Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EXPI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that likely contributed to the stock movement of eXp World (EXPI) during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025, including a notable decline of -7.83% over a 10-day period leading up to December 11, 2025: 1. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Downgrades

While some analysts maintained "Strong Buy" ratings for EXPI during this period, there was also a "Reduce" consensus rating from a subset of analysts (two sell ratings and one buy rating). Notably, Zacks Research downgraded EXPI from "Hold" to "Strong Sell" on November 10, 2025, which could have put downward pressure on the stock. 2. Decrease in Agent Count

eXp World Holdings reported a slight decrease of 2% year-over-year in the number of agents and brokers on its eXp Realty platform, reaching 83,446 as of September 30, 2025. Despite overall revenue growth, a decline in agent count can be perceived as a challenge for a company reliant on its agent network.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EXPI Return457%7%-67%42%-25%-6%100%
Peers Return-70%21%17%95%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EXPI Win Rate67%42%25%50%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate32%48%47%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EXPI Max Drawdown-38%-26%-69%-2%-40%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-73%-32%-43%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOUS, COMP, REAX, FTHM, DOUG. See EXPI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEXPIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-87.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven689.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-63.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven175.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven576 days120 days

Compare to JLL, OPEN, VAC, CLBZ, GTSG


In The Past

eXp World's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -87.3% loss requires a 689.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About eXp World (EXPI)

Better Bets than eXp World (EXPI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EXPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.3%0.3%-5.8%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-27.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.3%0.3%-5.8%
VAC_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-27.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for eXp World

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EXPIHOUSCOMPREAXFTHMDOUGMedian
NameeXp WorldAnywhere.Compass Real Bro.Fathom Douglas . 
Mkt Price10.6014.5910.744.231.242.837.42
Mkt Cap1.71.66.10.90.00.21.3
Rev LTM4,6795,8746,6421,8144221,0313,246
Op Inc LTM-1576-38-10-15-34-15
FCF LTM108-4118866-12-1327
FCF 3Y Avg16733341-11-3118
CFO LTM1195220270-9-861
CFO 3Y Avg176855043-8-2547

Growth & Margins

EXPIHOUSCOMPREAXFTHMDOUGMedian
NameeXp WorldAnywhere.Compass Real Bro.Fathom Douglas . 
Rev Chg LTM5.1%5.3%24.3%65.6%32.8%6.7%15.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.1%-7.2%2.8%75.5%1.9%-5.8%0.9%
Rev Chg Q6.9%5.9%23.6%52.6%37.7%-1.3%15.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%1.6%5.6%12.1%8.1%-0.3%3.7%
Op Mgn LTM-0.3%1.3%-0.6%-0.6%-3.5%-3.3%-0.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.1%0.5%-3.9%-2.0%-5.9%-5.2%-2.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%1.0%-0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM2.5%0.9%3.0%3.9%-2.1%-0.8%1.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%1.5%0.6%3.6%-2.2%-2.6%1.1%
FCF/Rev LTM2.3%-0.7%2.8%3.6%-2.9%-1.2%0.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.8%0.1%0.3%3.5%-2.9%-3.2%0.2%

Valuation

EXPIHOUSCOMPREAXFTHMDOUGMedian
NameeXp WorldAnywhere.Compass Real Bro.Fathom Douglas . 
Mkt Cap1.71.66.10.90.00.21.3
P/S0.40.20.70.50.10.20.3
P/EBIT-112.959.3-80.6-82.6-2.7-4.5-42.5
P/E-86.7-9.3-80.6-86.8-1.8-4.1-44.9
P/CFO14.122.822.513.1-4.1-28.613.6
Total Yield0.7%-10.8%-1.2%-1.2%-54.1%-24.5%-6.0%
Dividend Yield1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.8%1.5%-1.3%6.2%-19.0%-17.1%0.1%
D/E0.02.60.10.00.40.60.2
Net D/E-0.12.50.1-0.10.2-0.00.0

Returns

EXPIHOUSCOMPREAXFTHMDOUGMedian
NameeXp WorldAnywhere.Compass Real Bro.Fathom Douglas . 
1M Rtn-2.8%15.4%13.2%9.6%13.8%13.2%13.2%
3M Rtn-4.5%104.3%14.9%-14.9%-56.0%4.0%-0.2%
6M Rtn20.0%265.7%72.4%3.2%2.5%1.4%11.6%
12M Rtn-15.8%243.3%58.6%-18.0%-36.7%41.5%12.8%
3Y Rtn-10.7%90.0%280.9%235.7%-79.3%-26.3%39.7%
1M Excs Rtn-1.5%15.5%13.4%3.5%1.2%8.8%6.1%
3M Excs Rtn-10.2%98.9%12.3%-20.1%-59.4%-1.8%-6.0%
6M Excs Rtn5.7%251.4%58.2%-11.1%-11.7%-12.8%-2.7%
12M Excs Rtn-30.4%208.9%42.3%-30.0%-50.2%26.3%-1.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.3%29.9%233.3%154.4%-151.4%-96.7%-26.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
North American Realty4,2204,553   
International Realty5436   
Other Affiliated Services55   
Segment eliminations-5-4   
Virbela 8   
Single Segment  3,7711,798980
Total4,2744,5983,7711,798980


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North American Realty91103   
Impairment expense00   
Litigation contingency0    
Other Affiliated Services-4-3   
Corporate expenses and other-8-10   
Stock option expense-11-14   
Depreciation and amortization expense-11-17   
International Realty-14-14   
Stock compensation expense-43-31   
Virbela -10   
Total15   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,963,265
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202547.1%
Average Daily Volume2,110,587
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.04
Basic Shares Quantity157,101,785
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/202511.3%12.9% 
7/31/2025-12.6%-5.0%0.9%
5/6/2025-14.0%-8.3%1.1%
2/20/2025-9.5%-10.0%-11.7%
11/7/2024-5.1%-8.2%-11.7%
7/31/2024-10.6%-17.7%-14.3%
2/22/2024-1.6%18.2%-11.6%
11/2/20231.7%-13.7%-5.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive777
# Negative121212
Median Positive12.9%13.1%1.7%
Median Negative-4.7%-9.6%-13.2%
Max Positive36.0%45.4%96.7%
Max Negative-14.0%-37.2%-33.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021