Jack In The Box (JACK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $19.52 | Market Cap: $372.1 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Jack In The Box (JACK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $19.52Market Cap: $372.1 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 826% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -27% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% | ||
| Key risksJACK key risks include [1] significant same-store sales declines for both its Jack in the Box and Del Taco brands, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 826% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -27% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
| Key risksJACK key risks include [1] significant same-store sales declines for both its Jack in the Box and Del Taco brands, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JACK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Jack In The Box (JACK) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Challenging Fiscal Third and Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results
Jack in the Box reported declines in same-store sales and total revenues for both its fiscal third quarter (ending July 6, 2025, with earnings reported August 6, 2025) and fourth quarter (ending September 27, 2025, with earnings reported November 19, 2025). The company's diluted earnings per share for Q4 2025 significantly missed analyst expectations, coming in at $0.30 against anticipated figures of $0.46-$0.48.
2. Strategic Restructuring and Significant Restaurant Closures
The company continued its "JACK on Track" initiative, which included the closure of underperforming restaurants. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 alone, Jack in the Box opened 15 new restaurants but closed 47, with 38 of these closures being part of the "JACK on Track" program. Similarly, Del Taco, a subsidiary, opened 4 new restaurants and closed 13 during the same period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JACK Return | 21% | -4% | -20% | 22% | -47% | -50% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 20% | -4% | 20% | 2% | -10% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JACK Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 17% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 43% | 53% | 47% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JACK Max Drawdown | -76% | -14% | -35% | -10% | -51% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -7% | -25% | -7% | -11% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, YUM, QSR, WEN, CMG. See JACK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JACK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 380.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 216.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,679 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MCD, YUM, CMG, EAT, WEN
In The Past
Jack In The Box's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JACK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | JACK | Jack In The Box | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 77.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | JACK | Jack In The Box | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 77.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Jack In The Box
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,584 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,172 |
| FCF LTM | 1,564 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,404 |
| CFO LTM | 1,906 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,712 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 25.1 |
| P/CFO | 20.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack in the Box | 1,197 | 1,195 | 1,151 | 1,144 | |
| Del Taco | 374 | 497 | 317 | ||
| Company restaurant sales | 349 | ||||
| Franchise fees and other services | 7 | ||||
| Franchise rental revenues | 321 | ||||
| Franchise royalties | 171 | ||||
| Marketing fees | 158 | ||||
| Technology and sourcing fees | 15 | ||||
| Total | 1,571 | 1,692 | 1,468 | 1,144 | 1,022 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack in the Box | 375 | 381 | 311 | 327 | |
| Del Taco | 37 | 46 | 28 | ||
| (Gain)/ loss on COLI | 14 | 6 | -10 | 9 | |
| Losses (gains) on the sale of company-operated restaurants | 3 | 18 | 4 | 4 | |
| Other operating expense (income), net | -25 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization | -60 | -62 | -56 | -46 | |
| General and administrative and other unallocated | -100 | ||||
| Impairment of goodwill and intangible assets | -163 | ||||
| Acquisition, integration and strategic initiatives | -9 | -20 | -0 | ||
| Amortization of favorable and unfavorable leases and subleases, net | -2 | -1 | |||
| Gains on acquisition of restaurants | 0 | ||||
| Goodwill impairment | 0 | ||||
| Share-based compensation | -11 | -7 | -4 | ||
| Shared services and unallocated costs | -88 | ||||
| Total | 83 | 279 | 248 | 290 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | 7.8% | 35.3% | |
| 8/6/2025 | -1.6% | -1.4% | 7.9% |
| 5/14/2025 | -6.3% | -22.3% | -28.7% |
| 2/25/2025 | 11.8% | 6.5% | -15.3% |
| 11/20/2024 | 4.8% | 2.8% | -9.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.1% | 5.3% | -12.1% |
| 5/14/2024 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 6.2% |
| 2/21/2024 | -4.9% | -2.1% | -6.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -5.0% | -15.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.8% | 35.3% | 20.1% |
| Max Negative | -16.1% | -22.3% | -73.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11192025 | 10-K 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 7/6/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 4/13/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2252025 | 10-Q 1/19/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 7/7/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 4/14/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2212024 | 10-Q 1/21/2024 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 7/9/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 10-Q 4/16/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-Q 1/22/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 7/10/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/17/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-Q 1/23/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |