OPAL Fuels (OPAL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.085 | Market Cap: $59.0 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
OPAL Fuels (OPAL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.085Market Cap: $59.0 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.93 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% | |
| Key risksOPAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on volatile environmental credit revenue, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.93 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Key risksOPAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on volatile environmental credit revenue, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -10.6% stock movement for OPAL Fuels (OPAL) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. OPAL Fuels reported a revenue miss in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings. The company's revenue came in at $83.4 million, falling short of the anticipated $90.97 million by 8.32%, despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat. This revenue shortfall was a significant factor in investor concerns and contributed to an 11.39% drop in the stock price in after-hours trading following the earnings release.
2. The company experienced a notable decline in Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $19.5 million, down from $31.1 million in the same period last year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPAL Return | � | � | � | -24% | -39% | -33% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | 1% | 1% | 2% | -9% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPAL Win Rate | � | � | 60% | 58% | 50% | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 62% | 50% | 48% | 60% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPAL Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -27% | -46% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -15% | -21% | -22% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CLNE, MNTK, WM, RSG, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to UGI, SR, ATO, NFG, SWX
In The Past
OPAL Fuels's stock fell -53.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/9/2022. A -53.7% loss requires a 116.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for OPAL Fuels
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8,419 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,664 |
| FCF LTM | 1,216 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,021 |
| CFO LTM | 2,216 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,982 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.9 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 14.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 3.5% | 13.9% | 27.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -2.2% | 3.1% | -6.2% |
| 2/28/2025 | -3.6% | -6.0% | -26.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | 0.0% | -3.6% | -6.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 0.7% | -2.2% | -6.2% |
| 3/13/2024 | -1.4% | 1.0% | -2.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -3.2% | -1.3% | -7.6% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.2% | 0.4% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | 2.1% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.6% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 3.5% | 13.9% | 27.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -13.1% | -26.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 6272022 | 424B3 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |