Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.93
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
3   Key risks
OPAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on volatile environmental credit revenue, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Waste-to-Energy Solutions, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.93
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
8 Key risks
OPAL key risks include [1] its heavy reliance on volatile environmental credit revenue, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OPAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -10.6% stock movement for OPAL Fuels (OPAL) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. OPAL Fuels reported a revenue miss in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings. The company's revenue came in at $83.4 million, falling short of the anticipated $90.97 million by 8.32%, despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat. This revenue shortfall was a significant factor in investor concerns and contributed to an 11.39% drop in the stock price in after-hours trading following the earnings release.

2. The company experienced a notable decline in Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $19.5 million, down from $31.1 million in the same period last year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OPAL Return-24%-39%-33%
Peers Return1%1%2%-9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OPAL Win Rate60%58%50%17% 
Peers Win Rate62%50%48%60%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OPAL Max Drawdown-27%-46%-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-21%-22%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CLNE, MNTK, WM, RSG, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOPALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to UGI, SR, ATO, NFG, SWX


In The Past

OPAL Fuels's stock fell -53.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/9/2022. A -53.7% loss requires a 116.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About OPAL Fuels (OPAL)

Better Bets than OPAL Fuels (OPAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1OPAL Fuels Earnings Notes 
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OPAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for OPAL Fuels

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OPALCLNEMNTKWMRSGKMIMedian
NameOPAL Fue.Clean En.Montauk .Waste Ma.Republic.Kinder M. 
Mkt Price2.102.251.90219.77214.7326.6514.45
Mkt Cap0.10.50.388.666.959.329.9
Rev LTM32942216124,78416,50216,4168,419
Op Inc LTM-1-90-44,3723,3284,4591,664
FCF LTM-7430-532,4022,5292,7571,216
FCF 3Y Avg-72-17-252,0592,1183,3751,021
CFO LTM4194315,8564,3375,7352,216
CFO 3Y Avg4472455,1683,8935,9181,982

Growth & Margins

OPALCLNEMNTKWMRSGKMIMedian
NameOPAL Fue.Clean En.Montauk .Waste Ma.Republic.Kinder M. 
Rev Chg LTM7.3%2.0%-17.5%15.9%4.3%8.3%5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.3%2.1%-6.5%8.6%8.5%-4.3%5.3%
Rev Chg Q-0.8%1.2%-31.3%14.9%3.3%12.1%2.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%0.3%-11.4%3.5%0.8%2.8%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-21.3%-2.8%17.6%20.2%27.2%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.0%-15.8%10.3%18.4%19.3%27.6%14.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.7%-1.2%-10.7%-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM12.5%22.4%19.1%23.6%26.3%34.9%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.9%17.1%25.1%23.3%24.8%37.5%24.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-22.5%7.1%-33.2%9.7%15.3%16.8%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-26.6%-3.9%-14.8%9.3%13.5%21.5%2.7%

Valuation

OPALCLNEMNTKWMRSGKMIMedian
NameOPAL Fue.Clean En.Montauk .Waste Ma.Republic.Kinder M. 
Mkt Cap0.10.50.388.666.959.329.9
P/S0.21.31.83.64.33.82.7
P/EBIT--3.2-39.721.822.914.114.1
P/E5.6-2.7-31.334.733.923.114.3
P/CFO1.56.09.415.216.511.010.2
Total Yield17.9%-37.0%-3.2%4.3%4.0%8.4%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%1.0%4.1%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--1.5%-6.8%2.6%3.6%7.2%2.6%
D/E-0.70.30.30.20.50.3
Net D/E-0.30.20.30.20.50.3

Returns

OPALCLNEMNTKWMRSGKMIMedian
NameOPAL Fue.Clean En.Montauk .Waste Ma.Republic.Kinder M. 
1M Rtn-0.7%4.2%7.3%6.1%2.3%-1.8%3.3%
3M Rtn0.5%-14.4%-7.3%2.3%-4.8%-2.2%-3.5%
6M Rtn-36.0%14.2%-8.7%-5.0%-13.1%-1.2%-6.9%
12M Rtn-36.9%-17.0%-51.9%6.7%5.5%4.6%-6.2%
3Y Rtn-70.5%-61.4%-83.2%42.3%69.3%77.6%-9.5%
1M Excs Rtn-1.4%3.4%6.6%5.3%1.6%-2.5%2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-4.1%-17.7%-18.7%0.8%-6.4%-3.9%-5.2%
6M Excs Rtn-48.4%1.8%-21.0%-17.4%-25.5%-13.6%-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-50.2%-29.9%-63.8%-6.5%-7.2%-7.6%-18.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-133.5%-129.1%-152.4%-30.4%-5.6%7.9%-79.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil202420232022
Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Fuel342348216
Equity Method Investment(s)2075247
Fuel Station Services15312057
Renewable Power374344
Corporate15  
Corporate and other 8218
Total755645381


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,178,851
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.2%
Average Daily Volume199,436
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.93
Basic Shares Quantity28,279,527
Short % of Basic Shares7.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/7/20253.5%13.9%27.2%
8/7/2025-2.2%3.1%-6.2%
2/28/2025-3.6%-6.0%-26.4%
11/7/20240.0%-3.6%-6.0%
7/25/20240.7%-2.2%-6.2%
3/13/2024-1.4%1.0%-2.9%
10/31/2023-3.2%-1.3%-7.6%
7/20/2023-3.2%0.4%-2.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive442
# Negative779
Median Positive0.6%2.1%15.5%
Median Negative-3.2%-3.6%-6.2%
Max Positive3.5%13.9%27.2%
Max Negative-5.6%-13.1%-26.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022329202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
123120216272022424B3 12/31/2021