Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $6.315 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $6.315Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -204 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1090%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 282% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, and Online Marketplaces. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -32%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 770% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 165% | ||
| Key risksOPEN key risks include [1] its iBuying model's extreme vulnerability to housing market downturns, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -204 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1090%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 282% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -32%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 770% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 165% |
| Key risksOPEN key risks include [1] its iBuying model's extreme vulnerability to housing market downturns, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Opendoor's Q3 2025 Financial Results and Weak Q4 Outlook. Opendoor Technologies reported a challenging third quarter of 2025 on November 6, 2025, with a net loss and revenue falling below analyst expectations. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.12, missing the forecast of -$0.07, and revenue of $915 million, slightly below the anticipated $922.05 million. This led to a 9.27% drop in the stock's after-hours trading. Furthermore, the company projected a 35% revenue decline for Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 due to diminished inventory levels and forecasted an adjusted EBITDA loss between $40 million and $50 million for Q4 2025, signaling continued financial headwinds.
2. Strategic Pivot in iBuying Model Resulting in Older Inventory. In Q3 2025, Opendoor shifted its iBuying strategy from a defensive, risk-averse approach to a higher-velocity, market-maker model. This change was a response to earlier strategies that prioritized risk control over transaction volume, which led to a decline in home acquisitions (only 1,169 units in Q3 2025) and left the company with an inventory of older, less attractive homes. This legacy inventory negatively impacted profitability and margins despite revenues exceeding guidance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPEN Return | � | -36% | -92% | 286% | -64% | 292% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -67% | 63% | 2% | 2% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPEN Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 35% | 32% | 50% | 43% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPEN Max Drawdown | � | -41% | -93% | -6% | -64% | -68% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -71% | -6% | -40% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPAD, Z, ZG, COMP, EXPI. See OPEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3598.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
Compare to OZ, NMRK, HOUS, MMI, AHH
In The Past
Opendoor Technologies's stock fell -97.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -97.3% loss requires a 3598.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.1% | 1.1% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 1.1% | 1.1% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Opendoor Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,581 |
| Op Inc LTM | -65 |
| FCF LTM | 149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 187 |
| CFO LTM | 310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 310 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | -105.4 |
| P/E | -93.2 |
| P/CFO | 21.4 |
| Total Yield | -0.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 106.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.0% | 30.5% | 13.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -24.6% | -2.0% | 136.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.3% | -17.5% | -21.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.1% | -5.3% | 16.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -12.7% | -21.1% | 0.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.9% | 13.3% | 7.4% |
| 2/15/2024 | -10.4% | -14.3% | -14.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | -5.0% | -8.2% | 55.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 18.6% | 20.4% | 16.6% |
| Median Negative | -11.3% | -15.9% | -19.0% |
| Max Positive | 32.6% | 55.6% | 136.5% |
| Max Negative | -26.3% | -28.9% | -34.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |