Peoples Bancorp (PEBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.42 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Peoples Bancorp (PEBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.42Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%, FCF Yield is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.7%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PEBO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Peoples Bancorp (PEBO) experienced a slight decrease of 0.3% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several factors, primarily related to its Q3 2025 earnings report and subsequent analyst reactions. Here are five key points highlighting why the stock moved by -0.3%: **1. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: Meeting EPS but Missing Revenue.** Peoples Bancorp reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83, which met analysts' expectations. However, the company's revenue of $115.18 million was slightly below projections of $116.88 million. While meeting EPS expectations can be positive, the revenue miss might have contributed to a slight downward pressure on the stock. **2. Net Income Decline Compared to Prior Year.** Net income for the third quarter of 2025 was $29.5 million, which represented earnings per diluted common share of $0.83. This was lower than the net income of $31.7 million, or $0.89 per diluted common share, reported for the third quarter of 2024. This year-over-year decline in net income, despite meeting current quarter EPS estimates, could have been a contributing factor to the stock's negative movement. **3. Impact of Investment Securities Sales.** During Q3 2025, Peoples Bancorp sold approximately $75 million of investment securities at a loss of $2.7 million. This strategic move aimed to increase future investment securities yields but negatively impacted diluted earnings per share by $0.06 for the quarter. **4. Analyst Revisions and Ratings.** While some analysts revised earnings expectations upward for the upcoming period and several maintained "Buy" or "Hold" ratings with price targets indicating an upside, there were also instances of negative revisions. The mean earnings estimate from analysts had fallen by about 2.6% in the three months leading up to the Q3 report, and one analyst negatively revised an earnings estimate in the 30 days prior. This mixed analyst sentiment and slight downward revisions could have influenced investor confidence. **5. Overall Stock Performance and Forecast.** In the broader context, Peoples Bancorp shares had fallen by 4.3% in the quarter ending September 2025 and lost 9.4% year-to-date as of October 21, 2025. Although the stock did see a pre-market rise of 1.67% to $29.02 following the Q3 earnings release, reflecting investor confidence in strategic initiatives, its movement during the broader specified period included a slight decline. Analysts' average 12-month price targets generally suggest an upside from the stock's price in early December 2025, with a consensus rating of "Hold" among some analysts. However, the actual price movement in the period indicates that the positive sentiment might not have fully offset other factors or the broader market conditions.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEBO Return | -17% | 23% | -7% | 26% | -1% | -1% | 18% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEBO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEBO Max Drawdown | -45% | 0% | -16% | -15% | -19% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEBO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 244 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 312.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2830 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Peoples Bancorp's stock fell -36.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -36.1% loss requires a 56.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PEBO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Peoples Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 13.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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