Nathan's Famous (NATH)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $102.0 | Market Cap: $418.0 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Nathan's Famous (NATH)
Market Price (10/26/2026): $102.0Market Cap: $418.0 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Online Grocery Platforms. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x Key risksNATH key risks include [1] its restaurant segment losing market share and [2] a significant reliance on key suppliers for its core hot dog and French fry products. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Online Grocery Platforms. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -3.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x |
| Key risksNATH key risks include [1] its restaurant segment losing market share and [2] a significant reliance on key suppliers for its core hot dog and French fry products. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 10/1/2026
Nathan's Famous (NATH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stock movement was primarily constrained by the pending acquisition by Smithfield Foods at a fixed price.
Nathan's Famous (NATH) was subject to a definitive merger agreement announced in January 2026, where Smithfield Foods offered to acquire all outstanding shares for $102.00 per share in cash. The deal's closing, initially anticipated for the first half of 2026, was postponed to the second half of 2026 due to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which was obtained on September 17, 2026. This established an effective ceiling and floor for the stock price around the offer value, limiting significant fluctuations during the period as the market anticipated the deal's completion.
2. Mixed financial results in fiscal Q1 2027 presented a balanced outlook.
For its fiscal first quarter ended June 28, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), Nathan's Famous reported an increase in revenues to $54.06 million, up from $46.99 million in the prior-year period. However, this revenue growth was accompanied by a slight decrease in net income to $8.83 million, compared to $8.93 million year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) marginally declined to $2.14 from $2.16. Income from operations also saw a slight decrease to $12.67 million from $12.79 million. These mixed results, showing top-line growth but minor profitability dips, contributed to the stock's stable, rather than volatile, performance.
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Nathan's Famous (NATH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stock movement was primarily constrained by the pending acquisition by Smithfield Foods at a fixed price.
Nathan's Famous (NATH) was subject to a definitive merger agreement announced in January 2026, where Smithfield Foods offered to acquire all outstanding shares for $102.00 per share in cash. The deal's closing, initially anticipated for the first half of 2026, was postponed to the second half of 2026 due to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which was obtained on September 17, 2026. This established an effective ceiling and floor for the stock price around the offer value, limiting significant fluctuations during the period as the market anticipated the deal's completion.
2. Mixed financial results in fiscal Q1 2027 presented a balanced outlook.
For its fiscal first quarter ended June 28, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), Nathan's Famous reported an increase in revenues to $54.06 million, up from $46.99 million in the prior-year period. However, this revenue growth was accompanied by a slight decrease in net income to $8.83 million, compared to $8.93 million year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) marginally declined to $2.14 from $2.16. Income from operations also saw a slight decrease to $12.67 million from $12.79 million. These mixed results, showing top-line growth but minor profitability dips, contributed to the stock's stable, rather than volatile, performance.
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Updated on 10/1/2026
Nathan's Famous (NATH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stock movement was primarily constrained by the pending acquisition by Smithfield Foods at a fixed price.
Nathan's Famous (NATH) was subject to a definitive merger agreement announced in January 2026, where Smithfield Foods offered to acquire all outstanding shares for $102.00 per share in cash. The deal's closing, initially anticipated for the first half of 2026, was postponed to the second half of 2026 due to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which was obtained on September 17, 2026. This established an effective ceiling and floor for the stock price around the offer value, limiting significant fluctuations during the period as the market anticipated the deal's completion.
2. Mixed financial results in fiscal Q1 2027 presented a balanced outlook.
For its fiscal first quarter ended June 28, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), Nathan's Famous reported an increase in revenues to $54.06 million, up from $46.99 million in the prior-year period. However, this revenue growth was accompanied by a slight decrease in net income to $8.83 million, compared to $8.93 million year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) marginally declined to $2.14 from $2.16. Income from operations also saw a slight decrease to $12.67 million from $12.79 million. These mixed results, showing top-line growth but minor profitability dips, contributed to the stock's stable, rather than volatile, performance.
3. Increased beef costs impacted profitability in key segments, offsetting revenue gains.
A significant factor contributing to the slight decline in profitability for fiscal Q1 2027 was the substantial increase in the cost of beef and beef trimmings. These costs rose by approximately 22% in fiscal Q1 2027, leading to a decline in the income from operations for the branded product program from $2.276 million to $1.330 million. This cost pressure hindered overall earnings growth despite higher sales in some areas, thus contributing to the stock maintaining its level rather than appreciating.
4. Stable performance in product licensing and branded product programs mitigated weakness in restaurant operations.
The company's product licensing segment remained a strong contributor to cash flow, with license royalties increasing to $13.59 million in fiscal Q1 2027 from $12.38 million in the prior-year period. Royalties from Smithfield Foods, Inc. specifically increased by 10% to $12.62 million. Additionally, sales within the Branded Product Program rose by $5.96 million to $35.04 million, driven by an 8% increase in volume and a 17% rise in average selling price. This stability and growth in core licensing and branded product sales helped to largely offset declines in company-owned restaurant sales, which fell to $3.95 million due to a 1% dip in average check, and a $0.24 million decrease in franchise restaurant sales.
Show less
Nathan's Famous (NATH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Stock movement was primarily constrained by the pending acquisition by Smithfield Foods at a fixed price.
Nathan's Famous (NATH) was subject to a definitive merger agreement announced in January 2026, where Smithfield Foods offered to acquire all outstanding shares for $102.00 per share in cash. The deal's closing, initially anticipated for the first half of 2026, was postponed to the second half of 2026 due to regulatory approvals, including clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which was obtained on September 17, 2026. This established an effective ceiling and floor for the stock price around the offer value, limiting significant fluctuations during the period as the market anticipated the deal's completion.
2. Mixed financial results in fiscal Q1 2027 presented a balanced outlook.
For its fiscal first quarter ended June 28, 2026 (fiscal Q1 2027), Nathan's Famous reported an increase in revenues to $54.06 million, up from $46.99 million in the prior-year period. However, this revenue growth was accompanied by a slight decrease in net income to $8.83 million, compared to $8.93 million year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) marginally declined to $2.14 from $2.16. Income from operations also saw a slight decrease to $12.67 million from $12.79 million. These mixed results, showing top-line growth but minor profitability dips, contributed to the stock's stable, rather than volatile, performance.
3. Increased beef costs impacted profitability in key segments, offsetting revenue gains.
A significant factor contributing to the slight decline in profitability for fiscal Q1 2027 was the substantial increase in the cost of beef and beef trimmings. These costs rose by approximately 22% in fiscal Q1 2027, leading to a decline in the income from operations for the branded product program from $2.276 million to $1.330 million. This cost pressure hindered overall earnings growth despite higher sales in some areas, thus contributing to the stock maintaining its level rather than appreciating.
4. Stable performance in product licensing and branded product programs mitigated weakness in restaurant operations.
The company's product licensing segment remained a strong contributor to cash flow, with license royalties increasing to $13.59 million in fiscal Q1 2027 from $12.38 million in the prior-year period. Royalties from Smithfield Foods, Inc. specifically increased by 10% to $12.62 million. Additionally, sales within the Branded Product Program rose by $5.96 million to $35.04 million, driven by an 8% increase in volume and a 17% rise in average selling price. This stability and growth in core licensing and branded product sales helped to largely offset declines in company-owned restaurant sales, which fell to $3.95 million due to a 1% dip in average check, and a $0.24 million decrease in franchise restaurant sales.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.4% change in NATH stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.60 | 102.05 | 0.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 162 | 169 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 11.8% | -4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.8 | 21.0 | 1.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATH | 0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 12.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.6% | 10.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.8% change in NATH stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.23 | 102.05 | 1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158 | 169 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.6% | 11.8% | -13.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.1 | 21.0 | 9.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATH | 1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.2% | 7.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.0% | 8.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in NATH stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.28 | 102.05 | -4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 150 | 169 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 11.8% | -25.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.4 | 21.0 | 14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATH | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 10.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.0% | 17.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.0% change in NATH stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.59 | 102.05 | 58.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 133 | 169 | 27.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 11.8% | -21.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 21.0 | 58.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NATH | 58.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.9% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 43.7% | 32.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NATH Return | 8% | 19% | 19% | 4% | 25% | 10% | 117% |
| Peers Return | 51% | -16% | -6% | -6% | -7% | 3% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NATH Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 38% | 35% | 42% | 46% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NATH Max Drawdown | -23% | -21% | -23% | -17% | -20% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -31% | -43% | -42% | -45% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, JMKE, REBN, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NATH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1514 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Nathan's Famous's stock fell -10.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NATH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1514 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Nathan's Famous's stock fell -10.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Nathan's Famous (NATH)
Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) is a well-known foodservice company primarily recognized for its iconic Nathan's Famous brand. The company operates a dual model, both owning and franchising Nathan's Famous restaurants. As of March 2021, its restaurant system included 4 company-owned units and 213 franchised units located across 19 U.S. states and 8 foreign countries, serving consumers directly with its signature hot dogs and other menu items.
A significant portion of Nathan's Famous's business is driven by extensive licensing agreements. These agreements enable the manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of a wide array of Nathan's Famous branded products in refrigerated consumer packages, such as hot dogs, sausages, and corned beef, through various retail channels including supermarkets, groceries, mass merchandisers, and club stores. The company also licenses its brand for other food items like mustard, salsa, sauerkraut, pickles, French fries, onion rings, and specialty hors d'oeuvres.
Beyond retail, Nathan's Famous serves the broader foodservice industry by licensing its brand for bulk hot dog and sausage products and directly selling Nathan's products to end users and foodservice distributors. Additionally, the company provides Arthur Treacher's brand fish fillets, further diversifying its presence within the food sector. This comprehensive approach allows Nathan's Famous to reach a broad customer base through both its restaurant system and its extensive network of retail and foodservice distribution partners.
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Imagine **Dunkin'** or **Starbucks**, but primarily focused on hot dogs and classic American street food. They operate some restaurants, but a major part of their business is licensing their iconic brand for products sold in grocery stores and other food service.
Think of it like the **Coca-Cola** or **Hershey's** of hot dogs – an iconic American food brand that you find not just in its limited restaurant system, but also widely available as licensed products in grocery store aisles and other foodservice channels.
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- Restaurant Operations & Franchising: Nathan's Famous operates company-owned restaurants and franchises its brand to other operators.
- Retail Packaged Meat Products: The company licenses the manufacture, distribution, and sale of refrigerated consumer packages of Nathan's Famous branded hot dogs, sausages, corned beef, and other meat products for retail.
- Bulk Hot Dogs & Sausages: Nathan's Famous licenses the manufacture and sale of its branded hot dogs and sausages in bulk for the foodservice industry and for its own restaurant system.
- Proprietary Spices: The company licenses the manufacture of proprietary spices.
- Licensed Condiments & Sides: Nathan's Famous licenses the manufacture and sale of various branded products, including mustard, salsa, sauerkraut, pickles, French fries, and onion rings.
- Licensed Hors D'oeuvres: The company licenses the manufacture and sale of miniature bagel dogs, franks-in-a-blanket, and other hors d'oeuvres.
- Arthur Treacher's Brand Fish Fillets: Nathan's Famous provides Arthur Treacher's brand fish fillets.
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Eric Gatoff, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Gatoff was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Nathan's Famous in January 2007, giving him a tenure of over 19 years in this role. He also serves as a Director of the company. Mr. Gatoff directly owns 1.92% of Nathan's Famous shares.
Robert Steinberg, Chief Financial Officer
Robert Steinberg serves as the Chief Financial Officer for Nathan's Famous, Inc.
Howard M. Lorber, Executive Chairman of the Board
Howard M. Lorber has been the Executive Chairman of the Board since January 2007 and a director of Nathan's Famous since 1987. He previously held the positions of Chairman of the Board from 1990 to 2006 and Chief Executive Officer from 1993 to 2006. Mr. Lorber also serves as the President and CEO of Vector Group Ltd., a diversified holding company, and is the Chairman of Douglas Elliman, one of the largest residential real estate brokerages in the United States. He was instrumental in transforming Nathan's Famous into a global licensing business and has a history of leadership across various industries. From 2017 to 2021, Mr. Lorber served as Chairman of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.
Wayne Norbitz, Director
Wayne Norbitz has been an independent director at Nathan's Famous, Inc. since 1989. He previously served as the company's President and Chief Operating Officer from 1989 to 2015, and held various operations leadership roles prior to that. Before joining Nathan's in 1975, he was the Director of Operations at Wetson's Corporation.
Leigh Platte, Senior Vice President of Sales
Leigh Platte is the Senior Vice President of Sales at Nathan's Famous, Inc.
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The key risks to Nathan's Famous (NATH) primarily revolve around its operational vulnerabilities, market dynamics, and reliance on key partnerships.
- Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Risks: Nathan's Famous faces significant risk from increases in the cost of food, particularly beef and beef trimmings, and other commodities and paper products, which can impact profitability due to inflation and other economic conditions. Supply chain disruptions are also a concern, potentially increasing costs and limiting the availability of critical ingredients. The company has recently experienced margin compression, with net profit margins decreasing, as the cost of hot dogs has risen faster than price increases.
- Dependence on Key Suppliers and Licensing Agreements: A substantial portion of Nathan's Famous's revenue and profitability is derived from its Branded Product Program and licensing agreements, with a particular reliance on Smithfield Foods, Inc. as its principal supplier and licensee. This concentration risk means that the loss or underperformance of this key relationship could materially and adversely affect the company's financial condition and results of operations.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Consumer Preferences: The quick-service restaurant and foodservice industries are highly competitive. Nathan's Famous operates in a dynamic market where it must contend with traditional and non-traditional competitors, including virtual kitchens and food delivery services. The company also faces ongoing challenges from evolving consumer preferences, such as a growing demand for healthier or plant-based options, which necessitates continuous menu innovation and adaptation to maintain relevance and market share.
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The clear emerging threat to Nathan's Famous is the rapid growth and increasing consumer adoption of plant-based and alternative meat products. As consumers increasingly opt for plant-derived hot dogs, sausages, and other processed meat alternatives, this fundamentally shifts the market demand away from traditional meat-based products that form the core of Nathan's Famous' restaurant offerings and licensed retail products. This trend could erode market share for Nathan's Famous in both the foodservice and retail channels as plant-based options provide a direct substitute for their core product line.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Nathan's Famous's main products and services:
Nathan's Famous Addressable Markets
-
Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) / Fast Food:
- Globally, the quick service restaurants and fast food market was valued at approximately USD 504.53 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 737.51 billion by 2032. Another estimate places the global quick service restaurant market at USD 1.04 trillion in 2025, predicted to increase to USD 2.5 trillion by 2035.
- In the U.S., the fast food and quick services restaurants market was valued at about USD 242.84 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 347.35 billion by 2035. Another report indicates the U.S. QSR market size was approximately USD 400 billion in 2024.
-
Hot Dogs and Sausages (Packaged and Foodservice):
- The global hot dog and sausages market was valued at USD 86.33 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 132.44 billion by 2034. Another source estimates the global market at USD 75.8 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 110.3 billion by 2030.
- The North America hot dog and sausages market was valued at USD 39.85 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 51.39 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. hot dog & sausage production market was estimated at USD 26.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 26.9 billion in 2026.
-
Processed Meat (including hot dogs, sausages, and corned beef products):
- The global processed meat market size was valued at USD 707.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1,253.77 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. processed meat market was valued at USD 128.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 235.60 billion by 2034.
-
Frozen Potato Products (French fries and onion rings):
- The global frozen potato market was valued at USD 69.81 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 87.65 billion by 2030. Another source estimates the global frozen potato market at USD 69.1 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 119.1 billion by 2035.
- The North America frozen potato market was valued at USD 23.73 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 35.02 billion by 2031.
-
Condiments (mustard, salsa, sauerkraut, and pickles):
- The global sauces, dressings, and condiments market size was calculated at USD 183.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to nearly USD 310.57 billion by 2035.
- The U.S. sauces, dressings & condiments market was valued at around USD 36.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 41.18 billion by 2030.
-
Arthur Treacher's Brand Fish Fillets:
- The global frozen fish market size was valued at USD 26.9 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 54.5 billion by 2032.
- The global frozen seafood market was valued at USD 36.89 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 57.67 billion by 2033. Other estimates for the global frozen seafood market include USD 44.86 billion in 2024, anticipated to be worth USD 86 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. frozen fish market was valued at USD 12.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 16.85 billion by 2032.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Nathan's Famous (NATH) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Product Licensing: Nathan's Famous is positioned as an asset-light business with its licensing operations serving as a significant revenue generator. The company anticipates continued growth through its partnerships, notably with Smithfield Foods and Lamb Weston, for the manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of Nathan's Famous branded hot dogs, sausages, and other refrigerated meat products through various retail channels, including supermarkets, groceries, mass merchandisers, and club stores. The product licensing segment demonstrated strong revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
- Growth in the Branded Product Program: The company expects to increase revenue through its Branded Product Program, which involves selling Nathan's products directly to end users or to various foodservice distributors. This program saw a revenue increase in fiscal 2025, driven by a higher volume of hot dogs sold and an increase in average selling prices. Nathan's aims to expand the market penetration of its brand by increasing distribution points across all business platforms, including Branded Products.
- International Market Penetration: Management has identified international market penetration as a key driver for future growth. This indicates a strategic focus on expanding the brand's presence and sales in foreign countries.
- Product Development Initiatives: Nathan's Famous plans to drive revenue growth through ongoing product development initiatives. This could include introducing new variations of existing products or entirely new branded offerings such as mustard, salsa, sauerkraut, pickles, French fries, onion rings, miniature bagel dogs, and franks-in-a-blanket.
- Strategic Pricing: The company has employed strategic pricing to mitigate the impact of rising commodity costs, particularly for beef and beef trimmings. With anticipated continued inflationary pressures, Nathan's is considering further price adjustments, which could contribute to revenue growth. The average selling price in the Branded Product Program increased by approximately 5% in fiscal 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- Nathan's Famous did not make any stock repurchases during fiscal year 2025 (ended March 30, 2025), but 98,116 shares remained authorized for repurchase under the sixth stock repurchase plan.
- During fiscal year 2024 (ended March 31, 2024), Nathan's Famous repurchased 1,101,884 shares at a cost of $39,000,000 under its sixth stock repurchase plan.
- In fiscal year 2023 (ended March 26, 2023), the company repurchased 35,434 shares of common stock for $1,892,000 under a 10b5-1 Plan that expired in September 2022.
Share Issuance
- In fiscal year 2024 (ended March 31, 2024), the company paid $362,000 for withholding taxes related to the net share vesting of 10,000 restricted stock units.
- During fiscal year 2023 (ended March 26, 2023), 50,000 restricted stock units were granted.
Inbound Investments
- On January 21, 2026, Smithfield Foods announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire Nathan's Famous for $102 per share in an all-cash transaction, valuing the company at approximately $450 million.
- The acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to shareholder approval and regulatory clearance.
- This acquisition converts Smithfield's licensing relationship with Nathan's Famous into outright ownership, securing perpetual rights to the brand and eliminating ongoing royalty payments.
Capital Expenditures
- Cash used in investing activities for fiscal year 2024 (ended March 31, 2024) was $313,000, primarily for capital expenditures related to the Branded Product Program and Coney Island restaurants.
- For fiscal year 2023 (ended March 26, 2023), cash used in investing activities totaled $522,000, mainly for capital expenditures in the Branded Product Program, Coney Island restaurants, and an upgrade to the general ledger and accounting system.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
NATH has outperformed 83% of its 36 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are EAT and CAKE. Restaurants ranks 10th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that NATH has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
57%
of 44 industry peers · -1.6% return
3Y
83%
of 42 industry peers · 76.0% return
5Y
83%
of 36 industry peers · 91.6% return
Restaurants peers with revenue growth within 4pp of NATH's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATH | Nathan's Famous | 8.4% | 21.0x | -1.6% | 76.0% | 91.6% | — |
| EAT | Brinker International | 12.2% | 15.9x | 43.5% | 459.6% | 309.5% | +218pp |
| CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | 4.4% | 28.3x | 96.5% | 281.8% | 187.6% | +96pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is NATH's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -19.6% | 51.2% | 88.8% | CVSA 258% · PRDO 244% · LRN 138% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -7.6% | 50.5% | 32.5% | PHM 155% · GRBK 154% · TOL 144% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 3.0% | 45.2% | 19.0% | RCL 238% · MAR 163% · HLT 150% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -5.9% | 59.5% | -0.4% | SGI 42% · MHK -35% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.3% | 13.4% | -4.1% | HD -1% · LOW -4% · FND -65% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -12.2% | 15.9% | -8.6% | MUSA 210% · PAG 114% · ORLY 103% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -15.1% | 30.2% | -15.3% | HRB 138% · FTDR 93% · SCI 42% |
| Footwear | 9 | 59.2% | 39.7% | -20.4% | DECK 28% · SHOO 9% · CROX -20% |
| Distributors | 4 | -16.6% | -14.4% | -25.3% | ARMK 110% · GPC 7% · POOL -57% |
| Restaurants ← | 37 | -12.6% | -3.3% | -26.4% | EAT 309% · CAKE 188% · TXRH 102% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 0.7% | 1.2% | -40.2% | ANF 308% · TJX 143% · ROST 119% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -19.3% | -12.3% | -41.1% | GOLF 74% · HAS 60% · MAT -20% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 3.6% | 7.5% | -41.5% | |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 6.5% | 71.0% | -41.5% | BBY 7% · GME -42% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 5.5% | -1.3% | -43.1% | LTH 144% · OSW 119% · PLNT -34% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -1.7% | 20.7% | -45.4% | RL 238% · TPR 225% · KTB 75% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -18.0% | -10.4% | -45.9% | MOD 1044% · GTX 200% · BWA 48% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -17.7% | -22.0% | -48.1% | MCRI 88% · BYD 14% · RRR 11% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -13.3% | 33.7% | -52.2% | EBAY 64% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 31% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 24 | -25.4% | -14.6% | -61.7% | ULTA 68% · ASO 46% · DKS 29% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -80.3% | -44.5% | -72.2% | GM 37% · TSLA 23% · F -3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -35.1% | -29.9% | -79.1% | GRMN 97% · SONO -45% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Nathan's Famous Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Nathan's Famous Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 345 |
| Op Inc LTM | 34 |
| FCF LTM | 43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 40 |
| CFO LTM | 64 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 63 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -10.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Product Program | 106 | 92 | 86 | 79 | 66 |
| Product licensing | 37 | 37 | 34 | 33 | 32 |
| Restaurant operations | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Corporate | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 162 | 148 | 139 | 131 | 115 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product licensing | 37 | 37 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| Branded Product Program | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| Restaurant operations | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Corporate | -14 | -10 | -11 | -9 | -8 |
| Total | 30 | 36 | 33 | 34 | 30 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 25 | 34 | 54 | 85 | 81 |
| Branded Product Program | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Restaurant operations | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| Product licensing | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Total | 49 | 59 | 79 | 109 | 105 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $102.05 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/26/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $99.37 | $99.61 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| Downside Capture | 27.62 | 22.44 |
| Upside Capture | 43.73 | 14.46 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 9.9% | 7.1% |
NATH Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| Up Beta | -4.95 | -0.76 | -0.51 | -0.25 | -0.17 | 0.45 |
| Down Beta | 1.22 | 0.66 | 0.89 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | 104% | 47% | 31% | 17% | 12% | 33% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 23 | 56 | 109 | 365 |
| Down Capture | 45% | 26% | 40% | 31% | 32% | 83% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 38 | 65 | 133 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATH | -3.7% | 20.0% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.1% | 19.2% | -0.35 | 15.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 6.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.8% | 28.5% | -0.11 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | -9.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.9% | 0.06 | 11.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.8% | 43.5% | -0.54 | 3.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATH | 13.7% | 27.5% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.5% | 24.1% | 0.14 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 30.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 28.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.7% | 51.7% | 0.29 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATH | 10.1% | 32.6% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 34.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 37.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 14.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 35.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.4% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 9.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| 6/9/2026 | -0.8% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.8% | -9.9% | -16.0% |
| 8/8/2025 | -2.0% | 4.6% | 7.8% |
| 6/10/2025 | 5.3% | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.7% | -1.6% | -2.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.3% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -3.8% | -9.9% | -16.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/7/2026 | -0.3% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| 6/9/2026 | -0.8% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.8% | -9.9% | -16.0% |
| 8/8/2025 | -2.0% | 4.6% | 7.8% |
| 6/10/2025 | 5.3% | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.7% | -1.6% | -2.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 10.8% |
| 6/12/2024 | -0.2% | -3.7% | 2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| Max Positive | 5.3% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -3.8% | -9.9% | -16.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 06/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 06/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 06/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 06/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 06/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 06/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/12/2020 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/24/2026