Zillow (ZG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $67.85 | Market Cap: $16.4 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Zillow (ZG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $67.85Market Cap: $16.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Key risksZG key risks include [1] direct competitive encroachment from tech giants like Google entering the real estate search market, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Key risksZG key risks include [1] direct competitive encroachment from tech giants like Google entering the real estate search market, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ZG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -17.1% stock movement for Zillow (ZG) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Google's Entry into Real Estate Listings. Zillow's stock experienced significant declines around mid-December 2025, with drops of approximately 7.86% over a week and 10-11% on December 15th, following reports that Google began testing for-sale real estate listings directly within its search results. This development introduced a new competitive threat, leading to concerns about potential long-term impacts on Zillow's traffic and monetization capabilities.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss. Despite Zillow Group reporting strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, which exceeded revenue and Adjusted EBITDA outlooks, the company's reported EPS of $0.44 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.46 by $0.02. While revenue growth was robust, this slight miss on profitability metrics likely contributed to investor caution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ZG Return | 197% | -54% | -50% | 82% | 25% | -3% | 51% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -51% | 88% | -8% | 76% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ZG Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 42% | 32% | 57% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ZG Max Drawdown | -49% | -61% | -57% | 0% | -32% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -61% | -11% | -30% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSGP, NWSA, COMP, OPEN, EXPI. See ZG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ZG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 654.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 459 days | 120 days |
Compare to RBA, Z, WEX, FOUR, TNET
In The Past
Zillow's stock fell -86.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -86.7% loss requires a 654.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ZG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10102025 | WEX | WEX | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -9.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10102025 | WEX | WEX | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -9.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Zillow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,699 |
| Op Inc LTM | -60 |
| FCF LTM | 168 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 177 |
| CFO LTM | 390 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 416 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | -96.8 |
| P/E | -49.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.0 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 1,945 | 1,958 | |||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 1,886 | 1,450 | 1,277 | ||
| Mortgages | 246 | 174 | 101 | ||
| Homes | 1,715 | 1,365 | |||
| Total | 1,945 | 1,958 | 2,132 | 3,340 | 2,743 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -270 | ||||
| Homes | -254 | -303 | -45 | ||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 545 | 258 | 80 | ||
| Mortgages | -52 | 4 | -282 | ||
| Total | -270 | 239 | -41 | -247 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -158 | ||||
| Total | -158 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 4.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 4.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.5% |
| 2/11/2025 | -10.7% | -8.6% | -20.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | 25.0% | 28.8% | 41.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 18.2% | 28.5% | 27.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -5.4% | -0.6% | -3.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | 7.6% | -0.8% | 2.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 10.8% | 4.9% | 14.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.4% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 25.0% | 30.0% | 41.4% |
| Max Negative | -23.0% | -22.1% | -54.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |