Tearsheet

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.22 | Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $6.22
Market Cap: $4.6 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -204 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 956%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 220%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, and Online Marketplaces.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -32%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 770%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.5%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 165%
6   Key risks
OPEN key risks include [1] its iBuying model's extreme vulnerability to housing market downturns, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, and Online Marketplaces.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -204 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 956%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 220%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -32%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -34%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 770%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.5%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 165%
10 Key risks
OPEN key risks include [1] its iBuying model's extreme vulnerability to housing market downturns, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OPEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that contributed to Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock movement during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Optimism surrounding Strategic Shift and New Leadership's Direction: Following its Q2 2025 earnings report in early August, Opendoor conveyed a strategic shift towards a distributed platform and emphasized its focus on software, automation, and AI under the leadership of new CEO Kaz Nejatian. This strategic pivot generated optimism, leading to a "dramatic" climb in Opendoor's shares between late July and mid-October 2025, as the stock surpassed its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Outlook: On November 6, 2025, Opendoor released its Q3 2025 earnings. While the report showed a year-over-year revenue decline and a widened net loss, the company outlined its "new operating philosophy" and reiterated a path to adjusted net income profitability by the end of 2026. The company also projected an increase in Q4 2025 acquisitions by at least 35% from Q3, indicating a commitment to rescaling acquisition volumes. However, the stock experienced "renewed volatility" following the report.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OPEN Return-36%-92%286%-64%321%
Peers Return-67%63%2%4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OPEN Win Rate50%50%25%58%25%25% 
Peers Win Rate35%32%50%43%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OPEN Max Drawdown-41%-93%-6%-64%-68% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-6%-40%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPAD, Z, ZG, COMP, EXPI. See OPEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOPENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3598.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days

Compare to OZ, NMRK, HOUS, MMI, AHH


In The Past

Opendoor Technologies's stock fell -97.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -97.3% loss requires a 3598.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)

Better Bets than Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OPEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Opendoor Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OPENOPADZZGCOMPEXPIMedian
NameOpendoor.Offerpad.Zillow Zillow Compass eXp World 
Mkt Price6.121.4868.7767.5410.5310.0010.27
Mkt Cap4.50.016.716.46.01.65.2
Rev LTM4,7196282,4832,4836,6424,6793,581
Op Inc LTM-204-40-90-90-38-15-65
FCF LTM88744149149188108149
FCF 3Y Avg1,34923018718733167187
CFO LTM89950418418202119310
CFO 3Y Avg1,37423238738750176310

Growth & Margins

OPENOPADZZGCOMPEXPIMedian
NameOpendoor.Offerpad.Zillow Zillow Compass eXp World 
Rev Chg LTM-4.5%-36.2%15.2%15.2%24.3%5.1%10.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-31.7%-45.9%7.0%7.0%2.8%-0.1%1.3%
Rev Chg Q-33.6%-36.2%16.4%16.4%23.6%6.9%11.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-8.9%-10.7%4.0%4.0%5.6%1.9%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-4.3%-6.3%-3.6%-3.6%-0.6%-0.3%-3.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.4%-7.5%-8.5%-8.5%-3.9%0.1%-6.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.4%1.9%1.9%0.1%-0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM19.1%7.9%16.8%16.8%3.0%2.5%12.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.2%14.5%17.8%17.8%0.6%4.0%14.9%
FCF/Rev LTM18.8%7.1%6.0%6.0%2.8%2.3%6.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.8%14.2%8.8%8.8%0.3%3.8%8.8%

Valuation

OPENOPADZZGCOMPEXPIMedian
NameOpendoor.Offerpad.Zillow Zillow Compass eXp World 
Mkt Cap4.50.016.716.46.01.65.2
P/S1.30.27.57.30.70.41.0
P/EBIT-32.7-3.3-2,333.9-2,254.8-80.6-112.9-96.8
P/E-18.7-2.4-583.5-563.7-80.6-86.7-83.6
P/CFO6.62.644.743.222.514.118.3
Total Yield-5.4%-42.1%-0.2%-0.2%-1.2%0.7%-0.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg60.3%87.0%1.4%1.4%-1.3%7.8%4.6%
D/E0.31.20.00.00.10.00.1
Net D/E0.11.0-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.0

Returns

OPENOPADZZGCOMPEXPIMedian
NameOpendoor.Offerpad.Zillow Zillow Compass eXp World 
1M Rtn-21.9%-14.5%0.5%0.7%12.3%-4.7%-2.1%
3M Rtn-40.1%-68.1%-23.9%-22.2%11.3%-9.9%-23.0%
6M Rtn956.1%55.8%1.8%2.4%78.2%13.2%34.5%
12M Rtn220.4%-57.8%-14.9%-12.9%57.2%-18.8%-13.9%
3Y Rtn385.7%-81.2%90.8%92.9%294.4%-11.5%91.8%
1M Excs Rtn-22.7%-15.2%-0.2%-0.1%11.5%-5.4%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-39.8%-66.6%-24.9%-23.2%7.3%-14.7%-24.1%
6M Excs Rtn943.7%43.4%-10.5%-10.0%65.8%0.8%22.1%
12M Excs Rtn207.7%-74.0%-25.0%-23.2%44.5%-31.7%-24.1%
3Y Excs Rtn253.6%-153.1%25.6%27.6%230.4%-83.8%26.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Residential real estate product and service offerings6,94615,5678,0212,5834,741
Total6,94615,5678,0212,5834,741


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity112,908,165
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.3%
Average Daily Volume125,626,199
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity741,939,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20250.0%30.5%13.0%
8/5/2025-24.6%-2.0%136.5%
2/27/2025-6.3%-17.5%-21.0%
11/7/2024-1.1%-5.3%16.6%
8/1/2024-12.7%-21.1%0.9%
5/2/20248.9%13.3%7.4%
2/15/2024-10.4%-14.3%-14.0%
11/2/2023-5.0%-8.2%55.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive669
# Negative12129
Median Positive18.6%20.4%16.6%
Median Negative-11.3%-15.9%-19.0%
Max Positive32.6%55.6%136.5%
Max Negative-26.3%-28.9%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021