Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA)
Market Price (12/30/2025): $30.88 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA)
Market Price (12/30/2025): $30.88Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.27, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 176% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | ||
| Key risksORKA key risks include [1] its substantial dependence on the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.27, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 176% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksORKA key risks include [1] its substantial dependence on the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 60.2% change in ORKA stock from 9/29/2025 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 9292025 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.29 | 30.90 | 60.19% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29.40 | 44.20 | -50.36% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/29/2025 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORKA | 60.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.7% | 17.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 175.6% change in ORKA stock from 6/30/2025 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 6302025 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.21 | 30.90 | 175.65% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0.00 | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 41.68 | 44.20 | -6.06% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORKA | 175.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 22.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.1% | 25.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 62.5% change in ORKA stock from 12/29/2024 to 12/29/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12292024 | 12292025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.01 | 30.90 | 62.55% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0.00 | � |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15.06 | 44.20 | -193.46% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
12/29/2024 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORKA | 62.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.6% | 28.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.6% | 28.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/30/2023 to 12/29/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORKA | 181.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.9% | 19.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.6% | 19.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORKA Return | -30% | -46% | 10% | -28% | 77% | 63% | -14% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 151% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORKA Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORKA Max Drawdown | -59% | -46% | -18% | -28% | -7% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/29/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORKA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 212.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 413.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -90.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 936.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13233.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Oruka Therapeutics's stock fell -68.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -68.0% loss requires a 212.7% gain to breakeven.
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- Orkacept (ORK-001): An investigational antibody therapy designed to treat autoimmune diseases by modulating a specific inflammatory pathway.
- ORK-101: A small molecule inhibitor currently in clinical trials for oncology, targeting a key protein involved in various solid tumors.
- Gene Therapy Platform: A proprietary technology platform focused on developing novel gene therapies for inherited rare genetic disorders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oruka Therapeutics (symbol: ORKA) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of novel therapies for dermatological diseases, particularly using its nitric oxide-based technology.
As a clinical-stage company, Oruka Therapeutics is primarily engaged in research and development, and the process of seeking regulatory approval for its drug candidates. Its lead product candidate, SB206 (for molluscum contagiosum), is currently undergoing regulatory review processes and is not yet approved or commercially available on the market.
Therefore, Oruka Therapeutics does not currently have "major customers" in the traditional sense of companies or individuals purchasing commercially available products from them. The company is focused on bringing its therapies to market, at which point its customers would typically include pharmaceutical wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, healthcare providers, and potentially managed care organizations, with patients being the ultimate beneficiaries of the treatment.
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Key Risks to Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA)
Oruka Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, faces several significant risks inherent to its industry and current stage of development. The most prominent challenges revolve around its product pipeline, financial stability, and operational execution.
- Clinical Trial and Regulatory Risk: The primary risk for Oruka Therapeutics stems from its dependence on the successful development and regulatory approval of its lead product candidates, ORKA-001 and ORKA-002. As a clinical-stage company, the future success of Oruka is substantially reliant on these high-risk ventures, which have uncertain outcomes. Any setbacks in clinical trials, such as unfavorable results, delays, or failure to obtain necessary regulatory approvals from bodies like the FDA, would significantly and adversely impact the business.
- Lack of Revenue and History of Losses: Oruka Therapeutics currently generates no revenue and has consistently reported significant net losses since its inception. While recent financing rounds have provided a cash runway, the company will continue to incur substantial research and development expenses as it advances its pipeline. There is an ongoing risk of requiring additional funding in the future, which could lead to further dilution for existing shareholders.
- Manufacturing and Intellectual Property Risks: Developing and manufacturing complex biologic drugs is a challenging endeavor. Oruka's ability to successfully bring its products to market depends on its capacity to master the manufacturing processes and ensure consistency and safety for regulatory approval. Furthermore, protecting its intellectual property through patents and other means is crucial in the highly competitive biopharmaceutical landscape. Failure to adequately protect its intellectual property could negatively impact its competitive position and future revenue potential.
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Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) is developing novel biologics primarily for the treatment of chronic skin diseases, with a significant focus on plaque psoriasis. Their main product candidates include ORKA-001 (an IL-23p19 inhibitor), ORKA-002 (an IL-17A/F inhibitor), and ORKA-021 (a sequential combination regimen of ORKA-002 and ORKA-001).
The addressable market for psoriasis, which Oruka Therapeutics' main products target, is estimated to be approximately $25 billion. This market is also projected to grow to a $40 billion global market for psoriasis biologics by 2035. Oruka's programs collectively target a total market opportunity exceeding $50 billion, which includes psoriasis and other inflammatory and immunology (I&I) indications, and is considered a global market.
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Oruka Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ORKA) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel biologics for chronic skin diseases. As the company is currently pre-revenue, its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years will be primarily driven by the advancement and potential commercialization of its pipeline assets. Analysts currently forecast Oruka Therapeutics to remain unprofitable and without revenue in the near term. However, the key expected drivers for future revenue growth beyond this immediate period are tied to the successful development and potential market entry of its lead product candidates:
- Successful Clinical Development and Potential Commercialization of ORKA-001: ORKA-001, a novel half-life extended IL-23p19 monoclonal antibody, is a primary focus for Oruka Therapeutics. The company has completed Phase 1 dosing for ORKA-001 and expects to share data from its Phase 2a EVERLAST-A trial in the second half of 2026. Positive clinical trial results and subsequent regulatory approval would be the most significant driver of future revenue, particularly given its potential for once-yearly or infrequent dosing in plaque psoriasis, which could differentiate it in the market.
- Advancement of ORKA-002 into Later-Stage Clinical Trials: ORKA-002, a novel half-life extended IL-17A/F monoclonal antibody, is also progressing through the pipeline. Its Phase 1 trial is ongoing, with data expected around year-end 2025. The advancement of ORKA-002 into later-stage clinical trials, and ultimately towards regulatory submission, represents another significant potential revenue stream, particularly as it aims for 2-3 times yearly dosing and dual cytokine inhibition for chronic skin diseases.
- Differentiation through Infrequent Dosing and High Disease Clearance Rates: Oruka's strategy to develop novel biologics that offer high rates of complete disease clearance with infrequent dosing (as infrequently as once or twice per year for ORKA-001) is a critical factor in its long-term revenue potential. If successful, this differentiation could lead to strong market adoption and competitive advantage upon commercialization.
- Expansion into Additional Dermatologic and Inflammatory Diseases: While plaque psoriasis is a primary initial target, Oruka Therapeutics is developing its proprietary portfolio of antibodies to target the core mechanisms underlying other dermatologic and inflammatory diseases. Future revenue growth could be driven by the expansion of its product candidates' indications into these additional large markets, leveraging the established efficacy and safety profiles in related conditions.
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Share Issuance
- Oruka Therapeutics issued 39,425,806 shares of common stock for approximately $756.19 million after closing a shelf registration on November 8, 2025.
- On September 17, 2025, the company announced a private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing that is expected to generate gross proceeds of approximately $180 million through the sale of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
- Following the merger with ARCA biopharma, a private placement, and a reverse stock split, Oruka Therapeutics had approximately 46.3 million shares of common stock and equivalents in circulation as of September 6, 2024.
Inbound Investments
- On September 17, 2025, Oruka Therapeutics announced a $180 million private placement, with Viking Global Investors as the lead investor, intended to fund research and development, general corporate expenses, and working capital.
- In conjunction with its merger with ARCA biopharma, Oruka completed a $275 million private placement on September 6, 2024, involving investors such as Fairmount, Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners, and Blackstone Multi-Asset Investing.
- The company raised over $475 million in 2024 from its go-public transaction and private placements, providing cash runway through multiple clinical milestones.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the last 12 months, as of October 31, 2025, were reported at approximately -$253,182.
- The primary focus of capital allocation, particularly from recent financings, is on research and development for its lead drug candidates, ORKA-001 and ORKA-002, aimed at treating chronic skin diseases.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ORKA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Oruka Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 159.0 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 11,854 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 13,483 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/08/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $28.90 | $17.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.9% | 78.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.2% | 80.2% |
| Downside Capture | 28.02 | 142.25 |
| Upside Capture | 253.80 | 169.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.5% | 28.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.20 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| Up Beta | 3.11 | 2.36 | 1.44 | 1.77 | 0.86 | 0.51 |
| Down Beta | 4.71 | 3.55 | 2.85 | 1.49 | 1.34 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | 81% | 213% | 305% | 357% | 178% | 137% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 27 | 36 | 69 | 130 | 344 |
| Down Capture | -7% | -122% | -119% | 12% | 114% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 14 | 26 | 54 | 115 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of ORKA With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORKA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 47.1% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 65.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | -7.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 79.9% | 17.2% | 19.4% | 19.8% | 15.3% | 17.0% | 34.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 2.43 | 0.27 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 28.8% | 28.7% | 1.8% | -0.2% | 25.6% | 17.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of ORKA With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORKA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 3.7% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 17.7% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 30.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 70.3% | 14.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.6% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 0.18 | 0.57 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 16.2% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of ORKA With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORKA | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -25.3% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 69.0% |
| Annualized Volatility | 151.9% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.89 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 9.2% | 6.6% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLV, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/5/2024 | 2.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 5.1% | -0.3% | 50.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.9% | -6.3% | -2.6% |
| 2/1/2024 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% |
| 10/18/2023 | -0.5% | -3.9% | -12.7% |
| 7/21/2023 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2/24/2023 | 3.8% | 3.3% | -1.0% |
| 10/28/2022 | -1.2% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -5.5% | -15.1% |
| Max Positive | 31.3% | 20.9% | 119.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.4% | -32.6% | -56.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | S-4 (03/31/2024) |
Industry Resources
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