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Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.19 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.19
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 172%
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
3  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -31%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 172%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADPT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) experienced significant stock movement leading up to today, December 4, 2025. The company's stock has surged over 200% in the past year. However, focusing on the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to today, several factors contributed to notable changes, though a precise 30% movement within this exact timeframe and its specific causes are complex and influenced by a combination of these points.

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Adaptive Biotechnologies reported impressive financial results for Q3 2025, beating market expectations. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06 significantly outperformed the forecasted -$0.17, and revenue reached $94 million, surpassing the anticipated $60.48 million by 55.37%. This strong performance reversed an eight-year loss streak and included a 102.4% year-over-year revenue increase. The minimal residual disease (MRD) business achieved profitability, with revenue surging 52% year-over-year.

2. Raised Financial Guidance: Following the strong Q3 2025 results, Adaptive Biotechnologies raised its full-year 2025 MRD revenue guidance to between $202 million and $207 million, up from the previous range of $190 million to $200 million. The company also narrowed its operating expenses guidance and improved its cash burn guidance, signaling improved financial discipline and a positive outlook for future growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADPT Return98%-53%-73%-36%22%212%-38%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADPT Win Rate58%33%33%33%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADPT Max Drawdown-43%-57%-78%-55%-52%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADPTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1860.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven52 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Adaptive Biotechnologies's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/22/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1860.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

Better Bets than Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADPT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Adaptive Biotechnologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADPTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAdaptive.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price17.13463.13-2.541.07-9.83
Mkt Cap2.6118.4----60.5
Rev LTM25311,723-0--253
Op Inc LTM-78-92--5---78
FCF LTM-633,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-1162,064--10---10
CFO LTM-613,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-1102,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

ADPTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAdaptive.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM42.6%10.3%----26.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.1%10.5%----13.3%
Rev Chg Q102.4%11.0%----56.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23.2%2.7%----12.9%
Op Mgn LTM-30.9%-0.8%-----15.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-77.9%26.2%-----25.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM28.1%1.0%----14.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-23.9%31.7%----3.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-58.2%23.1%-----17.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-24.9%28.5%----1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-61.6%19.8%-----20.9%

Valuation

ADPTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAdaptive.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap2.6118.4----60.5
P/S9.08.5----8.8
P/EBIT-33.622.4-----5.6
P/E-28.627.2-----0.7
P/CFO-37.726.9-----5.4
Total Yield-3.5%3.7%----0.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.2%2.3%-----5.5%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-----0.1

Returns

ADPTVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameAdaptive.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn-1.2%8.7%----3.8%
3M Rtn33.3%16.8%----25.0%
6M Rtn71.6%3.9%----37.8%
12M Rtn171.9%1.3%----86.6%
3Y Rtn91.2%44.1%----67.6%
1M Excs Rtn-1.2%8.7%----3.8%
3M Excs Rtn26.2%11.3%----18.8%
6M Excs Rtn56.9%-10.8%----23.0%
12M Excs Rtn174.8%-14.6%----80.1%
3Y Excs Rtn37.6%-25.9%----5.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Minimal Residual Disease (MRD)1038766  
Immune Medicine689888  
Development revenue   5742
Sequencing revenue   4144
Total1701851549885


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,368,382
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202515.1%
Average Daily Volume2,082,975
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.98
Basic Shares Quantity152,432,307
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021