Avidia Bancorp (AVBC)
Market Price (1/21/2026): $16.71 | Market Cap: $309.5 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Avidia Bancorp (AVBC)
Market Price (1/21/2026): $16.71Market Cap: $309.5 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Key risksAVBC key risks include [1] its heavy loan concentration in specific Massachusetts sectors, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Community Financial Services. Themes include Local Business Banking, Personal & Retail Banking, and Community Economic Development. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Community Financial Services. Themes include Local Business Banking, Personal & Retail Banking, and Community Economic Development. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
| Key risksAVBC key risks include [1] its heavy loan concentration in specific Massachusetts sectors, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
Avidia Bancorp reported robust third-quarter financial results on October 23, 2025, showcasing a significant 13.6% increase in net interest income to $23.4 million compared to the prior quarter, alongside an expansion of its net interest margin by 24 basis points to 3.43%. This positive financial performance likely instilled greater investor confidence.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Ratings Upgrade.
During the period, Avidia Bancorp received favorable attention from analysts, including being highlighted in Riverwater Partners' Micro Opportunities Strategy's Q3 2025 investor letter, which pointed to deep value, strong franchise strength, and a projected meaningful ramp-up in EPS from $0.09 in FY25 to $1.11 in FY26. Additionally, by January 16, 2026, StockInvest.us upgraded its analysis conclusion for AVBC from a "Buy" to a "Strong Buy" candidate, further bolstering investor appeal.
3. Undervaluation Post Mutual-to-Stock Conversion.
While the Initial Public Offering (IPO) closed on July 31, 2025, and trading commenced on August 1, 2025, the stock was initially priced at just 58% of its tangible book value. This significant undervaluation relative to peers created a notable valuation upside, attracting investors in the subsequent months as the market recognized its potential.
4. Strategic Partnership for HSA Deposits.
On January 15, 2026, Avidia Bank announced a strategic partnership with MaxHSA, specifically aimed at increasing Health Savings Account (HSA) deposits. This forward-looking initiative signaled potential new avenues for growth and enhanced deposit acquisition for the bank.
5. Strengthened Governance with Board Appointment.
The appointment of Michael Gilles to Avidia Bancorp's Board of Directors on September 25, 2025, was viewed as a strategic positive. This move was noted for enhancing the company's governance and operational capabilities, which likely contributed to a more positive investor perception during the analyzed period. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.7% change in AVBC stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 10312025 | 1202026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.87 | 16.76 | 12.71% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20.08 | 20.08 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVBC | 12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.7% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.6% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVBC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.9% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVBC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.4% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVBC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 72.9% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 52.2% | 38.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVBC Return | - | - | - | - | 15% | 3% | 18% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 10% | 7% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVBC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 60% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 82% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVBC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -2% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -6% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, CBC, CBK, HYNE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AVBC has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, CBC, CBK, HYNE
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- A local Bank of America.
- Your neighborhood's Chase Bank.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deposit Services: Offers a variety of checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit accounts for individuals and businesses.
- Residential Real Estate Lending: Provides mortgage loans for the purchase or refinancing of residential properties.
- Commercial Real Estate Lending: Offers loans for the acquisition, development, and refinancing of commercial properties.
- Commercial & Industrial Lending: Supplies loans and lines of credit to businesses for working capital, equipment purchases, and other operational needs.
- Consumer Lending: Grants personal loans, home equity loans, and other installment loans to individuals.
- Digital Banking Services: Enables customers to manage accounts, transfer funds, and pay bills conveniently through online and mobile platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Avidia Bancorp (AVBC) is a bank holding company. Its primary subsidiary, Avidia Bank, operates as a community bank. Community banks do not typically have a few "major customers" in the way a manufacturing or technology company might. Instead, they serve a broad base of individuals and businesses within their geographic footprint.
Avidia Bancorp sells its financial products and services to both individuals and businesses. Given its nature as a community bank, it does not sell primarily to other large, identifiable public or private companies. Its customer base is highly diversified.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals seeking personal banking services such as checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, consumer loans (e.g., auto loans, personal loans), and residential mortgages for home purchases or refinancing.
Small to Medium-Sized Businesses: This segment comprises local and regional businesses that utilize commercial loans, lines of credit, business checking and savings accounts, treasury management services, and commercial real estate financing for owner-occupied properties.
Commercial Real Estate Investors and Developers: This category includes individuals and entities that borrow for the acquisition, development, construction, or refinancing of income-producing properties, such as multi-family residential, office, retail, and industrial properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Robert D. Cozzone, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Cozzone has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Assabet Valley Bancorp and Avidia Bank since March 2023. He has been employed in banking throughout his professional career. From April 2019 to March 2023, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Independent Bank Corp. and its bank subsidiary, Rockland Trust Company, where his responsibilities included mergers and acquisitions strategy, consumer banking, and investor relations. Before that, he served as Chief Financial Officer of Rockland Trust from 2013-2019. He also served for 9 years as Treasurer of Independent Bank Corp., where his duties included interest rate risk management, liquidity management, capital planning, mergers and acquisitions, shareholder relations, investments, and strategic planning. Mr. Cozzone played an integral part in Rockland Trust's numerous mergers and acquisitions over two decades.
Jonathan Nelson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Nelson has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since October 2024. Prior to joining Avidia Bank, he served for 9 years as Treasurer of Independent Bank Corp. and its bank subsidiary, Rockland Trust Company. His responsibilities as Treasurer included interest rate risk management, liquidity management, capital planning, mergers and acquisitions, shareholder relations, investments, derivatives, and strategic planning.
Bartholomew H. Murphy, Jr., Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Murphy has been employed with Avidia Bank since January 1992 and has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer since 2021. From 1992 to 2010, he held various lending and commercial banking management positions, and from 2010 to 2021, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Lending Officer.
Robert W. Conery, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Mr. Conery has been employed with Avidia Bank for 35 years. In November 2000, he was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, with responsibilities for overseeing Operational Support and Information Technology.
Donald J. Frost III, Executive Vice President – Consumer Banking
Mr. Frost has been employed with Avidia Bank since May 2011. He has served as Executive Vice President – Consumer Banking since January 2021.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Avidia Bancorp's (AVBC) business are primarily related to its concentrated loan portfolio and geographic focus, ongoing profitability challenges, and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and general economic conditions.
The most significant risk stems from the company's **geographic and loan concentration**. Avidia Bancorp is heavily invested in lending to borrowers within Massachusetts, with a substantial portion of its commercial and industrial (C&I) loans directed towards condominium associations and dental practices. This niche and geographically concentrated loan portfolio exposes the bank to significant risk, as demonstrated by a hefty loss of approximately $12 million in the first quarter of 2025 due to a $16.7 million charge-off tied to a single $25 million land loan.
Secondly, **persistent profitability concerns** pose a considerable risk. The company has experienced accelerating losses, averaging 43.1% annually over the past five years, with no reported improvement in its net profit margin in the last year. While there were profits in 2023 and 2024, the significant loss in Q1 2025 raises doubts about full-year profitability, underscoring the volatility in its financial performance.
Finally, as a financial institution, Avidia Bancorp is highly susceptible to **interest rate volatility and changes in general business and economic conditions**. Fluctuations in market interest rates, real estate values, and broader economic downturns can adversely affect borrowers' ability to repay loans, impact the value of the bank's securities and other assets, and lead to reductions in net interest income.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The emergence and growth of digital-first banks (neobanks) and fintech platforms that offer superior digital user experiences, lower fees, and competitive interest rates on deposits. These companies directly compete for Avidia Bancorp's core deposit base and basic banking services, especially among younger, digitally-savvy demographics who prioritize convenience and technology over physical branches.
- The increasing market share of specialized fintech lenders in areas such as mortgages, personal loans, and small business loans. These platforms leverage technology to streamline the lending process, offering faster approvals and more convenient application experiences, thereby siphoning off traditional lending opportunities from community banks like Avidia Bancorp.
- The expansion of large technology companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon) into financial services. While not traditional banks, their offerings in payments, consumer credit (e.g., Apple Card, Apple Pay Later), and other financial products leverage their massive user bases and technological capabilities to capture customer transactions and relationships that were historically maintained by incumbent banks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Avidia Bancorp (AVBC) is a community bank headquartered in Hudson, Massachusetts, primarily serving western Middlesex County and eastern Worcester County in Massachusetts. Its main products and services include personal and business banking (checking, savings, credit cards), mortgages (residential and home equity), and commercial loans.
The addressable markets for Avidia Bancorp's main products and services are as follows:
- Community Banking (Deposits): The total deposits held at community bank branches in Massachusetts were approximately $160.45 billion as of December 13, 2024.
- Residential Mortgages: The volume of single-family mortgages in Massachusetts was $25.48 billion in 2022. Additionally, non-purchase residential mortgages, which include home equity loans, totaled $45.6 billion in Massachusetts in 2022.
- Commercial Lending: The commercial banking industry market size in Massachusetts is projected to be $34.3 billion in 2025. Furthermore, the total commercial loans portfolio for Massachusetts banks amounted to $131.7 billion in the third quarter of 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Avidia Bancorp (AVBC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:- Net Interest Income Expansion through Net Interest Margin Improvement and Loan Growth: Avidia Bancorp has demonstrated recent improvements in its net interest margin (NIM), with the NIM expanding to 3.19% in Q2 2025 and further to 3.43% in Q3 2025. This expansion was partly due to a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities and deposits. Concurrently, the company has seen growth in its gross loans, increasing by $15.0 million in Q2 2025 to $2.25 billion and further by $26.7 million in Q3 2025 to $2.27 billion, primarily driven by commercial real estate loans. Continued growth in the loan portfolio, coupled with effective interest rate management, is expected to enhance net interest income.
- Growth in Commercial Lending, including Niche Markets: The bank has experienced strong growth in commercial lending and banking. Avidia Bank has shown particular strength in niche commercial lending areas, such as loans to condominium associations and dental practices. This specialized focus within commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, which constituted 45.3% of total loans as of Q2 2025, provides a distinct avenue for continued revenue expansion.
- Expansion of Payments Processing Business: A significant driver of non-interest income is Avidia Bancorp's growing payments processing business, which serves over 17,000 small merchants. This segment not only contributes directly to non-interest income but also acts as a source of low-cost deposits, further supporting the bank's financial position and overall revenue generation.
- Strategic Deployment of Capital from the Initial Public Offering (IPO): Following its mutual-to-stock conversion and initial public offering (IPO) in July 2025, Avidia Bancorp saw a substantial increase in its cash and cash equivalents. The funds received from the IPO subscription offering significantly boosted deposits. The strategic deployment of this enhanced capital base into lending initiatives and other growth opportunities is anticipated to fuel future revenue growth.
- Digital Banking and FinTech Partnerships: Avidia Bank has been actively building on its commitment to FinTech companies, aiding them with access to card networks and real-time payment capabilities to improve cash flow for businesses. This focus on digital solutions and partnerships positions the bank to attract new customers and expand its service offerings, contributing to future revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Federal regulations prohibit Avidia Bancorp from repurchasing its shares of common stock during the first year following its conversion and stock offering.
- Massachusetts regulations further prohibit share repurchases for the first three years following the completion of its conversion and stock offering.
Share Issuance
- Avidia Bancorp completed its initial public offering (IPO) on July 31, 2025, selling 19,176,250 shares of common stock at $10.00 per share.
- The IPO generated approximately $191.8 million in gross proceeds.
- As part of the IPO, 1,606,100 shares were sold to Avidia Bank's Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), and 900,000 shares were contributed to the Avidia Bank Charitable Foundation, Inc.
Inbound Investments
- T. Rowe Price Investment Management reported beneficial ownership of 1,218,250 shares of Avidia Bancorp common stock, representing 6.1% of the class as of September 30, 2025.
- Other institutional investors holding significant stakes include Vanguard Group Inc., Wellington Management Group LLP, and Fj Capital Management LLC.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Avidia Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 89 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 19 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -107 |
| CFO LTM | 20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -105 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -32.4% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2025 | 0.5% | 3.2% | 5.6% |
| 8/4/2025 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
| Max Positive | 0.5% | 3.2% | 5.6% |
| Max Negative | -0.3% | -0.2% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 06/27/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 05/21/2025 | 424B3 (12/31/2024) |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jensen, Barry H | EVP and Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Buy | 12172025 | 17.07 | 2,500 | 42,674 | 597,432 | Form |
| 2 | Murphy, Michael Dennis | Spouse's IRA | Buy | 12032025 | 16.00 | 6,230 | 99,671 | 115,670 | Form | |
| 3 | Ball, James N | IRA | Buy | 12012025 | 16.13 | 5,000 | 80,656 | 725,904 | Form | |
| 4 | Nelson, Jonathan Michael | CFO and Treasurer | 401(k) | Buy | 11252025 | 15.41 | 3,245 | 50,005 | 305,103 | Form |
| 5 | Cozzone, Robert D | President & CEO | 401(k) | Buy | 11242025 | 15.33 | 3,261 | 50,004 | 913,287 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.