Katapult (KPLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.55 | Market Cap: $31.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Katapult (KPLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.55Market Cap: $31.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Lease-to-Own E-commerce Financing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 281% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -87% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 111% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Lease-to-Own E-commerce Financing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -7.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 281% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -87% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 111% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KPLT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Katapult faced significant profitability challenges and a weak balance sheet with high debt costs. As of September 10, 2025, the company's lease-to-own model, despite offering high yields, had not achieved GAAP net profit, and its balance sheet and substantial debt were a cause for concern for investors. The company's execution needed to be flawless to avoid potential shareholder dilution or bankruptcy, particularly given broader macroeconomic risks and competition in the non-prime consumer finance sector.
2. The company experienced a tempered outlook and trimmed its revenue growth guidance due to macroeconomic pressures. On November 12, 2025, Katapult outlined a full-year gross originations growth target of 20%–23%, which was a reduction from the prior quarter's guidance of 20%–25%. Similarly, revenue growth guidance was trimmed to 18%–20% for the full year, down from at least 20% previously stated, reflecting a more cautious perspective due to economic conditions.
3. Analysts downgraded Katapult's prospects, leading to decreased price targets. On November 18, 2025, Katapult Holdings' (KPLT) price target was decreased by 22.73% to $8.67, indicating a less optimistic view from financial analysts regarding the company's future performance.
4. Rising write-off rates and increasing delinquency rates in the non-prime consumer market impacted performance. Katapult acknowledged challenges in the non-prime consumer market, attributing them to inflation and rising delinquency rates, which directly affect the quality and recoverability of its lease agreements. During Q3 2025, write-offs as a percentage of revenue were 9.9%, an increase of 60 basis points from Q3 2024.
5. The stock experienced a substantial decline, including a reported 40% weekly drop, preceding a recent earnings report. While specific figures for the entire -56.5% movement within the requested period are not detailed, there was a significant "recent 40% weekly decline" prior to the Q3 2025 earnings report around November 2025, highlighting considerable negative sentiment and a sharp drop in value that contributed to the overall decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KPLT Return | 28% | -73% | -72% | -54% | -38% | -5% | -97% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 6% | -31% | 39% | -9% | -3% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KPLT Win Rate | 75% | 25% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 12% | 27% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KPLT Max Drawdown | -6% | -77% | -78% | -64% | -53% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | 0% | -1% | -34% | -10% | -22% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KPLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5495.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -12.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK
In The Past
Katapult's stock fell -98.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -98.2% loss requires a 5495.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KPLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Katapult
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,202 |
| Op Inc LTM | -27 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 121 |
| CFO LTM | 188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -11.6 |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4242024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |