Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.19 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.19Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 172% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 172% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADPT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) experienced significant stock movement leading up to today, December 4, 2025. The company's stock has surged over 200% in the past year. However, focusing on the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to today, several factors contributed to notable changes, though a precise 30% movement within this exact timeframe and its specific causes are complex and influenced by a combination of these points.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Adaptive Biotechnologies reported impressive financial results for Q3 2025, beating market expectations. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06 significantly outperformed the forecasted -$0.17, and revenue reached $94 million, surpassing the anticipated $60.48 million by 55.37%. This strong performance reversed an eight-year loss streak and included a 102.4% year-over-year revenue increase. The minimal residual disease (MRD) business achieved profitability, with revenue surging 52% year-over-year.
2. Raised Financial Guidance: Following the strong Q3 2025 results, Adaptive Biotechnologies raised its full-year 2025 MRD revenue guidance to between $202 million and $207 million, up from the previous range of $190 million to $200 million. The company also narrowed its operating expenses guidance and improved its cash burn guidance, signaling improved financial discipline and a positive outlook for future growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADPT Return | 98% | -53% | -73% | -36% | 22% | 212% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADPT Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADPT Max Drawdown | -43% | -57% | -78% | -55% | -52% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADPT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1860.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Adaptive Biotechnologies's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1860.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Notes | |||
| Is Adaptive Biotechnologies Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| ADPT Surges 22% In A Single Month: Where Does It Rank Among Competitors? | |||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 10th, 2025 | ||
| ADPT Up 22% in One Month: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals? | August 22nd, 2025 | ||
| ADPT Stock Down -15% after 7-Day Loss Streak | July 22nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADPT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Adaptive Biotechnologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.5 |
| Rev LTM | 253 |
| Op Inc LTM | -78 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 26.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 56.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -15.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -20.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.5 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| P/EBIT | -5.6 |
| P/E | -0.7 |
| P/CFO | -5.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 86.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 80.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |