Compass (COMP)
Market Price (1/15/2026): $12.21 | Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services
Compass (COMP)
Market Price (1/15/2026): $12.21Market Cap: $6.9 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Digital Real Estate Platforms, Real Estate Brokerage Technology, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% | |
| Key risksCOMP key risks include [1] regulatory and litigation uncertainty surrounding its proprietary "Private Exclusive" and "Coming Soon" listing strategies and [2] its historical challenge of achieving consistent profitability due to high operational costs. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Digital Real Estate Platforms, Real Estate Brokerage Technology, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -38 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 118% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksCOMP key risks include [1] regulatory and litigation uncertainty surrounding its proprietary "Private Exclusive" and "Coming Soon" listing strategies and [2] its historical challenge of achieving consistent profitability due to high operational costs. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Based on projections available at the hypothetical current date of January 15, 2026, here are key points regarding Compass (COMP) from the specified time frame, noting these are future outlooks rather than historical movements:
1. Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets: As of early 2026, Compass (COMP) had a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from Wall Street analysts, with some analysts upgrading its status. For instance, Barclays raised Compass's status to Overweight from Equal Weight in January 2026, setting a price target of $13, up from $9. The average twelve-month stock price forecast for Compass was $11.67, with a high forecast of $15.00 and a low forecast of $8.00.
2. Positive Housing Market Outlook: Compass released its Housing Market Outlook in December 2025, forecasting that 2026 would bring the most balanced housing market in years. This outlook projected improved affordability due to wages growing faster than home prices, increased inventory, and a return to American mobility. Nationally, home prices were expected to be flat with a modest growth of +0.5%, inventory to grow 5%, and mortgage rates to average around 6.4%, supporting higher sales. Existing home sales were forecast to increase by 4.25% to 5% from 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.5% change in COMP stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 10312025 | 1142026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.71 | 12.30 | 59.53% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6290.20 | 6642.20 | 5.60% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.69 | 1.05 | 52.59% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 560.31 | 565.90 | -1.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.52% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COMP | 59.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 1.2% | -1.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.9% change in COMP stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 7312025 | 1142026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.94 | 12.30 | 54.91% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5931.20 | 6642.20 | 11.99% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.74 | 1.05 | 42.29% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 550.15 | 565.90 | -2.86% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.78% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COMP | 54.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 0.7% | 20.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 69.7% change in COMP stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 1312025 | 1142026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.25 | 12.30 | 69.66% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5345.10 | 6642.20 | 24.27% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.69 | 1.05 | 52.69% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 505.99 | 565.90 | -11.84% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.28% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COMP | 69.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.7% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 2.3% | 23.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 206.0% change in COMP stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 293.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 1312023 | 1142026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.02 | 12.30 | 205.97% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6522.90 | 6642.20 | 1.83% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.27 | 1.05 | 293.19% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 432.46 | 565.90 | -30.86% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 176.84% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COMP | 206.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.2% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 11.9% | 40.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COMP Return | -55% | -74% | 61% | 56% | 81% | 15% | -40% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -60% | 32% | -26% | 87% | 7% | -26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COMP Win Rate | 22% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 31% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COMP Max Drawdown | -57% | -80% | -19% | -22% | -9% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -65% | -24% | -50% | -19% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HOUS, EXPI, ZG, DOUG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COMP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 989.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HOUS, EXPI, ZG, DOUG
In The Past
Compass's stock fell -90.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2021. A -90.8% loss requires a 989.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Compass (COMP):
- Shopify for real estate agents.
- A tech-first RE/MAX.
- Salesforce for real estate agents.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Residential Real Estate Brokerage Services: Facilitating the buying and selling of homes and other residential properties, where Compass agents assist clients through the entire transaction process.
- Technology Platform for Real Estate Agents: Providing a proprietary suite of integrated software tools and applications designed to enhance agent productivity, marketing, and client management within the real estate transaction lifecycle.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlCompass (COMP) primarily serves individual homebuyers and sellers through its network of real estate agents and technology platform. The company's revenue is generated from commissions on real estate transactions involving these individuals.
Categories of Customers Served by Compass (COMP):
- First-time Homebuyers: Individuals or families making their initial purchase of a residential property. Compass agents assist them in navigating the complexities of the homebuying process, from property search to closing.
- Repeat Homebuyers and Sellers: This broad category includes individuals and families who are upgrading to a larger home, downsizing, relocating for work or personal reasons, or selling an existing property to purchase another. They often have prior experience with real estate transactions but seek professional guidance and market expertise.
- Luxury Market Clients: High-net-worth individuals seeking to buy or sell premium and high-value properties. Compass has a significant presence in the luxury real estate market, offering specialized services, marketing, and agent expertise tailored to this discerning clientele.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Robert Reffkin, Founder & CEO
Robert Reffkin co-founded Compass in 2012, inspired by his mother's experiences as a real estate agent. Under his leadership, Compass grew to become the #1 real estate brokerage in the United States, achieving half a trillion dollars in real estate sales and going public in 2021. Prior to Compass, Reffkin held roles at McKinsey & Company, Lazard, and Goldman Sachs, where he was Chief of Staff to the President & Chief Operating Officer. He also served as a White House Fellow, working for the Secretary of the Treasury. Reffkin founded the non-profit "America Needs You" (formerly New York Needs You) in 2009 to support first-generation college students. He also started a DJ business in high school.
Kalani Reelitz, Chief Financial Officer
Kalani Reelitz serves as the Chief Financial Officer at Compass, overseeing the company's financial strategy and operations. He is responsible for ensuring financial stability, driving growth through strategic financial planning, and optimizing financial processes. Before joining Compass, Reelitz held leadership roles at Cushman & Wakefield and Walgreens, where he gained extensive experience in financial planning and analysis.
Ori Allon, Founder & Chief Strategist
Ori Allon is a co-founder of Compass. He is a technologist and entrepreneur known for building software-driven businesses that create personalized experiences for consumers. His background in technology includes serving as Director of Engineering at Twitter. Allon also founded Julpan, which was acquired by Twitter, and Orion, which was acquired by Google.
Neda Navab, President
Neda Navab is the President at Compass, where she is focused on realizing the company's mission across the United States. She oversees brokerage operations and drives strategic initiatives. Before joining Compass, Navab was the Director of Urban Systems at Sidewalk Labs, a division of Google that focused on building smart cities. She also held significant roles at Enjoy Technology, Inc., and Box, and built programs to support female entrepreneurs in East Africa. Navab began her career as a management consultant at McKinsey & Co.
Rory Golod, President of Growth & Communications
Rory Golod serves as the President of Growth & Communications at Compass, where he is responsible for overseeing growth strategies and communication efforts for the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Compass (COMP) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the cyclical nature of the real estate market, potential regulatory shifts, and the ongoing challenge of achieving consistent profitability.
- Housing Market Weakness and Affordability Challenges: Compass's business is highly susceptible to macroeconomic headwinds and the cyclicality of the residential real estate market. Factors such as high mortgage interest rates, low home inventory levels, and broader economic downturns can significantly suppress buyer demand and affordability, directly impacting transaction volumes and gross commission income. The company's performance is closely tied to the overall health of the U.S. real estate industry.
- Regulatory Changes and Antitrust Litigation: The real estate industry is facing increased scrutiny, particularly concerning commission structures and agent compensation models. Ongoing antitrust class-action litigation, including lawsuits against the National Association of Realtors (NAR), could lead to significant changes in how real estate agents are compensated and how commissions are split. Additionally, there is regulatory uncertainty surrounding Compass's "Private Exclusive" and "Coming Soon" listing strategies, which could be impacted by rules like the National Association of Realtors' Clear Cooperation Rule.
- Challenges in Achieving Consistent Profitability and Managing Operational Costs: While Compass has been focused on cost reduction and aims to achieve positive EBITDA and free cash flow, its historical operational costs have been high. The company's ability to consistently generate free cash flow and achieve sustained GAAP profitability is crucial to justifying its valuation and ensuring long-term financial health. The business model relies heavily on agent performance and retention, and high operational expenses associated with technology and support services remain a factor to manage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following are clear emerging threats to Compass (COMP):
eXp Realty's (EXPI) continued aggressive growth and agent-centric cloud-based brokerage model: eXp Realty's virtual-first structure offers significantly lower overhead costs and more attractive commission splits and stock incentives to agents compared to Compass's hybrid model. This enables eXp to continuously attract and retain top-performing agents, directly challenging Compass's value proposition of a premium technology platform while maintaining higher operating costs.
Zillow Group's (ZG, Z) increasing integration into the real estate transaction process and expansion of its agent-enabling platform tools: Zillow is evolving beyond a simple listing portal and lead generator to offer more comprehensive services and tools directly to real estate agents and consumers, aiming to become a "housing super app." This includes programs like Zillow Flex, AI-powered tools, and a focus on streamlining the entire transaction. By empowering agents directly and becoming a central hub for transaction management, Zillow poses a threat to Compass's role as the primary technology platform and support system for agents, potentially disintermediating traditional brokerages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Compass (symbol: COMP) primarily operates as a residential real estate brokerage in the United States, providing an end-to-end technology platform to empower its agents in buying, selling, and renting properties. The company also offers ancillary services such as mortgage, title, and escrow, as well as the Compass Concierge program for home sellers.
The addressable market for Compass's main products and services is detailed below:
- U.S. Residential Real Estate Market: The United States real estate market size, which includes residential properties, was valued at approximately USD 1.71 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.32 trillion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.10% from 2025 to 2033. Residential property accounted for a 57.1% share of the U.S. real estate market in 2024.
- Global Residential Real Estate Market: The global residential real estate market was valued at USD 11.59 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 15.53 trillion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 6.01%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Compass Inc. (COMP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Continued Agent Growth and Retention: Compass consistently emphasizes its ability to attract and retain top-tier real estate agents, outperforming the overall market in agent additions. For instance, the company added a record 851 principal agents organically in a recent quarter, surpassing its own estimates, and projects approximately 20% agent growth through 2025. This focus on expanding its agent base directly contributes to an increase in transactions and overall revenue.
- Market Share Expansion: The company has a stated strategy of expanding its market share and has demonstrated consistent outperformance in transaction and Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth compared to the broader U.S. residential real estate market. Compass has reported significant market share gains, with an increase of 95 basis points quarter over quarter as of May 2025, and has outperformed the market on an organic basis for 18 consecutive quarters.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: Acquisitions, such as the Christie's International Real Estate acquisition which contributed 10.4% to revenue growth and a significant portion of agent additions, are a notable driver. Furthermore, the transformative merger with Anywhere Real Estate, anticipated to close in the second half of 2026, is expected to further boost revenue and margins.
- Growth in Ancillary Services: Compass is expanding its offerings in high-margin ancillary services, particularly title and escrow. The company has noted significant growth in these services, and improvements in their "attach rate" are contributing to increased revenue per transaction.
- Leveraging Technology and AI: The integration of advanced technology and artificial intelligence, such as Compass AI 2.0, is aimed at enhancing agent productivity and client satisfaction. This technological edge is expected to improve efficiency, potentially convert a large base of CRM contacts into active listings, and thereby indirectly contribute to revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Compass, Inc. priced its initial public offering of 25,000,000 shares of Class A common stock at $18.00 per share in March 2021.
- The underwriters for the IPO had a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 3,750,000 shares of Class A common stock.
- For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company recorded $10.8 million in proceeds from the exercise of stock options and $2.9 million from the issuance of common stock under its Employee Stock Purchase Plan.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2025, Compass, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement to combine with Anywhere Real Estate Inc. in an all-stock transaction, which is expected to result in a combined company with an enterprise value of approximately $10 billion, including assumed debt.
- This acquisition is anticipated to diversify Compass' revenue streams by adding over $1 billion from Anywhere's established franchise, title and escrow, and relocation operations.
- Other acquisitions made by Compass in 2025 include Christie's International Real Estate (closed January 2025), Washington Fine Properties (closed February 2025), and a title company in Texas (closed April 2025).
Capital Expenditures
- Compass's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged $38.08 million.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $70.1 million in December 2022 and reached a 5-year low of $11.2 million in December 2023.
- For the latest twelve months ending June 30, 2025, Compass reported capital expenditures of $16.8 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Compass Earnings Notes | ||
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| How Does Compass Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | |
| Compass (COMP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Compass (COMP) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| Compass (COMP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Compass (COMP) EBITDA Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Compass
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,581 |
| Op Inc LTM | -36 |
| FCF LTM | 129 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 100 |
| CFO LTM | 160 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 113 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | -110.5 |
| P/E | -99.0 |
| P/CFO | 23.2 |
| Total Yield | -0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/01/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.34 | $8.22 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.0% | 49.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.7% | 62.0% |
| Downside Capture | -112.50 | 69.90 |
| Upside Capture | 185.47 | 136.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.8% | 32.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.12 | 1.02 | 0.93 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.78 |
| Up Beta | 0.45 | 2.47 | 2.15 | 2.74 | 0.78 | 1.26 |
| Down Beta | 2.08 | 0.57 | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.29 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | -49% | 246% | 119% | 107% | 180% | 4100% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 130 | 363 |
| Down Capture | -83% | -40% | -25% | -47% | 97% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 33 | 63 | 117 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullSEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K (12/31/2021) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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