Bank OZK (OZK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.375 | Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Bank OZK (OZK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $46.375Market Cap: $5.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.1, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 2.1% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 2.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.1, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OZK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Bank OZK (OZK) experienced a stock price decrease of 10.3% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Conservative Outlook: Bank OZK reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 16-17, 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59, falling short of the forecasted $1.66 by 4.22%. Despite revenue slightly exceeding expectations, the stock declined almost 4% in premarket trading after the announcement. Furthermore, the bank's initial 2026 outlook included projections for mid-single-digit loan growth, which was below the Street's expectation of 9.1%, and a forecasted 10-11% noninterest expense growth, surpassing analyst consensus of 9.4%, leading to a reduction in analysts' 2026 EPS forecasts.
2. Increased Loan Loss Provisions and Credit Quality Concerns: During the third quarter of 2025, Bank OZK increased its loan loss provisions, setting aside $14 million for potential bad loans. This contributed to an ongoing trend of growing loan loss reserves, which have increased from $300 million to $680 million over the past 13 quarters. The bank's net charge-off ratio reached 0.41% for Q3 2025, the highest since the third quarter of 2018, fueling broader concerns about credit quality within the banking industry.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OZK Return | 8% | 53% | -11% | 29% | -7% | 7% | 88% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OZK Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OZK Max Drawdown | -49% | 0% | -24% | -20% | -23% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OZK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 250 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 618 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Bank OZK's stock fell -38.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2022. A -38.4% loss requires a 62.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OZK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bank OZK
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 14.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312017 | 5052017 | 10-Q 3/31/2017 |
| 12312016 | 3012017 | 10-K 12/31/2016 |
| 9302016 | 11082016 | 10-Q 9/30/2016 |
| 6302016 | 8082016 | 10-Q 6/30/2016 |
| 3312016 | 5062016 | 10-Q 3/31/2016 |
| 12312015 | 2192016 | 10-K 12/31/2015 |
| 9302015 | 11062015 | 10-Q 9/30/2015 |
| 6302015 | 8072015 | 10-Q 6/30/2015 |
| 3312015 | 5082015 | 10-Q 3/31/2015 |
| 12312014 | 2272015 | 10-K 12/31/2014 |
| 9302014 | 11072014 | 10-Q 9/30/2014 |
| 6302014 | 8072014 | 10-Q 6/30/2014 |
| 3312014 | 5092014 | 10-Q 3/31/2014 |
| 12312013 | 2282014 | 10-K 12/31/2013 |
| 9302013 | 11072013 | 10-Q 9/30/2013 |
| 6302013 | 8092013 | 10-Q 6/30/2013 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |