Personalis (PSNL)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.48 | Market Cap: $663.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Personalis (PSNL)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $7.48Market Cap: $663.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -117% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -44% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 134% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -81 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -117% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -44% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -88%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 134% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PSNL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to today, November 18, 2025, Personalis (PSNL) experienced significant positive stock movement, driven by several key factors.
1. Strong Clinical Test Volume Growth
Personalis reported a substantial 364% year-over-year increase in clinical test volume for the third quarter of 2025, reaching 4,388 tests, primarily due to accelerated adoption of its NeXT Personal platform. This growth highlights increasing physician adoption and solid execution of the company's strategy.
2. Medicare Coverage for NeXT Personal Assay in Breast Cancer
The company announced receiving Medicare coverage for its ultrasensitive molecular residual disease (MRD) test, NeXT Personal, in breast cancer on November 10, 2025. This news led to a notable jump in Personalis' stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSNL Return | 236% | -61% | -86% | 6% | 175% | 29% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 3% | -9% | -5% | -14% | -9% | -2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSNL Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 8% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 42% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSNL Max Drawdown | -56% | -67% | -88% | -53% | -45% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -12% | -25% | -25% | -21% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BDMD, PTHL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PSNL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5385.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 148 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, BDMD, PTHL
In The Past
Personalis's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5385.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PSNL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Personalis
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 464 |
| Op Inc LTM | -42 |
| FCF LTM | -2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -41 |
| CFO LTM | 19 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -7.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | -17.7 |
| P/E | -13.7 |
| P/CFO | 54.9 |
| Total Yield | -5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providing advanced cancer genomic tests and services for precision oncology applications | 73 | ||||
| Sale of sequencing and data analysis services | 65 | 85 | 79 | 65 | |
| Total | 73 | 65 | 85 | 79 | 65 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providing advanced cancer genomic tests and services for precision oncology applications | -108 | ||||
| Total | -108 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -12.3% | -3.3% | |
| 8/5/2025 | -21.9% | -19.0% | -9.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.4% | -0.5% | -14.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -22.6% | -14.9% | -25.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 19.1% | 54.9% | 86.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 5.4% | -8.6% | -13.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 6.2% | 19.9% | 2.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | 21.5% | 22.6% | 53.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 9 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 5.7% | 10.7% | 28.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.2% | -8.6% | -18.2% |
| Max Positive | 21.5% | 54.9% | 86.5% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -19.0% | -38.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Chen Richard | CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER AND EVP | 7302025 | Sell | 6.57 | 452 | 2,970 | 817,998 | Form |
| 1 | Tachibana Aaron | CFO AND COO | 7302025 | Sell | 6.57 | 641 | 4,211 | 1,080,489 | Form |
| 2 | Tachibana Aaron | CFO AND COO | 5202025 | Sell | 4.95 | 1,291 | 6,390 | 817,240 | Form |
| 3 | Moore Stephen Michael | SVP and Chief Legal Officer | 5202025 | Sell | 4.95 | 1,675 | 8,291 | 317,790 | Form |
| 4 | Chen Richard | CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER AND EVP | 5202025 | Sell | 4.95 | 910 | 4,504 | 618,537 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |