Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PCH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period between late August 2025 and early December 2025, PotlatchDeltic (PCH) experienced a stock price decline influenced by several key factors.

1. Persistent Weakness in Lumber Prices and Wood Products Segment Performance. The Wood Products segment of PotlatchDeltic reported an EBITDA loss in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to historically weak lumber prices. The average lumber price decreased to $396 per thousand board feet (MBF) in Q3 2025, and average prices for Q4 were anticipated to remain similar. Additionally, Idaho sawlog prices were projected to decline by approximately 13% in the fourth quarter.

2. Lower Fourth Quarter 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance. Despite reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue for the third quarter of 2025, PotlatchDeltic's management provided an outlook anticipating lower adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter. This forecast was largely attributed to an expected decrease in rural real estate acres sold and reduced residential and commercial development activity.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PCH Return20%33%-23%16%-17%2%22%
Peers Return-10%35%-20%3%4%-6%-2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PCH Win Rate50%75%42%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%67%43%45%55%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PCH Max Drawdown-45%-5%-33%-2%-22%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-5%-30%-20%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPCHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven147 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven833 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1513 days1480 days

Compare to O, FRT, HIW, WY, RYN


In The Past

PotlatchDeltic's stock fell -34.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -34.4% loss requires a 52.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About PotlatchDeltic (PCH)

Better Bets than PotlatchDeltic (PCH)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PCH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for PotlatchDeltic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PCHOFRTHIWWYRYNMedian
NamePotlatch.Realty I.Federal .Highwood.Weyerhae.Rayonier  
Mkt Price38.8258.0997.8827.1521.8721.2932.98
Mkt Cap3.053.18.42.915.83.35.9
Rev LTM1,1165,6121,2548087,0721,2931,273
Op Inc LTM922,564451208595428440
FCF LTM1193,76333636389199267
FCF 3Y Avg653,31827638446636330
CFO LTM2013,763597363894293480
CFO 3Y Avg1793,3185723841,095275478

Growth & Margins

PCHOFRTHIWWYRYNMedian
NamePotlatch.Realty I.Federal .Highwood.Weyerhae.Rayonier  
Rev Chg LTM5.4%14.7%6.0%-2.3%-1.6%60.6%5.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.7%21.5%6.2%-0.5%-11.8%15.7%2.8%
Rev Chg Q23.1%9.1%6.1%-1.2%2.1%43.1%7.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.6%2.1%1.5%-0.3%0.5%4.3%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM8.2%45.7%36.0%25.7%8.4%33.2%29.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.3%42.6%35.1%26.2%11.4%23.3%24.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.4%1.1%-0.2%0.5%-0.5%0.4%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%67.1%47.6%44.9%12.6%22.6%33.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.7%69.5%48.2%46.5%14.9%29.2%37.9%
FCF/Rev LTM10.6%67.1%26.8%44.9%1.3%15.4%21.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.1%69.5%23.1%46.5%6.2%1.8%14.7%

Valuation

PCHOFRTHIWWYRYNMedian
NamePotlatch.Realty I.Federal .Highwood.Weyerhae.Rayonier  
Mkt Cap3.053.18.42.915.83.35.9
P/S2.89.96.94.32.53.23.7
P/EBIT34.225.916.212.330.89.321.1
P/E49.257.725.127.154.05.338.2
P/CFO15.714.814.69.520.014.014.7
Total Yield6.5%6.9%4.0%9.9%5.2%24.7%6.7%
Dividend Yield4.4%5.2%0.0%6.2%3.3%5.8%4.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.0%6.9%3.2%13.2%2.0%0.7%2.6%
D/E0.30.50.61.00.30.30.4
Net D/E0.30.50.51.00.30.00.4

Returns

PCHOFRTHIWWYRYNMedian
NamePotlatch.Realty I.Federal .Highwood.Weyerhae.Rayonier  
1M Rtn-0.6%0.3%2.3%-3.2%-1.9%-2.2%-1.3%
3M Rtn-3.6%1.6%-1.1%-11.2%-11.0%-11.4%-7.3%
6M Rtn2.7%6.8%5.3%-7.1%-15.3%-1.7%0.5%
12M Rtn-8.0%9.7%-10.0%-6.8%-28.8%-24.7%-9.0%
3Y Rtn-6.0%8.9%1.8%16.5%-24.4%-27.7%-2.1%
1M Excs Rtn-0.6%0.3%2.3%-3.1%-1.9%-2.2%-1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-12.3%-4.3%-7.3%-17.1%-18.9%-18.6%-14.7%
6M Excs Rtn-12.0%-7.9%-9.5%-21.8%-30.1%-16.4%-14.2%
12M Excs Rtn-23.2%-6.9%-25.9%-24.0%-43.5%-38.6%-24.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-76.5%-61.5%-69.3%-53.9%-93.9%-98.8%-72.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wood Products636913989698540
Timberlands411486449377323
Real Estate88916410479
Other intersegment revenues-00   
Intersegment Timberlands revenues-111-159-165-138-115
Total1,0241,3311,3371,041827


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Timberlands151249263183134
Real Estate6873478663
Gain on fire damage39353  
Wood Products2029139417613
Eliminations and adjustments610-4-156
Loss (gain) on disposal of assets-1-0-20-1
CatchMark merger-related expenses-2-27   
Basis of real estate sold-31-30-27-25-21
Corporate-45-49-47-48-36
Depreciation, depletion and amortization-120-97-76-76-70
Environmental charge -6   
Gain on sale of facility    9
Total8644955228196


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Timberlands2,4762,5461,7141,6181,655
Wood Products499441435421398
Corporate38249230525394
Real Estate7472829087
Total3,4313,5512,5352,3812,235


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,293,529
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.7%
Average Daily Volume750,652
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.72
Basic Shares Quantity77,635,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021