Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.85 | Market Cap: $348.8 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Portillos (PTLO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.85Market Cap: $348.8 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PTLO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Portillo's (PTLO) stock experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report. Portillo's shares plummeted following its second-quarter 2025 earnings release, which revealed slowing same-restaurant sales growth and persistent margin pressure. The stock declined by 16.81% after the company maintained its fiscal 2025 targets but highlighted inflationary pressures.
2. Slashed Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance and Strategic Reset. The company's stock dropped further after it revised its fiscal 2025 outlook downward on September 10, 2025, citing challenging industry conditions. Portillo's reduced its same-store sales growth forecast to a decline of 1% to 1.5% for the year and cut its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections. Additionally, it announced a strategic reset, decreasing the number of new unit openings planned for 2025 from 12 to 8.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTLO Return | - | - | -57% | -2% | -41% | -47% | -87% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTLO Win Rate | - | 50% | 17% | 58% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTLO Max Drawdown | - | - | -60% | -13% | -46% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PTLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 283.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Portillos's stock fell -73.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -73.9% loss requires a 283.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PTLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Portillos
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 75 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 78 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -26.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -37.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -50.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -71.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -31.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -52.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -65.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -143.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |