Jack In The Box (JACK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.87 | Market Cap: $378.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Jack In The Box (JACK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.87Market Cap: $378.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 929% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 5.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 5.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 929% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JACK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Jack In The Box (NASDAQ: JACK) stock has experienced significant movements from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by a combination of disappointing financial results, strategic corporate actions, and analyst reactions. The stock gained 2.26% on December 3, 2025, rising from $19.43 to $19.87.
Here are the key points for why the stock moved:
1. Disappointing Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings.
Jack In The Box reported its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 19, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30, significantly missing analyst expectations of $0.46. Same-store sales for the Jack in the Box brand decreased by 7.4% in Q4 2025, and Del Taco same-store sales also fell by 3.9%. This weak performance led to a notable decline in net income to $5.8 million, a 73.6% decrease from the prior year. The company's adjusted EBITDA also dropped to $45.6 million from $65.5 million in the prior year.
2. Below-Expectation Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance.
Following the disappointing Q4 2025 results, Jack In The Box provided a cautious outlook for fiscal year 2026, with same-store sales guidance ranging from -1% to +1%. The EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026 was also set at $232.5 million at the midpoint, which was below analyst estimates. This forward-looking guidance signaled continued operational challenges and potential margin pressures to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JACK Return | 21% | -4% | -20% | 22% | -47% | -53% | -72% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 12% | -8% | 22% | 46% | -11% | 102% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JACK Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 17% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 53% | 42% | 52% | 57% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JACK Max Drawdown | -76% | -14% | -35% | -10% | -51% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -53% | -14% | -29% | -8% | -10% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, YUM, CMG, EAT, WEN. See JACK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JACK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 380.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 216.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1679 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, YUM, CMG, EAT, WEN
In The Past
Jack In The Box's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/10/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JACK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | JACK | Jack In The Box | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 77.8% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | JACK | Jack In The Box | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.5% | 77.8% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Jack In The Box
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,828 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,302 |
| FCF LTM | 1,564 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,404 |
| CFO LTM | 1,906 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,712 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 19.2 |
| P/CFO | 20.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 7/6/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 4/13/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2252025 | 10-Q 1/19/2025 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-K 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 7/7/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 4/14/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2212024 | 10-Q 1/21/2024 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 7/9/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 10-Q 4/16/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-Q 1/22/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 7/10/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/17/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-Q 1/23/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |