Tearsheet

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.955 | Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.955
Market Cap: $2.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147%
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%
5  Key risks
ADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%
7 Key risks
ADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADPT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) experienced a significant stock movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, with a one-month return reflecting a decrease of approximately 20.92% as of November 14, 2025. Several factors contributed to this notable shift: 1. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Immune Medicine Segment Decline. While Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a substantial overall revenue of $93.97 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 102% increase year-over-year, this figure included a significant $33.7 million from the full amortization of payments related to the Genentech Agreement. Excluding this one-time revenue, the core Immune Medicine segment experienced a 32% decrease in revenue compared to the prior year's third quarter, indicating underlying weakness in this business area.

2. Termination of Genentech Agreement. The termination of the collaboration agreement with Genentech in August 2025, despite contributing to short-term revenue recognition through amortization, likely raised investor concerns about the long-term prospects and strategic direction of Adaptive's Immune Medicine business. This event may have prompted a re-evaluation of the company's future revenue streams and market position.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADPT Return98%-53%-73%-36%22%166%-47%
Peers Return80%-12%-58%25%13%72%63%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADPT Win Rate58%33%33%33%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%28%53%47%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADPT Max Drawdown-43%-57%-78%-55%-52%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-20%-68%-19%-39%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NTRA, GH, EXAS, ILMN, TXG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADPTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1860.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Adaptive Biotechnologies's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1860.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

Better Bets than Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADPT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adaptive Biotechnologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Mkt Price16.12225.4297.45101.61129.5715.7499.53
Mkt Cap2.530.912.219.219.82.015.7
Rev LTM2532,1179033,0824,2886421,510
Op Inc LTM-78-352-442-155798-141-148
FCF LTM-6394-2622471,0008288
FCF 3Y Avg-116-87-300107572-2-45
CFO LTM-61194-2233871,12289141
CFO 3Y Avg-110-17-271253740338

Growth & Margins

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Rev Chg LTM42.6%38.2%30.4%14.5%-2.3%1.9%22.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.1%40.2%28.0%15.5%-3.0%8.6%15.8%
Rev Chg Q102.4%34.7%38.5%20.0%0.4%-1.7%27.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23.2%7.8%8.9%4.8%0.1%-0.4%6.3%
Op Mgn LTM-30.9%-16.6%-49.0%-5.0%18.6%-22.0%-19.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-77.9%-27.8%-73.1%-7.9%6.6%-27.7%-27.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM28.1%-1.7%6.6%0.1%-0.6%1.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.9%9.2%-24.7%12.6%26.2%13.8%10.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-58.2%-5.5%-41.4%9.0%17.0%5.1%-0.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.9%4.4%-29.1%8.0%23.3%12.7%6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-61.6%-10.0%-45.5%3.6%13.2%-0.8%-5.4%

Valuation

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
Mkt Cap2.530.912.219.219.82.015.7
P/S9.010.48.63.43.42.36.0
P/EBIT-33.6-72.3-19.8-10.714.6-19.0-19.4
P/E-28.6-71.4-19.6-10.520.7-19.2-19.4
P/CFO-37.7113.6-35.026.813.016.614.8
Total Yield-3.5%-1.4%-5.1%-9.5%4.8%-5.2%-4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.2%-2.0%-7.8%1.0%3.4%1.4%-0.5%
D/E0.00.00.20.20.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.10.10.1-0.30.0

Returns

ADPTNTRAGHEXASILMNTXGMedian
NameAdaptive.Natera Guardant.Exact Sc.Illumina 10x Geno. 
1M Rtn17.6%9.4%1.0%51.3%7.9%0.3%8.7%
3M Rtn25.7%28.5%70.4%94.0%28.5%22.4%28.5%
6M Rtn54.0%31.8%92.7%94.1%43.6%44.8%49.4%
12M Rtn147.2%34.0%179.7%68.3%-9.5%7.0%51.2%
3Y Rtn101.2%420.4%224.2%95.7%-33.2%-55.8%98.5%
1M Excs Rtn16.8%8.7%0.3%50.6%7.2%-0.4%7.9%
3M Excs Rtn15.7%24.0%64.4%88.3%24.4%17.3%24.2%
6M Excs Rtn41.6%19.5%80.3%81.8%31.2%32.5%37.0%
12M Excs Rtn144.8%24.3%169.3%54.8%-21.0%-0.2%39.5%
3Y Excs Rtn18.6%406.3%43.6%55.2%-104.5%-123.6%31.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Minimal Residual Disease (MRD)1038766  
Immune Medicine689888  
Development revenue   5742
Sequencing revenue   4144
Total1701851549885


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,403,303
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.3%
Average Daily Volume2,775,932
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.75
Basic Shares Quantity152,432,307
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-11.5%-17.6%-15.0%
8/5/20255.8%14.6%17.8%
5/1/202533.7%26.0%29.8%
2/11/2025-3.2%7.3%-8.1%
11/7/20243.4%-0.9%14.4%
8/1/2024-3.4%-1.1%5.6%
5/7/20242.3%27.3%25.4%
2/14/20240.5%-1.5%-17.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131013
# Negative121512
Median Positive5.2%11.9%10.1%
Median Negative-4.8%-6.1%-15.0%
Max Positive33.7%27.6%29.8%
Max Negative-18.2%-29.8%-33.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021