Tearsheet

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (2/10/2026): $15.86 | Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (2/10/2026): $15.86
Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 104%
2   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5%
5   Key risks
ADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 104%
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5%
8 Key risks
ADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) stock has lost about 10% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Adaptive Biotechnologies' Q4 2025 Revenue Slightly Missed Analyst Estimates. Despite reporting strong year-over-year revenue growth of 51% for the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $71.68 million, the company's revenue narrowly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $72 million by 0.44%.

2. Projected Decline in Milestone Revenue for 2026. The company's guidance for 2026 indicates that clinical milestone payments are expected to decline by 56% year-over-year, as the full-year 2026 MRD revenue guidance of $255 million to $265 million includes only $8 million to $9 million in milestone revenue. This reduction in milestone revenue, which typically carries high margins, may have caused investor apprehension regarding future profitability contributions.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -9.9% change in ADPT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)17.3615.65-9.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)20525323.2%
P/S Multiple12.99.4-26.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)152152-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-9.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADPT-9.9% 
Market (SPY)1.5%17.6%
Sector (XLV)7.7%12.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 52.8% change in ADPT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)10.2415.6552.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19025333.4%
P/S Multiple8.19.417.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)149152-2.1%
Cumulative Contribution52.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADPT52.7% 
Market (SPY)9.8%26.5%
Sector (XLV)19.6%16.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 101.9% change in ADPT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252102026Change
Stock Price ($)7.7515.65101.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)17725342.6%
P/S Multiple6.49.446.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)148152-3.2%
Cumulative Contribution101.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADPT101.8% 
Market (SPY)16.0%35.6%
Sector (XLV)7.2%28.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 68.8% change in ADPT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120232102026Change
Stock Price ($)9.2715.6568.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)16825350.4%
P/S Multiple7.99.419.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)143152-6.2%
Cumulative Contribution68.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADPT68.7% 
Market (SPY)76.6%34.7%
Sector (XLV)21.9%27.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ADPT Return-53%-73%-36%22%171%-2%-73%
Peers Return-12%-58%25%13%74%-0%-8%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADPT Win Rate33%33%33%67%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%28%53%47%55%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADPT Max Drawdown-57%-78%-55%-52%0%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-68%-19%-39%-28%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTRA, GH, EXAS, ILMN, TXG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADPTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1860.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days

Compare to NTRA, GH, EXAS, ILMN, TXG

In The Past

Adaptive Biotechnologies's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1860.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT):

  • 23andMe for the immune system, providing genetic insights for disease diagnosis and drug discovery.
  • Imagine a 'Google Maps' for the immune system, charting its responses to disease to guide new diagnostics and therapies.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • immunoSEQ: A research platform providing high-resolution sequencing of T-cell and B-cell receptors to deeply profile the adaptive immune system for academic and biopharmaceutical research.
  • clonoSEQ: An FDA-cleared diagnostic test to detect and quantify measurable residual disease (MRD) in patients with lymphoid malignancies such as multiple myeloma and acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
  • Drug Discovery and Development Services: Partnerships with pharmaceutical companies leveraging Adaptive's immune sequencing technology to identify novel drug targets, biomarkers, and develop cell therapies.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, operating on a **business-to-business (B2B)** model. Its major customers and strategic partners often include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, academic research institutions, and clinical laboratories. Here are some of Adaptive Biotechnologies' major customers and strategic collaborators:
  • Genentech (a member of the Roche Group): Genentech has been a long-standing and significant collaborator with Adaptive Biotechnologies. This partnership involves leveraging Adaptive's immune receptor sequencing platform for drug discovery, development, and companion diagnostics, particularly in the immuno-oncology space.
    • **Roche Group Symbol**: RHHBY (OTCMKTS) or ROG (SIX)
  • Microsoft Corporation: While more of a strategic collaboration than a traditional direct customer, Microsoft's multi-year partnership with Adaptive Biotechnologies was a pivotal engagement aimed at mapping the human immune system to develop universal diagnostic tests for various diseases. This collaboration represented a substantial investment and utilization of Adaptive's platform and data capabilities.
    • **Symbol**: MSFT
Adaptive Biotechnologies also collaborates with other biopharmaceutical companies (e.g., Amgen, Takeda in the past) and sells its ClonoSEQ assay to a broad network of clinical laboratories, oncologists, and healthcare systems. However, Genentech and Microsoft represent some of the most publicly prominent and significant relationships in terms of their strategic impact and scale.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Illumina (ILMN)
  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Chad Robins, Chief Executive Officer, Co-founder, Chairman of the Board

Chad Robins co-founded Adaptive Biotechnologies in 2009 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board since. Before establishing Adaptive, he held various executive-level positions in medical technology, investment, and real estate companies. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a BS from Cornell University. Mr. Robins has been recognized as a Goldman Sachs Most Intriguing Entrepreneur and received the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year award. He is also the co-founder and a Director of Aortica Corporation. He has engaged in various stock sales, for instance, in February and March 2025.

Kyle Piskel, Chief Financial Officer

Kyle Piskel was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Adaptive Biotechnologies, effective April 8, 2024. He joined the company in 2015 and has since held ascending positions in finance and accounting, including Corporate Controller and Principal Accounting Officer. Prior to joining Adaptive, Mr. Piskel worked at Expedia Group and Ernst & Young, LLP. He is a Certified Public Accountant.

Julie Rubinstein, President & Chief Operating Officer

Julie Rubinstein serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Adaptive Biotechnologies. She joined Adaptive in 2011 and has held numerous leadership roles, overseeing functions such as Life Sciences Research, Clinical Diagnostics, Drug Discovery, Corporate Marketing, and Business Development. Ms. Rubinstein was part of the executive team that led the company through its initial public offering in 2019. Her prior experience includes worldwide commercial development roles at Pfizer Oncology, positions at Johnson & Johnson's Ethicon Endo-Surgery division, and a start as a financial analyst in Morgan Stanley's Global Health Care Group.

Sharon Benzeno, PhD, Chief Commercial Officer, Immune Medicine

Dr. Sharon Benzeno is the Chief Commercial Officer, Immune Medicine, and leads the Drug Discovery group at Adaptive Biotechnologies. She joined Adaptive in 2014. Before her tenure at Adaptive, she served as Senior Director at Elsevier Inc., a healthcare informatics company, and co-led the oncology business unit at Capgemini SE. Dr. Benzeno also held various management roles at AstraZeneca plc. She earned a PhD in Biomedical Sciences and an MBA in Finance and Leadership from New York University.

Harlan Robins, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer & Co-founder

Dr. Harlan Robins is the Chief Scientific Officer and co-founder of Adaptive Biotechnologies. He co-founded the company with his brother, Chad Robins, in 2009. Previously, he was the head of the Computational Biology Program at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) include:

  1. Financial Performance and Path to Profitability: Adaptive Biotechnologies has consistently reported financial losses and negative free cash flow. While the company maintains some net cash, its long-term viability and sustainability depend on achieving consistent profitability and positive cash flow.
  2. Competition and Reimbursement Dynamics: The market for minimal residual disease (MRD) testing, where Adaptive's clonoSEQ is a key product, is becoming increasingly competitive with other companies such as Natera and F. Hoffmann-La Roche developing their own tests. The company's ability to maintain pricing and secure favorable reimbursement for its tests will depend on demonstrating clear clinical outcomes and cost savings, which is crucial as MRD testing becomes more routine and payers may push for cost containment.
  3. Dependence on Innovation and Partnerships: Adaptive Biotechnologies operates in a rapidly evolving biotechnology landscape, necessitating continuous innovation to sustain its competitive advantage. Furthermore, aspects of its therapeutic development, particularly in areas like rheumatoid arthritis, are subject to licensing agreements and depend on the development and commercialization efforts of partners such as Pfizer.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Emerging advancements in **tumor-specific genomic profiling via highly sensitive liquid biopsy technologies (e.g., circulating tumor DNA or ctDNA)** pose an emerging threat to Adaptive Biotechnologies. While Adaptive's clonoSEQ test focuses on immune receptor gene rearrangements for measurable residual disease (MRD) detection in certain hematologic malignancies, the rapid development and validation of ctDNA-based assays from companies like Natera (Signatera) and Guardant Health, though currently primarily focused on solid tumors, demonstrate a powerful alternative approach to MRD detection. Should these tumor-specific genomic profiling methods achieve comparable or superior sensitivity, specificity, and cost-effectiveness in hematologic malignancies, or if they offer broader applicability and easier integration with other genomic insights, they could disrupt the market currently served by clonoSEQ by providing a different, potentially more comprehensive or accessible paradigm for tracking minimal disease.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (symbol: ADPT) operates in several key areas within immune medicine. The addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:

clonoSEQ

Adaptive Biotechnologies' clonoSEQ is an FDA-cleared test used for the detection and monitoring of Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) in blood cancers such as multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL).

  • The global minimal residual disease (MRD) testing market size was estimated at approximately 2.50 billion USD in 2024 and is projected to reach about 4.50 billion USD by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global MRD testing market at 1.70 billion USD in 2025, reaching 4.22 billion USD by 2033 with a CAGR of 12.00%, or 2.58 billion USD in 2025, reaching 5.64 billion USD by 2032 with a CAGR of 11.8%. Another report indicates the market reached 2.3 billion USD in 2024 and is expected to reach 5.5 billion USD by 2033.
  • North America is a dominant region in the MRD testing market, holding a 46.15% revenue share in 2024. It is also anticipated to hold 35.0% of the market share in 2025.

immunoSEQ Platform

The immunoSEQ Platform is a research-use-only service that provides sequencing of T-cell receptors (TCRs) and B-cell receptors (BCRs) for disease research, biomarker discovery, and therapeutic development.

  • The global immune repertoire sequencing market size was approximately 337.43 million USD in 2024, with projections to reach 370 million USD in 2025 and 842.44 million USD by 2034, driven by a CAGR of 9.64%. Other consistent estimates show the market at 366.11 million USD in 2025, exceeding 915.62 million USD by 2035 with a CAGR of over 9.6%.
  • North America held a dominant position in this market, with a 47% revenue share in 2024.

T-Detect Franchise

Adaptive Biotechnologies is developing a T-Detect franchise for T-cell based tests to diagnose various diseases.

  • T-Detect COVID: This T-cell based test detects recent or prior SARS-CoV-2 infections. T-cell responses can be detected earlier and persist longer than antibody responses. A specific addressable market size for T-cell based COVID-19 testing could not be definitively identified. The broader global COVID-19 diagnostics market has shown significant volatility, with some estimates indicating a decline in market size in future years. Therefore, the addressable market for T-Detect COVID is currently null.
  • T-Detect Lyme: This test was launched in June 2022 to identify T cells activated by Borrelia burgdorferi.
    • The global Lyme disease testing market size is anticipated to reach 18.57 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.2% from 2024 to 2030. Another report estimates the global market at 11.18 billion USD in 2023, projected to reach approximately 25.05 billion USD by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2033.
    • Europe dominated the Lyme disease testing market with a 48.22% revenue share in 2023, while North America is also a significant and growing market.
  • T-Detect CMV: This is a developing product for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) diagnostics.
    • The global Cytomegalovirus (CMV) diagnostics market was valued at 830 million USD in 2025 and is projected to reach 1.3 billion USD by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.9%. Another estimate indicates the global CMV tests market was valued at 731.24 million USD in 2025 and is on track to achieve 1.19 billion USD by 2032.
    • North America is the dominant region in the CMV diagnostics market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas, primarily centered around its Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) business and strategic advancements.

  • Continued Growth in clonoSEQ Clinical Volume and Expanded Indications: The company anticipates sustained strong growth in its clonoSEQ clinical test volumes. This growth is expected to come from broader-based volume expansion across all reimbursed indications, including multiple myeloma, ALL, CLL, DLBCL, and MCL. Further expansion into blood-based testing and increased adoption in community-based testing settings are also significant drivers. Adaptive Biotechnologies has raised its full-year MRD revenue guidance, expecting to deliver approximately 104,000 tests for 2025, exceeding prior growth targets.
  • Increased MRD Pharma Collaborations and Milestone Revenue: Adaptive Biotechnologies continues to secure and advance collaborations with biopharmaceutical companies, leveraging its clonoSEQ assay to assess MRD in clinical trials for new treatments for hematologic malignancies. This segment is a consistent contributor to revenue, with anticipated MRD milestone revenue between $18 million and $19 million for 2025. The company has a backlog exceeding $200 million in its MRD Pharma segment, indicating a strong pipeline for future revenue.
  • Enhanced EMR Integration and Market Penetration: Deeper integration of clonoSEQ testing into electronic medical records (EMR) systems is a strategic focus that is expected to accelerate adoption and streamline testing processes, thereby driving volume growth. Partnerships aimed at expanding access to personalized disease monitoring for blood cancer patients also contribute to increased market penetration.
  • Advancements in Immune Medicine Platform and Partnerships: While the Genentech partnership has concluded for the Immune Medicine segment, Adaptive Biotechnologies is progressing with its AI/ML modeling and T cell depletion antibody programs. The company's proprietary immune medicine platform and its ability to decode the adaptive immune system continue to be foundational for potential future diagnostic and therapeutic applications, informing drug development and enabling new partnership opportunities. Although T-Detect is currently for research use only, the underlying T-cell receptor (TCR) sequencing technology has the potential for future diagnostic and therapeutic product development.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

No significant share repurchase programs or activities were reported by Adaptive Biotechnologies from 2020 to 2024.

Share Issuance

  • In July 2020, Adaptive Biotechnologies announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering, selling 6,000,000 shares of its common stock at $40.00 per share, generating expected gross proceeds of $240 million for the company.
  • The net proceeds from this offering were intended to accelerate investments in TCR-Antigen Map activities, scale commercial and marketing activities for immunoSEQ Dx clinical products and services, and support research and development for drug discovery initiatives.

Inbound Investments

  • In the third quarter of 2022, Adaptive Biotechnologies signed a non-dilutive royalty financing agreement with OrbiMed for up to $250 million.

Outbound Investments

No significant outbound investments, such as acquisitions of other companies, were reported by Adaptive Biotechnologies from 2020 to 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $19 million in 2020, $62 million in 2021, $16 million in 2022, $11 million in 2023, and $3.66 million in 2024.
  • The significant capital expenditure in 2021 was primarily focused on operational expansion, including moving into a new corporate headquarters in Seattle, Washington, increasing warehouse space in the Seattle area, and opening a new office.

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Unique Key

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Mkt Price15.65211.49105.13103.34119.0019.11104.23
Mkt Cap2.429.013.119.618.22.415.7
Rev LTM2532,1179033,0824,2886421,510
Op Inc LTM-78-352-442-155798-141-148
FCF LTM-6394-2622471,0008288
FCF 3Y Avg-116-87-300107572-2-45
CFO LTM-61194-2233871,12289141
CFO 3Y Avg-110-17-271253740338

Growth & Margins

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Rev Chg LTM42.6%38.2%30.4%14.5%-2.3%1.9%22.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.1%40.2%28.0%15.5%-3.0%8.6%15.8%
Rev Chg Q102.4%34.7%38.5%20.0%0.4%-1.7%27.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23.2%7.8%8.9%4.8%0.1%-0.4%6.3%
Op Mgn LTM-30.9%-16.6%-49.0%-5.0%18.6%-22.0%-19.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-77.9%-27.8%-73.1%-7.9%6.6%-27.7%-27.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM28.1%-1.7%6.6%0.1%-0.6%1.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.9%9.2%-24.7%12.6%26.2%13.8%10.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-58.2%-5.5%-41.4%9.0%17.0%5.1%-0.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.9%4.4%-29.1%8.0%23.3%12.7%6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-61.6%-10.0%-45.5%3.6%13.2%-0.8%-5.4%

Valuation

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Mkt Cap2.429.013.119.618.22.415.7
P/S9.413.714.56.34.23.77.9
P/EBIT-35.2-95.0-33.3-20.318.3-31.1-32.2
P/E-30.0-93.8-32.9-19.825.9-31.4-30.7
P/CFO-39.4149.3-58.950.616.227.121.7
Total Yield-3.3%-1.1%-3.0%-5.0%3.9%-3.2%-3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.2%-1.4%-6.9%0.7%2.8%1.2%-0.4%
D/E0.00.00.10.10.10.00.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.10.10.1-0.20.0

Returns

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
1M Rtn-0.7%-9.7%-4.6%1.2%-15.6%-6.6%-5.6%
3M Rtn7.7%2.3%7.6%53.1%-2.9%15.2%7.7%
6M Rtn23.6%32.3%90.8%147.6%22.2%49.2%40.8%
12M Rtn103.8%22.8%136.8%97.3%13.3%58.5%77.9%
3Y Rtn77.4%394.5%275.6%61.3%-37.7%-56.0%69.4%
1M Excs Rtn-0.3%-9.4%-4.2%1.6%-15.3%-6.2%-5.2%
3M Excs Rtn2.6%2.8%5.5%53.0%-5.5%22.2%4.2%
6M Excs Rtn19.9%25.8%82.9%143.7%16.7%46.3%36.1%
12M Excs Rtn84.4%7.2%121.2%77.9%-8.0%18.9%48.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-9.0%304.4%161.3%-14.6%-110.5%-127.7%-11.8%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Minimal Residual Disease (MRD)1038766  
Immune Medicine689888  
Development revenue   5742
Sequencing revenue   4144
Total1701851549885


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$15.64 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.4 
First Trading Date06/27/2019 
Distance from 52W High-23.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$17.04$13.63
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-8.2%14.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility76.6%74.0%
Downside Capture108.20158.23
Upside Capture142.16208.82
Correlation (SPY)12.6%35.9%
ADPT Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.010.031.351.841.391.77
Up Beta-3.593.074.263.551.321.63
Down Beta-2.20-1.58-0.59-0.150.910.99
Up Capture386%12%161%385%420%2245%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days8192562120356
Down Capture149%39%124%150%124%112%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days12223663126385

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADPT
ADPT95.6%74.0%1.21-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.5%17.3%0.2628.2%
Equity (SPY)16.3%19.3%0.6536.0%
Gold (GLD)76.7%25.0%2.256.0%
Commodities (DBC)9.4%16.6%0.374.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.5%16.6%0.2120.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-27.3%44.7%-0.5817.1%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADPT
ADPT-23.8%78.1%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.8%14.5%0.3633.4%
Equity (SPY)14.1%17.0%0.6644.2%
Gold (GLD)22.1%16.9%1.0610.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.3%18.9%0.485.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%18.8%0.1939.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.4%57.9%0.4522.1%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ADPT
ADPT-9.2%76.9%0.15-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.8%16.5%0.5433.0%
Equity (SPY)15.7%17.9%0.7541.0%
Gold (GLD)15.7%15.5%0.849.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%17.6%0.398.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%20.7%0.2733.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.8%66.7%1.0822.9%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 11520260.1%
Average Daily Volume1.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity152.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-11.5%-17.6%-15.0%
8/5/20255.8%14.6%17.8%
5/1/202533.7%26.0%29.8%
2/11/2025-3.2%7.3%-8.1%
11/7/20243.4%-0.9%14.4%
8/1/2024-3.4%-1.1%5.6%
5/7/20242.3%27.3%25.4%
2/14/20240.5%-1.5%-17.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141013
# Negative101411
Median Positive5.5%14.7%10.1%
Median Negative-5.9%-6.6%-15.0%
Max Positive33.7%27.6%29.8%
Max Negative-18.2%-29.8%-33.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202403/03/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/15/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Lo, FrancisChief People OfficerDirectSell106202616.083,12550,2505,080,926Form
2Lo, FrancisChief People OfficerDirectSell1229202517.504,39476,8955,529,615Form
3Lo, FrancisChief People OfficerDirectSell1217202515.57113,8901,773,2674,919,777Form
4Hershberg, Robert DirectSell1212202516.0022,968367,488747,552Form
5Benzeno, SharonChief Commercial Ofc Imm MedDirectSell1208202516.8512,604212,3775,000,928Form