Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.855 | Market Cap: $58.0 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Services
Offerpad Solutions (OPAD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.855Market Cap: $58.0 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -46%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 261% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 207% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Real Estate Data Analytics, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -133%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -46%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 261% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 207% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPAD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) stock:
1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results and Weak Outlook. Offerpad reported disappointing third-quarter 2025 results on November 3, 2025, with revenue falling 36.2% year-on-year to $132.7 million, significantly missing consensus estimates. The GAAP loss of $0.37 per share was wider than analysts anticipated, and the number of homes sold dropped by 40.3% year-on-year. Furthermore, the company's revenue guidance for the fourth quarter implied a continued sales decline, which further fueled investor concerns.
2. Persistent Revenue Decline and Reduced Sales Volume. Offerpad has consistently experienced declining revenue and a decrease in homes sold. For the third quarter of 2025, revenue was down 17.2% from the previous quarter and 36.23% year-over-year. This trend of decreasing top-line earnings reflects ongoing challenges in its core instant home-buying (iBuying) business.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPAD Return | - | -42% | -93% | 48% | -72% | -39% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 10% | -39% | 72% | -13% | 74% | 80% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPAD Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 42% | 25% | 20% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 48% | 40% | 52% | 38% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPAD Max Drawdown | - | -42% | -93% | -9% | -74% | -68% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -21% | -47% | -10% | -23% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPEN, MAYS, GBR, GYRO, CLBZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPAD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4654.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -1.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to OPEN, MAYS, GBR, GYRO, CLBZ
In The Past
Offerpad Solutions's stock fell -97.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -97.9% loss requires a 4654.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Offerpad Solutions Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Offerpad Stock Worth The Risk? | August 29th, 2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |
| Is Offerpad Solutions Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | |
| ARTICLES | |
| Offerpad Stock Worth The Risk? |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Offerpad Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 14 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1 |
| FCF LTM | 0 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 49 |
| CFO LTM | 2 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 49 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | -22.9 |
| P/E | -18.7 |
| P/CFO | 2.6 |
| Total Yield | -1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 60.3% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |