Nathan's Famous (NATH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $93.845 | Market Cap: $383.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Nathan's Famous (NATH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $93.845Market Cap: $383.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -11% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Online Grocery Platforms. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Online Grocery Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NATH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -7.5% stock movement for Nathan's Famous (NATH) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Decline in Q2 Fiscal 2026 Profitability: Nathan's Famous reported a notable decrease in its second fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025, with net income falling by 13.8% to $5.2 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) declining by 14.3% to $1.26 compared to the prior-year period.
2. Decreased Income from Operations and Adjusted EBITDA: For the second fiscal quarter of 2026, income from operations dropped by 22.1% to $7.5 million, and Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $8.28 million, indicating challenges in operational efficiency and profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NATH Return | -20% | 8% | 19% | 19% | 4% | 20% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 31% | 4% | 1% | 8% | -6% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NATH Win Rate | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 32% | 35% | 30% | 25% | 27% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NATH Max Drawdown | -35% | 0% | -20% | -5% | -17% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -3% | -15% | -10% | -14% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NATH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1051 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2249 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 729 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD
In The Past
Nathan's Famous's stock fell -36.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -36.4% loss requires a 57.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Nathan's Famous Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NATH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nathan's Famous
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 40 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 79 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 68 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 13.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Product Program | 86 | 79 | 66 | 34 | 58 |
| Product licensing | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| Restaurant operations | 16 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 18 |
| Corporate | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 139 | 131 | 115 | 76 | 103 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product licensing | 33 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| Branded Product Program | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Restaurant operations | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 |
| Corporate | -11 | -9 | -8 | -7 | -8 |
| Total | 33 | 34 | 30 | 26 | 27 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6102025 | 10-K 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6122024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/24/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6082023 | 10-K 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6102022 | 10-K 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |