PotlatchDeltic (PCH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.67 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Timber REITs
PotlatchDeltic (PCH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $38.67Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Timber REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PCH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period between late August 2025 and early December 2025, PotlatchDeltic (PCH) experienced a stock price decline influenced by several key factors.
1. Persistent Weakness in Lumber Prices and Wood Products Segment Performance. The Wood Products segment of PotlatchDeltic reported an EBITDA loss in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to historically weak lumber prices. The average lumber price decreased to $396 per thousand board feet (MBF) in Q3 2025, and average prices for Q4 were anticipated to remain similar. Additionally, Idaho sawlog prices were projected to decline by approximately 13% in the fourth quarter.
2. Lower Fourth Quarter 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance. Despite reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue for the third quarter of 2025, PotlatchDeltic's management provided an outlook anticipating lower adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter. This forecast was largely attributed to an expected decrease in rural real estate acres sold and reduced residential and commercial development activity.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PCH Return | 20% | 33% | -23% | 16% | -17% | 2% | 22% |
| Peers Return | -10% | 35% | -20% | 3% | 4% | -6% | -2% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PCH Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 43% | 45% | 55% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PCH Max Drawdown | -45% | -5% | -33% | -2% | -22% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -5% | -30% | -20% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -47.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 833 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1513 days | 1480 days |
Compare to O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN
In The Past
PotlatchDeltic's stock fell -34.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -34.4% loss requires a 52.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PCH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PotlatchDeltic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,273 |
| Op Inc LTM | 440 |
| FCF LTM | 267 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 330 |
| CFO LTM | 480 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 478 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 21.1 |
| P/E | 38.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood Products | 636 | 913 | 989 | 698 | 540 |
| Timberlands | 411 | 486 | 449 | 377 | 323 |
| Real Estate | 88 | 91 | 64 | 104 | 79 |
| Other intersegment revenues | -0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment Timberlands revenues | -111 | -159 | -165 | -138 | -115 |
| Total | 1,024 | 1,331 | 1,337 | 1,041 | 827 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberlands | 151 | 249 | 263 | 183 | 134 |
| Real Estate | 68 | 73 | 47 | 86 | 63 |
| Gain on fire damage | 39 | 35 | 3 | ||
| Wood Products | 20 | 291 | 394 | 176 | 13 |
| Eliminations and adjustments | 6 | 10 | -4 | -15 | 6 |
| Loss (gain) on disposal of assets | -1 | -0 | -2 | 0 | -1 |
| CatchMark merger-related expenses | -2 | -27 | |||
| Basis of real estate sold | -31 | -30 | -27 | -25 | -21 |
| Corporate | -45 | -49 | -47 | -48 | -36 |
| Depreciation, depletion and amortization | -120 | -97 | -76 | -76 | -70 |
| Environmental charge | -6 | ||||
| Gain on sale of facility | 9 | ||||
| Total | 86 | 449 | 552 | 281 | 96 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberlands | 2,476 | 2,546 | 1,714 | 1,618 | 1,655 |
| Wood Products | 499 | 441 | 435 | 421 | 398 |
| Corporate | 382 | 492 | 305 | 253 | 94 |
| Real Estate | 74 | 72 | 82 | 90 | 87 |
| Total | 3,431 | 3,551 | 2,535 | 2,381 | 2,235 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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