | 4.98 | -77.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 609 | 738 | 21.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.7% | 2.1% | 27.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 110.2 | 23.0 | -79.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 72 | -31.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -77.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -77.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 30.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 41.1% | 36.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTLO Return | 29% | -57% | -2% | -41% | -52% | 10% | -83% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -13% | 40% | 6% | -26% | -9% | -7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTLO Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 53% | 47% | 38% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTLO Max Drawdown | - | -61% | -41% | -46% | -71% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -41% | -29% | -30% | -45% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SHAK, JACK, WEN, WING, NATH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PTLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Portillos's stock fell -0.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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In The Past
Portillos's stock fell -0.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Portillos (PTLO)
Portillo's Inc. (PTLO) operates a chain of fast casual and quick service restaurants across the United States. The company focuses on offering a distinctive dining experience rooted in Chicago-style cuisine, serving customers looking for quick, quality meals in an engaging restaurant environment. As of early 2022, Portillo's had established a presence with 70 locations across nine states.
The core of Portillo's menu features classic Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages, alongside its highly popular Italian beef sandwiches. Complementing these signature items are char-grilled burgers, fresh chopped salads, crinkle-cut French fries, and renowned homemade chocolate cakes and chocolate cake shakes. Beyond its physical restaurant locations, Portillo's also serves its customer base by offering its products for sale through its corporate website.
Portillo's primarily targets consumers across the United States seeking a unique fast casual or quick service dining experience. Its menu, heavily influenced by Chicago culinary traditions, appeals to both local patrons in its established markets and a broader customer base looking for quality, craveable food in an accessible format. The company's expansion into multiple states indicates a strategy to grow its market reach beyond its Illinois origins.
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- Imagine **In-N-Out Burger**, but focused on iconic Chicago comfort foods like hot dogs and Italian beef, with a loyal regional following.
- It's like a **Shake Shack** that specializes in upscale Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef sandwiches, and its famous chocolate cake shakes.
- Think **Five Guys**, but with a beloved menu of Chicago-style hot dogs, Italian beef, and unique desserts.
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- Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages: Classic Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages are a signature offering.
- Italian beef sandwiches: Hot Italian beef sandwiches are a popular main dish.
- Char-grilled burgers: They offer char-grilled burgers as a core menu item.
- Chopped salads: Freshly prepared chopped salads provide a lighter option.
- Crinkle-cut French fries: Crinkle-cut French fries are a classic side dish.
- Homemade chocolate cakes: Their homemade chocolate cakes are a well-known dessert.
- Chocolate cake shakes: A unique dessert beverage made with chocolate cake.
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Major Customers of Portillo's (PTLO)
Portillo's Inc. primarily sells its products directly to individual consumers rather than other businesses. As a fast-casual and quick-service restaurant chain, its business model focuses on serving meals to the general public.
Based on the company's offerings and restaurant operations, the following are up to three categories of customers that Portillo's serves:
- Casual Diners and Individuals: This category includes individuals and small groups looking for convenient, high-quality meals in a fast-casual setting. These customers appreciate the menu variety and the efficiency of a quick-service restaurant for lunch, dinner, or snacks.
- Families: Portillo's menu, featuring items like hot dogs, burgers, fries, and shakes, often appeals to families with children. The restaurant provides a family-friendly atmosphere and menu options that cater to diverse tastes within a household.
- Fans of Chicago-Style Cuisine: Given its strong identity with "Chicago-style hot dogs and sausages" and "Italian beef sandwiches," a significant customer segment comprises individuals specifically seeking out these regional specialties. This includes former Chicagoans, tourists, and local enthusiasts who appreciate authentic Chicago-style food.
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Brett Patterson, President & Chief Executive Officer
Brett Patterson joined Portillo's as President & Chief Executive Officer in February 2026. He brings over three decades of leadership experience from large, national restaurant brands. Prior to Portillo's, Patterson served as CEO of Miller's Ale House, a brand owned by Roark Capital. He also held roles as Executive Vice President with Bloomin Brands and president of Outback Steakhouse, and leadership positions at Carrabba's Italian Grill, Steak and Ale, Bahama Breeze, and Ruby Tuesday.
Michelle Hook, Chief Financial Officer
Michelle Hook joined Portillo's as Chief Financial Officer in December 2020. Before Portillo's, she spent over 17 years at Domino's, where she was most recently Vice President of Finance for global FP&A and investor relations. She was also part of Domino's initial public offering team in 2004. Hook previously worked at Holcim and began her career as a senior auditor at Arthur Andersen LLP.
Tony Darden, Chief Operating Officer
Tony Darden joined Portillo's as Chief Operating Officer in December 2024. He has more than 20 years of executive leadership experience. His previous roles include Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Jack in the Box, President of MOOYAH Burgers, and Chief Operating Officer for Taco Bueno Restaurants and Sun Holdings. Darden also held leadership positions at Panera Bread and Metromedia Restaurant Group.
Keith Correia, Chief Information Officer
Keith Correia joined Portillo's as Chief Information Officer in April 2024. He brings over a decade of technology and digital transformation experience. Before Portillo's, Correia served as Chief Information Officer at Steak 'n Shake and held various leadership roles at American Dairy Queen Corp.
Jill Waite, Chief People Officer
Jill Waite joined Portillo's as Chief People Officer in 2019. Prior to Portillo's, she held several Human Resources and Operations roles within the retail, grocery, and fitness industries, with companies such as Sephora and 24-Hour Fitness.
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The key risks to Portillo's (PTLO) business primarily revolve around declining consumer engagement, persistent cost pressures, and challenges associated with its growth strategy outside its established core markets.
- Declining Same-Restaurant Sales and Intense Competition: Portillo's has reported a decrease in same-restaurant comparable sales and a decline in transaction volume, signaling reduced consumer spending and intensified competition within the restaurant industry. This trend negatively impacts profitability and market share. The company also faces challenges in effectively raising prices to offset inflation without further deterring customer traffic.
- Rising Operational Costs and Margin Pressure: Inflationary pressures, particularly concerning commodity prices (food, beverages, and packaging) and labor costs (wages and benefits), represent a significant ongoing threat to Portillo's profit margins. These rising expenses directly erode the company's profitability and limit its flexibility to maintain competitive pricing.
- Challenges with Expansion Strategy and Brand Appeal Outside Core Market: Portillo's has encountered difficulties with its expansion plans, including the halting of some due to economic conditions and concerns about potential brand dilution. There is a risk that the "Chicago-style" concept may have limited appeal or struggle to gain sufficient traction in new geographic markets beyond its traditional Midwestern base. This could lead to new restaurant locations underperforming initial expectations or taking longer to achieve profitability, thereby impacting future growth prospects.
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- The U.S. fast-casual restaurant market was valued at $124.50 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach $337.8 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.4%. Another projection indicates the U.S. fast-casual restaurants market size is expected to increase by USD 84.5 billion, at a CAGR of 13.7% from 2024 to 2029, with the market projected to reach a value of USD 115.5 billion by 2026. Furthermore, the U.S. fast casual restaurant market is projected to hit $121.3 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market was valued at approximately USD 400 billion in 2024. It was also estimated at USD 242.84 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 347.35 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of around 3.31% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market size is also estimated to reach USD 311.99 billion by 2030. The U.S. QSR market is projected to reach USD 599.87 billion by 2032.
- The market size for Burger Restaurants in the U.S. is projected to be $177.7 billion in 2026. In 2024, the hamburgers segment held the largest market share of 38.96% within the U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market.
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Share Repurchases
- Portillo's Inc. announced a share repurchase program on March 1, 2024, to repurchase up to 8,000,000 shares for $114.96 million at $14.37 per share.
- This repurchase program was funded by proceeds received from a secondary offering.
- The equity buyback announced on March 1, 2024, expired in the first quarter of 2024, with 2,167,629 shares repurchased.
Share Issuance
- Portillo's Inc. completed its initial public offering (IPO) on October 27, 2021, issuing 23,310,810 shares of common stock at $20 per share, raising approximately $466 million in gross proceeds.
- The company completed a follow-on offering of 8,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $23.75 per share in August 2022, generating gross proceeds of $190 million in a synthetic secondary transaction.
- In February 2024, Portillo's announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 8,000,000 shares of Class A common stock, expected to result in gross proceeds of approximately $116 million, as part of a synthetic secondary transaction.
Inbound Investments
- Berkshire Partners, a private equity firm, was a portfolio company of Portillo's Inc. and took the company public in 2021.
- Engaged Capital LLC increased its holdings in Portillo's Inc. by acquiring an additional 237,390 shares in September 2025, bringing its total ownership to 5,069,301 shares.
- In April 2025, Portillo's Inc. entered into a cooperation agreement with Engaged Capital, LLC to identify and appoint a new director with restaurant operating experience to its Board of Directors.
Capital Expenditures
- Portillo's anticipates total capital expenditures in the range of $55 million to $60 million for 2026, which includes investments in existing restaurants, commissaries, and corporate initiatives, with plans to open 8 new restaurants.
- For fiscal year 2025, the company strategically reduced new restaurant openings from 12 to 8 units and expected total capital expenditures around $70 million (including renovations and other capex).
- In 2024, Portillo's expected capital expenditures to be in the range of $85 million to $88 million, with plans to open 10 new restaurants.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Portillos Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Portillos (PTLO) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Why Portillos Stock Moved: PTLO Stock Has Lost 88% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 08/08/2025 | |
| PTLO Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 959 |
| Op Inc LTM | 132 |
| FCF LTM | 18 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 21 |
| CFO LTM | 189 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 153 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -14.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.98 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/21/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -59.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.91 | $8.90 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -37.0% | -44.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 68.4% | 56.4% |
| Downside Capture | -1.67 | 131.83 |
| Upside Capture | -41.17 | -2.65 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -3.8% | 14.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.46 | -0.89 | -0.06 | 0.45 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Up Beta | 2.86 | 0.33 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 1.11 |
| Down Beta | -1.23 | -1.89 | -1.72 | 0.14 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| Up Capture | -48% | -139% | -15% | 43% | 1% | 30% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 16 | 29 | 57 | 107 | 331 |
| Down Capture | -167% | -4% | 35% | 59% | 124% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 33 | 65 | 139 | 409 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -57.6% | 56.3% | -1.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 18.6% | 0.28 | 26.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 14.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 22.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 11.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -29.4% | 56.8% | -0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.6% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 41.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 36.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 19.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTLO | -16.0% | 56.8% | -0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 41.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 36.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 19.1% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -16.3% | -28.0% | -30.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -7.9% | -9.7% | -8.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.3% | -9.7% | -5.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -23.3% | -17.3% | -28.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.7% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 9.8% | 2.9% | -8.5% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.2% | -9.2% | -22.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | 8.9% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 3.8% | 16.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.7% | -9.8% | -9.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.6% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -28.0% | -41.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -16.3% | -28.0% | -30.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -7.9% | -9.7% | -8.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.3% | -9.7% | -5.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -23.3% | -17.3% | -28.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.7% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | 9.8% | 2.9% | -8.5% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.2% | -9.2% | -22.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | 8.9% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -12.5% | -17.6% | -16.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | 15.6% | 1.5% | -4.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.6% | 1.8% | 5.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | -12.7% | -14.1% | -18.0% |
| 5/4/2023 | -10.7% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.6% | -8.3% | -5.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 6.5% | 3.8% | -4.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | 6.7% | 7.8% | -7.1% |
| 5/5/2022 | 2.5% | -7.4% | -8.0% |
| 3/10/2022 | -6.9% | -1.8% | -9.8% |
| 11/18/2021 | -10.7% | -19.5% | -41.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 3.8% | 16.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.7% | -9.8% | -9.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.6% | 21.4% | 34.8% |
| Max Negative | -23.3% | -28.0% | -41.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/18/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 10/22/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Units | 8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Labor inflation | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2026 |
| 2026 Restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margin | 20.5% | 20.75% | 21.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.75% for 2026 |
| 2026 General and administrative expenses | 80.00 Mil | 81.00 Mil | 82.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 81.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 55.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 57.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Units | 8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Labor inflation | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -7.1% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.04 for 2025 |
| 2026 Restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA margin | 20.5% | 20.75% | 21.0% | -2.4% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 21.25% for 2025 |
| 2026 General and administrative expenses | 80.00 Mil | 81.00 Mil | 82.00 Mil | 4.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 77.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 55.00 Mil | 57.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | -41.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 98.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 5122026 | 4.28 | 70,165 | 300,306 | 2,081,856 | Form | |
| 2 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 3132026 | 5.18 | 286,000 | 1,481,480 | 2,156,175 | Form | |
| 3 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 8.00 | 2,000 | 16,000 | 522,536 | Form |
| 4 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 7.42 | 11,320 | 83,994 | 469,812 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 8082025 | 7.68 | 130,250 | 1,000,320 | 1,000,320 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 5122026 | 4.28 | 70,165 | 300,306 | 2,081,856 | Form | |
| 2 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 3132026 | 5.18 | 286,000 | 1,481,480 | 2,156,175 | Form | |
| 3 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 8.00 | 2,000 | 16,000 | 522,536 | Form |
| 4 | Osanloo, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 8112025 | 7.42 | 11,320 | 83,994 | 469,812 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Eugene I JR | Family Trust | Buy | 8082025 | 7.68 | 130,250 | 1,000,320 | 1,000,320 | Form | |
| 6 | Hook, Michelle Greig | CFO & Treasurer | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 7.67 | 40,000 | 306,800 | 1,330,016 | Form |
| 7 | Kaiser, Kelly M | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 7.68 | 27,000 | 207,360 | 526,042 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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