Tearsheet

Portillos (PTLO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.85 | Market Cap: $348.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Portillos (PTLO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.85
Market Cap: $348.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, Premium Fast Casual, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PTLO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Portillo's (PTLO) stock experienced a significant decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors: 1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Earnings Report. Portillo's shares plummeted following its second-quarter 2025 earnings release, which revealed slowing same-restaurant sales growth and persistent margin pressure. The stock declined by 16.81% after the company maintained its fiscal 2025 targets but highlighted inflationary pressures.

2. Slashed Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance and Strategic Reset. The company's stock dropped further after it revised its fiscal 2025 outlook downward on September 10, 2025, citing challenging industry conditions. Portillo's reduced its same-store sales growth forecast to a decline of 1% to 1.5% for the year and cut its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections. Additionally, it announced a strategic reset, decreasing the number of new unit openings planned for 2025 from 12 to 8.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PTLO Return---57%-2%-41%-47%-87%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PTLO Win Rate-50%17%58%33%30% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PTLO Max Drawdown---60%-13%-46%-51% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPTLOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven283.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

Portillos's stock fell -73.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -73.9% loss requires a 283.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Portillos (PTLO)

Better Bets than Portillos (PTLO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PTLO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Portillos

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PTLOGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePortillosGa Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price4.97-308.6025.1824.68-24.93
Mkt Cap0.4-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM731-387282--387
Op Inc LTM55-2447--47
FCF LTM-15-8134--34
FCF 3Y Avg-5-5428--28
CFO LTM75-10751--75
CFO 3Y Avg78-8056--78

Growth & Margins

PTLOGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePortillosGa Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM2.4%-6.9%-5.3%--2.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.4%-1.7%4.2%--4.2%
Rev Chg Q1.8%-10.3%-6.6%--1.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%-2.5%-1.8%--0.4%
Op Mgn LTM7.6%-6.2%16.6%--7.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.4%-8.1%19.8%--8.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%-1.0%-1.3%---1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM10.2%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.3%-21.3%19.4%--19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.0%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.7%-14.2%9.7%--9.7%

Valuation

PTLOGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePortillosGa Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap0.4-0.40.2--0.4
P/S0.6-1.11.2--1.1
P/EBIT8.3-61.29.3--9.3
P/E18.9-200.820.2--20.2
P/CFO6.2-3.96.5--6.2
Total Yield5.3%-0.5%5.7%--5.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.7%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.1%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E1.4-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E1.4--0.10.7--0.7

Returns

PTLOGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePortillosGa Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn-5.2%--13.3%4.9%1.7%--1.7%
3M Rtn-26.8%--0.4%-29.4%---26.8%
6M Rtn-58.8%-18.5%-37.8%---37.8%
12M Rtn-54.6%-37.8%-50.0%---50.0%
3Y Rtn-75.5%-112.9%-71.6%---71.6%
1M Excs Rtn-5.1%--13.2%4.9%1.7%--1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-31.7%--6.1%-35.6%---31.7%
6M Excs Rtn-73.5%-3.8%-52.5%---52.5%
12M Excs Rtn-70.5%-33.1%-65.2%---65.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-147.7%-47.2%-143.8%---143.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,248,854
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.4%
Average Daily Volume3,222,760
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.42
Basic Shares Quantity71,908,534
Short % of Basic Shares19.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022302202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/26/2021