Patria Investments (PAX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.575 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Patria Investments (PAX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.575Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Patria Investments (PAX) experienced a positive stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Patria Investments reported robust unaudited results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025. The company's Distributable Earnings reached $46.9 million, or $0.30 per share, marking a 31% increase from Q3 2024. Fee Related Earnings (FRE) also grew by 22% year-over-year to $49.5 million.
2. Significant Growth in Assets Under Management (AUM) and Fundraising: As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, Patria's Assets Under Management (AUM) surpassed $50 billion, representing more than a 3.5-fold increase since its IPO in 2021. The company successfully raised over $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, bringing its year-to-date fundraising to $6 billion, and expressed confidence in exceeding its full-year fundraising target of $6.6 billion.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAX Return | - | - | -10% | 19% | -20% | 37% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAX Win Rate | - | 55% | 58% | 67% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 35% | 56% | 48% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAX Max Drawdown | - | - | -21% | -3% | -27% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -13% | -31% | -11% | -12% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Patria Investments's stock fell -45.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -45.3% loss requires a 82.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Patria Investments Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Patria Investments
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 152 |
| Op Inc LTM | 104 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 71 |
| CFO LTM | 34 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 0.9 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from management fees | 253 | 220 | 141 | 109 | 102 |
| Revenue from performance fees | 75 | 29 | 89 | 0 | 4 |
| Revenue from incentive fees | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| Revenue from advisory and other ancillary fees | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rebate fees | 0 | ||||
| Taxes on revenue | -7 | ||||
| M&A and monitoring fees | 1 | ||||
| Total | 328 | 259 | 236 | 115 | 123 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 8012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 5152025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 2122025 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 8012024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11272023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 11062023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 11062023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4282023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 4172023 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10122022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 9212022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4282022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11182021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |