Tearsheet

Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.855 | Market Cap: $58.0 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services

Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.855
Market Cap: $58.0 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 34%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -46%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 261%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 207%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 34%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -46%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 261%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 207%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OPAD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) stock: 1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results and Weak Outlook. Offerpad reported disappointing third-quarter 2025 results on November 3, 2025, with revenue falling 36.2% year-on-year to $132.7 million, significantly missing consensus estimates. The GAAP loss of $0.37 per share was wider than analysts anticipated, and the number of homes sold dropped by 40.3% year-on-year. Furthermore, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter implied a continued sales decline, which further fueled investor concerns.

2. Persistent Revenue Decline and Reduced Sales Volume. Offerpad has consistently experienced declining revenue and a decrease in homes sold. For the third quarter of 2025, revenue was down 17.2% from the previous quarter and 36.23% year-over-year. This trend of decreasing top-line earnings reflects ongoing challenges in its core instant home-buying (iBuying) business.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OPAD Return--42%-93%48%-72%-39%-99%
Peers Return4%10%-39%72%-13%74%80%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OPAD Win Rate 8%8%42%25%20% 
Peers Win Rate50%48%40%52%38%25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OPAD Max Drawdown--42%-93%-9%-74%-68% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-21%-47%-10%-23%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPEN, MAYS, GBR, GYRO, CLBZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOPADS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4654.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-1.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to OPEN, MAYS, GBR, GYRO, CLBZ


In The Past

Offerpad Solutions's stock fell -97.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.9% loss requires a 4654.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)

Better Bets than Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0DASHBOARDS  
1Is Offerpad Solutions Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?Return 
2ARTICLES  
3Offerpad Stock Worth The Risk? August 29th, 2025

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OPAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Offerpad Solutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OPADOPENMAYSGBRGYROCLBZMedian
NameOfferpad.Opendoor.J. W. Ma.New Conc.Gyrodyne Collab Z  
Mkt Price1.836.9438.500.769.50-6.94
Mkt Cap0.15.10.10.00.0-0.1
Rev LTM6284,7192205214
Op Inc LTM-40-204-0-0-30-1
FCF LTM448870-0-210
FCF 3Y Avg2301,3490049-49
CFO LTM508993-0-212
CFO 3Y Avg2321,3742049-49

Growth & Margins

OPADOPENMAYSGBRGYROCLBZMedian
NameOfferpad.Opendoor.J. W. Ma.New Conc.Gyrodyne Collab Z  
Rev Chg LTM-36.2%-4.5%4.1%4.1%-1.2%--1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-45.9%-31.7%1.7%5.8%2.1%-1.7%
Rev Chg Q-36.2%-33.6%3.0%8.1%-1.8%-72.9%-17.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-10.7%-8.9%0.7%2.0%-0.2%-14.4%-4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-6.3%-4.3%-0.7%-166.9%-50.0%18.1%-5.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.5%-5.4%-0.9%-141.8%-153.7%--7.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.4%-0.2%-1.3%2.6%-28.2%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM7.9%19.1%11.2%-26.5%-43.8%44.8%9.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.5%15.2%9.2%0.0%1,138.1%-14.5%
FCF/Rev LTM7.1%18.8%0.6%-26.5%-43.8%42.3%3.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.2%14.8%0.3%0.0%1,136.7%-14.2%

Valuation

OPADOPENMAYSGBRGYROCLBZMedian
NameOfferpad.Opendoor.J. W. Ma.New Conc.Gyrodyne Collab Z  
Mkt Cap0.15.10.10.00.0-0.1
P/S0.21.33.438.20.2-1.3
P/EBIT-3.3-32.7-600.8-22.9-0.5--22.9
P/E-2.4-18.7-562.2-94.623.9--18.7
P/CFO2.66.630.4-144.3-0.5-2.6
Total Yield-42.1%-5.4%-0.2%-1.1%4.2%--1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg87.0%60.3%0.1%0.1%3,141.7%-60.3%
D/E1.20.30.40.014.6-0.4
Net D/E1.00.10.3-0.13.6-0.3

Returns

OPADOPENMAYSGBRGYROCLBZMedian
NameOfferpad.Opendoor.J. W. Ma.New Conc.Gyrodyne Collab Z  
1M Rtn-20.4%-8.6%0.7%-17.0%-5.1%--8.6%
3M Rtn-63.3%35.3%1.3%-21.8%-6.9%--6.9%
6M Rtn77.7%1,005.8%3.1%-22.8%15.0%-15.0%
12M Rtn-63.7%221.3%-8.3%-34.4%1.7%--8.3%
3Y Rtn-81.6%305.8%-20.7%-41.9%7.8%--20.7%
1M Excs Rtn-20.4%-8.5%0.8%-17.0%-5.0%--8.5%
3M Excs Rtn-67.8%11.1%-4.0%-28.7%-12.5%--12.5%
6M Excs Rtn62.9%991.1%-11.6%-37.6%0.3%-0.3%
12M Excs Rtn-76.4%183.0%-21.9%-50.1%-17.8%--21.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-155.9%208.5%-93.3%-117.7%-66.1%--93.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,398,289
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume1,606,338
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.12
Basic Shares Quantity31,281,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021