eXp World (EXPI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.985 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services
eXp World (EXPI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.985Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% | ||
| Key risksEXPI key risks include [1] challenges to the agent growth and retention that is critical to its unique revenue-sharing model and [2] regulatory and legal pressures that could force fundamental changes to its agent compensation structure. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Key risksEXPI key risks include [1] challenges to the agent growth and retention that is critical to its unique revenue-sharing model and [2] regulatory and legal pressures that could force fundamental changes to its agent compensation structure. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXPI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The -7.2% movement in eXp World (EXPI) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Persistent Negative Sentiment from Q2 2025 Results. Although reported on August 1, 2025, just before the specified period, eXp World Holdings' disappointing second-quarter financial results, including a net loss of $0.01 per share that missed analyst estimates of a $0.09 profit, likely established a negative sentiment that continued to affect the stock's performance throughout the remainder of 2025.
2. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates. The company reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings with an EPS of $0.02, significantly missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.08. While revenue saw a 7% year-over-year increase, the earnings shortfall likely contributed to investor disappointment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXPI Return | 457% | 7% | -67% | 42% | -25% | -11% | 90% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -70% | 21% | 17% | 89% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXPI Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 32% | 48% | 47% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXPI Max Drawdown | -38% | -26% | -69% | -2% | -40% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -73% | -32% | -43% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOUS, COMP, REAX, FTHM, DOUG. See EXPI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXPI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 689.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 576 days | 120 days |
Compare to JLL, OPEN, VAC, CLBZ, GTSG
In The Past
eXp World's stock fell -87.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -87.3% loss requires a 689.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| eXp World Earnings Notes | ||
| How Low Can eXp World Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | |
| eXp World (EXPI) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| EXPI Dip Buy Analysis |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| 10102025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.9% | -8.9% | -27.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| 10102025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.9% | -8.9% | -27.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for eXp World
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,246 |
| Op Inc LTM | -15 |
| FCF LTM | 27 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 18 |
| CFO LTM | 61 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 47 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | -42.5 |
| P/E | -44.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Realty | 4,220 | 4,553 | |||
| International Realty | 54 | 36 | |||
| Other Affiliated Services | 5 | 5 | |||
| Segment eliminations | -5 | -4 | |||
| Virbela | 8 | ||||
| Single Segment | 3,771 | 1,798 | 980 | ||
| Total | 4,274 | 4,598 | 3,771 | 1,798 | 980 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Realty | 91 | 103 | |||
| Impairment expense | 0 | 0 | |||
| Litigation contingency | 0 | ||||
| Other Affiliated Services | -4 | -3 | |||
| Corporate expenses and other | -8 | -10 | |||
| Stock option expense | -11 | -14 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization expense | -11 | -17 | |||
| International Realty | -14 | -14 | |||
| Stock compensation expense | -43 | -31 | |||
| Virbela | -10 | ||||
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 8.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | -12.6% | -5.0% | 0.9% |
| 5/6/2025 | -14.0% | -8.3% | 1.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -9.5% | -10.0% | -11.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.1% | -8.2% | -11.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -10.6% | -17.7% | -14.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | -1.6% | 18.2% | -11.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.7% | -13.7% | -5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.9% | 13.1% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -9.6% | -13.2% |
| Max Positive | 36.0% | 45.4% | 96.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -37.2% | -33.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |