Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.955 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.955Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% | |
| Key risksADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 147% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7% |
| Key risksADPT key risks include [1] a history of financial losses and an unproven path to profitability, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADPT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) experienced a significant stock movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, with a one-month return reflecting a decrease of approximately 20.92% as of November 14, 2025. Several factors contributed to this notable shift:
1. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Immune Medicine Segment Decline.
While Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a substantial overall revenue of $93.97 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 102% increase year-over-year, this figure included a significant $33.7 million from the full amortization of payments related to the Genentech Agreement. Excluding this one-time revenue, the core Immune Medicine segment experienced a 32% decrease in revenue compared to the prior year's third quarter, indicating underlying weakness in this business area.
2. Termination of Genentech Agreement.
The termination of the collaboration agreement with Genentech in August 2025, despite contributing to short-term revenue recognition through amortization, likely raised investor concerns about the long-term prospects and strategic direction of Adaptive's Immune Medicine business. This event may have prompted a re-evaluation of the company's future revenue streams and market position.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADPT Return | 98% | -53% | -73% | -36% | 22% | 166% | -47% |
| Peers Return | 80% | -12% | -58% | 25% | 13% | 72% | 63% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADPT Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 28% | 53% | 47% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADPT Max Drawdown | -43% | -57% | -78% | -55% | -52% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -20% | -68% | -19% | -39% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NTRA, GH, EXAS, ILMN, TXG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADPT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1860.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Adaptive Biotechnologies's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1860.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Notes | |||
| With Adaptive Biotechnologies Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| ADPT Surges 22% In A Single Month: Where Does It Rank Among Competitors? | |||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 10th, 2025 | ||
| ADPT Up 22% in One Month: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals? | August 22nd, 2025 | ||
| ADPT Stock Down -15% after 7-Day Loss Streak | July 22nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADPT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Adaptive Biotechnologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,510 |
| Op Inc LTM | -148 |
| FCF LTM | 88 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -45 |
| CFO LTM | 141 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -27.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | -19.4 |
| P/E | -19.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | -4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 51.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 24.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 39.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -11.5% | -17.6% | -15.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | 5.8% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 33.7% | 26.0% | 29.8% |
| 2/11/2025 | -3.2% | 7.3% | -8.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.4% | -0.9% | 14.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -3.4% | -1.1% | 5.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 2.3% | 27.3% | 25.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | 0.5% | -1.5% | -17.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -6.1% | -15.0% |
| Max Positive | 33.7% | 27.6% | 29.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -29.8% | -33.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |