Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 23%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PRG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Consolidated revenues for the third quarter of 2025 decreased by 1.8% to $595.1 million compared to the same period in the prior year.

2. GAAP net earnings significantly declined to $33.1 million in the third quarter of 2025, a substantial drop from $84.0 million in the prior year, though the prior year included a non-cash tax benefit.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PRG Return--16%-63%83%38%-29%-43%
Peers Return1%28%-19%13%20%10%56%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PRG Win Rate50%42%42%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate46%54%29%38%44%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PRG Max Drawdown--25%-72%-1%-7%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-6%-24%-18%-9%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPRGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven364.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven16.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF


In The Past

PROG's stock fell -78.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/15/2021. A -78.5% loss requires a 364.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PROG (PRG)

Better Bets than PROG (PRG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PROG

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PRGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NamePROG PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Price29.5517.23-2.05371.15229.7129.55
Mkt Cap1.20.7--256.8146.874.0
Rev LTM2,5071,142-470,42848,2312,507
Op Inc LTM413207----310
FCF LTM296-62-618,94420,845296
FCF 3Y Avg221-69--016,90421,063221
CFO LTM305-58-621,13922,335305
CFO 3Y Avg231-65--018,80122,259231

Growth & Margins

PRGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NamePROG PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Rev Chg LTM3.7%15.8%-76.6%9.1%25.4%15.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.5%5.2%-0.3%11.6%13.4%5.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.8%1.4%-250.4%10.8%54.4%10.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%0.4%-49.0%2.6%12.7%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM16.5%18.1%----17.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.8%10.4%----13.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.8%-----0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM12.2%-5.0%-158.3%30.0%46.3%30.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.4%-6.4%--15.0%29.2%55.1%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM11.8%-5.4%-158.3%26.9%43.2%26.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.0%-6.9%--15.0%26.3%52.2%9.0%

Valuation

PRGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NamePROG PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Cap1.20.7--256.8146.874.0
P/S0.50.5--3.32.81.7
P/EBIT5.72.5----4.1
P/E7.86.3--21.896.014.8
P/CFO4.2-10.1--10.96.15.1
Total Yield14.4%15.8%--4.6%2.0%9.5%
Dividend Yield1.6%0.0%--0.0%0.9%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.1%-9.7%--10.7%36.3%12.9%
D/E0.56.3--0.30.40.4
Net D/E0.25.9--0.0-0.10.1

Returns

PRGPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NamePROG PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
1M Rtn6.0%32.1%--19.0%3.0%4.5%4.5%
3M Rtn-16.3%1.6%--66.7%12.5%1.9%1.6%
6M Rtn2.6%21.4%--26.0%20.4%20.9%
12M Rtn-37.2%-17.0%--24.0%25.4%3.5%
3Y Rtn60.0%-50.2%--146.8%154.6%103.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.7%30.9%--20.2%1.7%3.2%3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-21.7%-5.5%--72.9%8.3%-1.7%-5.5%
6M Excs Rtn-12.9%6.0%--10.6%5.0%5.5%
12M Excs Rtn-51.2%-33.1%--10.7%10.7%-11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-17.7%-122.1%--76.2%63.8%23.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Progressive Leasing1,2871,3091,4461,2101,331
Vive14115615010886
Other642727  
Assets of Discontinued Operations    1,881
Total1,4911,4921,6221,3173,298


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,740,188
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.2%
Average Daily Volume391,171
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.45
Basic Shares Quantity39,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Garner BrianChief Financial Officer5142025Buy28.933,500101,2553,836,031Form
1Michaels Steven APresident and CEO5142025Buy29.0314,000406,42016,246,378Form
2Sheu Caroline Sio-Chin 2272025Buy28.011,65046,216512,331Form
3CURLING DOUGLAS C 2242025Buy29.8810,000298,8001,371,880Form